6976 Gopher Rd · Butterfield Park, NM 88012

$245,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · Other

Built 2026 1.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Remarkable opportunity on Gopher Road. 4 separately plotted lots each approximately 1.25 acres. These parcels offer an array of possibilities. Envision a site built home or a manufactured home, tailored to your unique preferences. With utilities easily accessible. Don't let this chance slip away to create your dream home or jump-start an investment venture. Perfect location for just off Hwy-70, WSMR, and NASA this property perfectly blends serene living with straightforward accessibility.

Key facts

• 1.25 acre lot
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-88 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Las Cruces Public Schools (urban): math 42% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #5 of 29 in NM (top 17%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.5%/yr); 591 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 964 units permitted in Doña Ana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,176 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.54%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-44,209
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-41,162
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88012

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 591
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,032 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$306 /mo · $3,675/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $-88

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,143

Max offer price $232,259

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $81	-5% $-3	+0% $-88	+5% $-173	+10% $-257
Rent	-10% $-249	-5% $-168	+0% $-88	+5% $-8	+10% $72
Rate	-1.0pp $35	-0.5pp $-26	base $-88	+0.5pp $-152	+1.0pp $-216

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9564 Hondo Rd Las Cruces, NM	4.0	2.0	1987	$1,500	$0.75	14d	1	0.24mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-17
   listed $245,000 Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,381
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$3,675
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,950
• − Management: −$1,950
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$5,271
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,265
• After-tax cash flow: $208/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Las Cruces Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501500
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 35.00%
• Median HH income: $41,157
• Composite: 45.98/100
• National rank: #2535
• State rank: #5 of 29 in NM

Livability — Butterfield Park

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Dona Ana County · 144,044 people
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• Population (ZIP): 33,158
• Household income: $69,052
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 717.0

Population outlook (Doña Ana County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 219,177 people
• By 2030: 220,967 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 222,775 · +1.6%
• By 2050: 223,576 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 228,461 · +4.2%
• By 2100: 214,536 · -2.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% White 32% Two or more races 25% Native American 2% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Russian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 33%

Political lean MEDSL · Doña Ana

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.8% · R 44.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+18.0 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.04%
• Current HPI: 185.7733
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.52%
• Metro: Las Cruces, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+226.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Delisted — SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-06-13 Listed $245,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-03-06 Sold (MLS) — SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-02-08 Pending — SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $50,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-06-18 Price Changed $64,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-01-10 Price Changed $68,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2024-06-26 Listed $75,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $269 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.