26554 Jolly Prairie Dr · Houston, TX 77447

$300,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,550 sqft · Land · 41 Days on market

Built 2026 4,971 sqft lot $103/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 1% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this stunning Melrose plan by Highland Homes, perfectly positioned in the highly sought-after Jubilee community in Hockley! Built with the quality and craftmanship you expect only in a Highland Home! This beautiful 1-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, a 2-car garage. Thoughtfully designed living and kitchen space ideal for everyday comfort and entertaining. Already includes FULL sprinkler system, FULL gutters, FULL drainage system, TANKLESS water heater, etc. .. Hurry before is gone!

Key facts

• Full drainage system
• Full gutters
• 4,971 sq ft lot

Tags

• FULL SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• FULL GUTTERS
• FULL DRAINAGE SYSTEM
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder: Highland Homes
• HOA & community: Part of Jubilee Residential Association; Annual association fee of $1,230

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (under construction); North-facing
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio and deck areas; Fully fenced backyard; Back yard fencing; Sprinkler / irrigation system

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Oven; Quartz counters; Walk-in pantry; Pots & pan drawers
• Bedrooms: 5 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank flooring; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double vanity in primary bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Double vanity; High ceilings; Kitchen open to family room; Pots & pan drawers; Pantry / walk-in pantry; Quartz countertops; Ceiling fans; Low emissivity windows; Reverse osmosis system
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Tankless water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $300,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $329,995.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-455 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (28.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (28.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Roberts Road El (math 31% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,234 of 4,322 statewide, top 52%, 976 students, 63% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1782 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $213,219 (28.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.91%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $329,995
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: -9.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-88,746
• Equity at exit: $49,203

10-year hold

• IRR: -47.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.50×
• Total profit: $-138,952
• Equity at exit: $28,532

Cash invested: $92,399 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1782
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,132 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,731
• Tax from tax record: −$168 /mo · $2,019/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$103
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-455

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,708

Max offer price $249,644

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-268	-5% $-361	+0% $-455	+5% $-548	+10% $-642
Rent	-10% $-623	-5% $-539	+0% $-455	+5% $-371	+10% $-286
Rate	-1.0pp $-289	-0.5pp $-371	base $-455	+0.5pp $-540	+1.0pp $-627

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,499
• Closing costs: $9,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $103 · $1,236/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $300,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $300,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $300,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $300,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $300,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active 32 DOM

   Show marketing remark (508 chars)

   Welcome to this stunning Melrose plan by Highland Homes, perfectly positioned in the highly sought-after Jubilee community in Hockley! Built with the quality and craftmanship you expect only in a Highland Home! This beautiful 1-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, a 2-car garage. Thoughtfully designed living and kitchen space ideal for everyday comfort and entertaining. Already includes FULL sprinkler system, FULL gutters, FULL drainage system, TANKLESS water heater, etc. .. Hurry before is gone!

7. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $300,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $289,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,000 Active 24 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    price $279,000 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    Welcome to this stunning Melrose plan by Highland Homes, perfectly positioned in the highly sought-after Jubilee community in Hockley! Built with the quality and craftmanship you expect only in a Highland Home! This beautiful 1-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, a 2-car garage. Thoughtfully designed living and kitchen space ideal for everyday comfort and entertaining. Already includes FULL sprinkler system, FULL gutters, FULL drainage system, TANKLESS water heater, etc. .. Hurry before is gone!

15. 2026-05-08
    price $279,000 510-char remark
16. 2026-05-08
    listed $289,000 Active 510-char remark
17. 2026-05-08
    historical
18. 2026-04-04
    price $289,000 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    Welcome to this stunning Melrose plan by Highland Homes, perfectly positioned in the highly sought-after Jubilee community in Hockley! Built with the quality and craftmanship you expect only in a Highland Home! This beautiful 1-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, a 2-car garage. Thoughtfully designed living and kitchen space ideal for everyday comfort and entertaining. Already includes FULL sprinkler system, FULL gutters, FULL drainage system, TANKLESS water heater, etc. .. Hurry before is gone!

19. 2026-04-03
    price $289,000
20. 2026-03-21
    price $299,000 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    Welcome to this stunning Melrose plan by Highland Homes, perfectly positioned in the highly sought-after Jubilee community in Hockley! Built with the quality and craftmanship you expect only in a Highland Home! This beautiful 1-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, a 2-car garage. Thoughtfully designed living and kitchen space ideal for everyday comfort and entertaining. Already includes FULL sprinkler system, FULL gutters, FULL drainage system, TANKLESS water heater, etc. .. Hurry before is gone!

21. 2026-03-20
    price $299,000
22. 2026-02-14
    price $307,613 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    Welcome to this stunning Melrose plan by Highland Homes, perfectly positioned in the highly sought-after Jubilee community in Hockley! Built with the quality and craftmanship you expect only in a Highland Home! This beautiful 1-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, a 2-car garage. Thoughtfully designed living and kitchen space ideal for everyday comfort and entertaining. Already includes FULL sprinkler system, FULL gutters, FULL drainage system, TANKLESS water heater, etc. .. Hurry before is gone!

23. 2026-02-12
    price $307,613
24. 2025-12-23
    listed $303,990 Active 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    Welcome to this stunning Melrose plan by Highland Homes, perfectly positioned in the highly sought-after Jubilee community in Hockley! Built with the quality and craftmanship you expect only in a Highland Home! This beautiful 1-story home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, a 2-car garage. Thoughtfully designed living and kitchen space ideal for everyday comfort and entertaining. Already includes FULL sprinkler system, FULL gutters, FULL drainage system, TANKLESS water heater, etc. .. Hurry before is gone!

25. 2025-12-22
    listed $303,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,019 · $168/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,490 · $458/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,471/yr (+$289/mo · 171.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,586
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,485
• − Property taxes: −$2,019
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,047
• − Management: −$2,047
• − HOA: −$1,236
• − Depreciation: −$9,600
• Taxable loss: −$11,497
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,759
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,699/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $300,000 Zillow
• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-23 Price Changed $289,000 Zillow
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $289,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $279,000 Zillow
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $279,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $289,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $289,000 Zillow
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $289,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $299,000 Zillow
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $307,613 Zillow
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $307,613 HARMLS
• 2025-12-23 Listed $303,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-22 Listed $303,990 HARMLS