13039 Alpine Dr #397 · Poway, CA 92064

$399,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 62 Days on market

Built 2009 $264/sqft · 26% above area Est $317k · 26% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this beautifully reimagined 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence located in the highly desirable Poway Royal Estates community. Perfectly positioned on a premium view lot with no rear neighbors, this home offers rare privacy paired with serene rolling green hillside views. Inside, the home features a fully renovated interior with a bright, open-concept layout and modern finishes throughout. The completely remodeled kitchen includes brand-new cabinetry, countertops, and all-new appliances, creating a clean, contemporary centerpiece ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Both bathrooms have been fully updated with new vanities and a spa-inspired walk-in tiled shower with frameless glass sliding doors, delivering a modern, elevated design. The home is finished throughout with durable luxury vinyl plank (LVP) flooring, providing a cohesive, low-maintenance, and modern aesthetic across all living spaces. The spacious primary suite offers a private retreat with an en-suite bath, while three additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, office use, or multi-purpose living.

Key facts

• No rear neighbors
• Premium view lot
• Remodeled kitchen

Tags

• PREMIUM VIEW LOT
• NO REAR NEIGHBORS
• FULLY RENOVATED INTERIOR
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• NEW CABINETRY
• NEW COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $400k).
• Recommended offer: $376k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 1.8% in Poway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#437 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Poway Unified (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #317 of 517 in CA (top 61%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 158 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($149k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $375,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.16%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $317,111
• List price: $399,900
• Delta: 26.11%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13114 Dana Vista St #345	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,416 (-6%)	6mo	$237,500	$168	76
12809 Estrella Vista St #233	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,422 (-6%)	7mo	$330,000	$232	72
13308 Alpine Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,566 (+4%)	4mo	$388,888	$248	71
13229 Casa Vista St #85	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-5%)	13mo	$359,000	$249	64
13327 Buena Vista St	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,422 (-6%)	9mo	$349,000	$245	60
13335 Buena Vista St	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,584 (+5%)	13mo	$380,000	$240	57
13309 Dana Vista St	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-11%)	7mo	$245,000	$182	56
13334 Buena Vista St #63	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,340 (-11%)	8mo	$350,000	$261	52
12833 Estrella Vista St #289	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,293 (-14%)	13mo	$359,900	$278	51
12830 El Rey Vista St #140	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-14%)	17mo	$325,000	$251	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-11,323
• Equity at exit: $59,626

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $25,816
• Equity at exit: $34,576

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92064

• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,332 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,399/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$910
• Net cashflow: $1,042

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,013

Max offer price $399,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12946 Morene St Poway, CA	3.0	2.0	1125	$3,750	$3.33	44d	1	0.33mi
12923 Slack St Poway, CA	4.0	2.0	1255	$4,250	$3.39	18d	1	0.37mi
13517 Hilleary Park Dr Poway, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1039	$4,320	$4.16	2d	1	0.88mi
13627 Atoka Pl Poway, CA	3.0	2.0	1800	$5,175	$2.88	12d	1	1.06mi
13743 McKenzie Ave Poway, CA	4.0	2.0	1470	$4,250	$2.89	44d	1	1.09mi
13385 Via Stephen Poway, CA	4.0	2.0	1644	$4,100	$2.49	18d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,900 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,900 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,900 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,900 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,900 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,900 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,900 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $399,900 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $429,900 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $429,900 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $429,900 Active 46 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $429,900 Active 45 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $429,900 Active 44 DOM
14. 2026-04-17
    listed $429,900 Active 1095-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1095 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully reimagined 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence located in the highly desirable Poway Royal Estates community. Perfectly positioned on a premium view lot with no rear neighbors, this home offers rare privacy paired with serene rolling green hillside views. Inside, the home features a fully renovated interior with a bright, open-concept layout and modern finishes throughout. The completely remodeled kitchen includes brand-new cabinetry, countertops, and all-new appliances, creating a clean, contemporary centerpiece ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Both bathrooms have been fully updated with new vanities and a spa-inspired walk-in tiled shower with frameless glass sliding doors, delivering a modern, elevated design. The home is finished throughout with durable luxury vinyl plank (LVP) flooring, providing a cohesive, low-maintenance, and modern aesthetic across all living spaces. The spacious primary suite offers a private retreat with an en-suite bath, while three additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, office use, or multi-purpose living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,399 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,039 · $253/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,640/yr (+$137/mo · 117.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,979
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$1,399
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,158
• − Management: −$4,158
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable income: $6,230
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,495
• After-tax cash flow: $11,004/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0631530
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -45.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -50.00%
• Median HH income: $102,903
• Composite: 27.12/100
• National rank: #7036
• State rank: #317 of 517 in CA

Livability — Poway

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #437
• US rank: #14979

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poway, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 48,683
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 48,683
• Household income: $148,673
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 973.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 13% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -793.75%
• Current HPI: 364.0529
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.50%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $429,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2013): $1,399 · -3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.