1715 Maya Corte · Rio Rico, AZ 85648

$240,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,058 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 317 Days on market

Built 2004 0.47 ac lot $117/sqft · 22% below area Est $309k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful house located in a peaceful cul-de-sac This spacious 3 bedroom ,2 bathroom ,tall ceiling with a cozy fireplace. New roof with a 2 year warranty MUST SEEE

Key facts

• 0.47 acre lot
• Built 2004
• Listed 316 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $66 ($786/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.1% in Rio Rico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#115 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458) (town): math 12% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #184 of 249 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 414 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 317 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $165k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,892 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 317 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.17%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $309,081
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: -22.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
72 Yoga Ct	0.27mi	3/2.0	2,019 (-2%)	14mo	$409,000	$203	72
1725 Faro Ct	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,852 (-10%)	5mo	$335,000	$181	65
177 Via Agua Sarca	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,047 (-0%)	4mo	$350,000	$171	64
1666 Vereda Neblina	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,047 (-0%)	9mo	$360,000	$176	57
1728 Círculo Alameda	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,783 (-13%)	11mo	$302,000	$169	49
180 Via Agua Sarca	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,779 (-14%)	1mo	$360,000	$202	48
99 Camino Embarcadero	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,793 (-13%)	20mo	$322,500	$180	47
139 Camino Embarcadero	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,811 (-12%)	9mo	$299,900	$166	40
128 Camino Embarcadero	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,826 (-11%)	15mo	$369,000	$202	37
1838 Calle Rompeolas	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,324 (+13%)	16mo	$340,000	$146	34
1710 Via Hungria	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,798 (-13%)	17mo	$374,000	$208	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $134,814
• Equity at exit: $216,211

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.86×
• Total profit: $393,587
• Equity at exit: $466,267

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85648

• Home prices YoY: 21.0%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,979 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,671/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,896

Max offer price $240,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $201	-5% $133	+0% $66	+5% $-2	+10% $-70
Rent	-10% $-91	-5% $-13	+0% $66	+5% $144	+10% $222
Rate	-1.0pp $186	-0.5pp $127	base $66	+0.5pp $3	+1.0pp $-60

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
65 Avenida Pastor Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,200	$1.56	2d	1	0.03mi
1731 Avenida Pastor Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,800	$1.15	2d	1	0.39mi
1691 Gamo Ct Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	15d	1	0.41mi
1719 Camino Pacifico Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1750	$1,700	$0.97	12d	1	0.54mi
1719 Camino Pacifico Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1750	$1,700	$0.97	44d	1	0.54mi
73 Vereda Patria Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1879	$1,750	$0.93	2d	1	0.68mi
117 Vereda Patria Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	1567	$2,500	$1.60	2d	1	0.87mi
1808 Cajeme Ct Rio Rico, AZ	4.0	2.0	1725	$1,850	$1.07	2d	1	1.16mi

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $240,000 Active 317 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 314 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   status $240,000 Active 313 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $240,000 Pending 313 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $240,000 Active 312 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 311 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 310 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $240,000 Active 309 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $240,000 Active 306 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 305 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 304 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 303 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 302 DOM
14. 2026-04-15
    price $240,000 178-char remark

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Beautiful house located in a peaceful cul-de-sac This spacious 3 bedroom ,2 bathroom ,tall ceiling with a cozy fireplace. New roof with a 2 year warranty MUST SEEE

15. 2026-03-06
    price $248,500 178-char remark

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Beautiful house located in a peaceful cul-de-sac This spacious 3 bedroom ,2 bathroom ,tall ceiling with a cozy fireplace. New roof with a 2 year warranty MUST SEEE

16. 2025-12-13
    price $255,000 178-char remark

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Beautiful house located in a peaceful cul-de-sac This spacious 3 bedroom ,2 bathroom ,tall ceiling with a cozy fireplace. New roof with a 2 year warranty MUST SEEE

17. 2025-11-04
    status Active 178-char remark

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Beautiful house located in a peaceful cul-de-sac This spacious 3 bedroom ,2 bathroom ,tall ceiling with a cozy fireplace. New roof with a 2 year warranty MUST SEEE

18. 2025-10-20
    status Pending 178-char remark

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Beautiful house located in a peaceful cul-de-sac This spacious 3 bedroom ,2 bathroom ,tall ceiling with a cozy fireplace. New roof with a 2 year warranty MUST SEEE

19. 2025-10-03
    price $245,000 178-char remark

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Beautiful house located in a peaceful cul-de-sac This spacious 3 bedroom ,2 bathroom ,tall ceiling with a cozy fireplace. New roof with a 2 year warranty MUST SEEE

20. 2025-07-18
    listed $255,000 Active 178-char remark

    Show marketing remark (178 chars)

    Beautiful house located in a peaceful cul-de-sac This spacious 3 bedroom ,2 bathroom ,tall ceiling with a cozy fireplace. New roof with a 2 year warranty MUST SEEE

21. 2025-07-17
    price $255,000
22. 2025-07-01
    historical
23. 2025-04-08
    price $259,900
24. 2025-01-31
    price $279,900
25. 2024-11-14
    listed $290,000 Active
26. 2024-09-21
    status Pending
27. 2024-09-20
    soldstatus $165,000 Closed
28. 2024-09-20
    soldstatus $165,000
29. 2024-08-28
    historical Active Contingent
30. 2024-08-24
    listed $170,000 Active
31. 2023-06-08
    historical
32. 2023-02-18
    status Active
33. 2023-01-22
    historical Active Contingent
34. 2022-12-17
    status Active
35. 2022-12-12
    historical Active Contingent
36. 2022-09-29
    price $190,000
37. 2022-09-02
    status Active
38. 2022-08-11
    historical Active Contingent
39. 2022-07-27
    price $195,000
40. 2022-07-21
    price $200,000
41. 2022-07-06
    listed $230,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,671 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,671 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,747
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$1,671
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,900
• − Management: −$1,900
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$3,349
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$804
• After-tax cash flow: $1,590/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458)
• NCES district ID: 0407520
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $48,019
• Composite: 16.84/100
• National rank: #9147
• State rank: #184 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Rio Rico

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #15321

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rio Rico, AZ
• County: Santa Cruz County · 22,118 people
• City population: 22,118
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,118
• Household income: $61,519
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 48% White 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 83%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 21% English-only · Spanish 79%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 72.18%
• Current HPI: 415.2167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+4.3% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $240,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $248,500 MLSSAZ
• 2025-12-13 Price Changed $255,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-04 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-20 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $245,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-07-18 Listed $255,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $255,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-07-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-04-08 Price Changed $259,900 MLSSAZ
• 2025-01-31 Price Changed $279,900 MLSSAZ
• 2024-11-14 Listed $290,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-09-21 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2024-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2024-09-20 Sold (MLS) $165,000 MLSSAZ
• 2024-08-28 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2024-08-24 Listed $170,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-06-08 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2023-02-18 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2023-01-22 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2022-12-17 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2022-12-12 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2022-09-29 Price Changed $190,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-09-02 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2022-08-11 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2022-07-27 Price Changed $195,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-07-21 Price Changed $200,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-07-06 Listed $230,000 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

+12.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,671 · +96.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.