538 S Deerfield Dr · Gluckstadt, MS 39046

$229,000

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,750 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 276 Days on market

Built 1987 7,840 sqft lot Est $301k · 24% under $38/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move In Ready! Located right on the golf course. 3 spacious bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, Bonus Room - perfect for a playroom, large office, or guest space. Recently remodeled, with a new roof and new AC Unit. This home blends modern upgrades with a desirable location, making it a rare find you don't want to miss.

Key facts

• New floors
• Bonus room upstairs
• Split plan

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW FLOORS
• NEW AC
• SPLIT PLAN
• BONUS ROOM UPSTAIRS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $236 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.9% in Gluckstadt — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Madison County School District (rural): math 54% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #3 of 130 in MS (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Madison Crossing Elementary (math 52% / reading 55%, grade C, #49 of 375 statewide, top 13%, 775 students, 100% FRL); Germantown Middle School (math 55% / reading 58%, grade B, #14 of 179 statewide, top 7%, 1,008 students, 100% FRL); Germantown High School (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #59 of 197 statewide, top 30%, 1,396 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 29% district-wide (70 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 358 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 553 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 276 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $201,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 276 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.65%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $301,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
538 S Deerfield Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,798 (+3%)	0mo	$229,000	$127	87
414 Spike Rdg	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,890 (+8%)	1mo	$249,500	$132	69
712 Honeysuckle Loop	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,706 (-2%)	3mo	$314,900	$185	62
144 Porter Ridge Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,711 (-2%)	1mo	$294,900	$172	60
718 Honeysuckle Loop	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,835 (+5%)	2mo	$349,900	$191	55
194 Harvey Xing	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,695 (-3%)	4mo	$288,000	$170	55
115 W Elbridge Way	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,694 (-3%)	4mo	$275,000	$162	53
107 Highbury Cv	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,690 (-3%)	6mo	$249,900	$148	51
105 Leah Cv	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,688 (-4%)	8mo	$305,000	$181	49
104 Leah Cv	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,640 (-6%)	4mo	$299,900	$183	48
136 Middlefield Dr #136	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,980 (+13%)	6mo	$280,000	$141	37
716 Honeysuckle Loop	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,502 (-14%)	3mo	$289,445	$193	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-22,072
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $207
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39046

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Active inventory: 358
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,280 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,979/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$479
• Net cashflow: $236

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,982

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
104 Moss Crk Canton, MS	3.0	2.0	1428	$2,156	$1.51	43d	1	0.45mi
102 Moss Crk Canton, MS	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,253	$1.50	23d	1	0.47mi
161 Harvey Crossing Canton, MS	3.0	2.0	1687	$2,350	$1.39	43d	1	0.71mi
125 Trailbridge Crossing Canton, MS	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,500	$1.43	13d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   price $229,000
3. 2026-03-23
   price $249,900
4. 2026-01-01
   price $255,000
5. 2025-12-05
   price $265,000
6. 2025-11-24
   price $266,000
7. 2025-11-11
   price $268,000
8. 2025-09-29
   price $269,000
9. 2025-08-15
   price $269,900
10. 2025-08-08
    price $285,000
11. 2025-07-19
    listed $289,000 Active
12. 2021-10-20
    historical
13. 2021-10-08
    historical
14. 2019-09-08
    historical
15. 2019-05-09
    listed $149,999
16. 2018-07-10
    listed $159,999
17. 2006-04-04
    soldstatus
18. 2005-11-04
    listed $169,900
19. 2004-09-29
    soldstatus
20. 2001-12-05
    soldstatus
21. 2001-02-12
    soldstatus
22. 2000-04-06
    soldstatus
23. 1996-05-16
    soldstatus
24. 1996-04-23
    soldstatus
25. 1988-05-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,979 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,979 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,363
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$1,979
• − Insurance: −$1,942
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,189
• − Management: −$2,189
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$882
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$212
• After-tax cash flow: $3,040/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802790
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,579
• Composite: 48.08/100
• National rank: #2188
• State rank: #3 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gluckstadt

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 29,160

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,509 people
• By 2030: 131,737 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 148,930 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 164,300 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 197,495 · +61.2%
• By 2100: 211,429 · +72.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 63% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: R (+17.3) · D 40.8% · R 58.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -15.6pp · 2024: -17.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.3 2020: R+11.8 2016: R+16.1 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+15.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.50%
• Current HPI: 154.0441
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+34.8% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $229,000 MLSU
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $249,900 MLSU
• 2026-01-01 Price Changed $255,000 MLSU
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $265,000 MLSU
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $266,000 MLSU
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $268,000 MLSU
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $269,000 MLSU
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $269,900 MLSU
• 2025-08-08 Price Changed $285,000 MLSU
• 2025-07-19 Listed $289,000 MLSU
• 2021-10-20 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2021-10-08 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2019-09-08 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2019-05-09 Listed $149,999 MLSU
• 2018-07-10 Listed $159,999 MLSU
• 2006-04-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-11-04 Listed $169,900 MLSU
• 2004-09-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-12-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-02-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2000-04-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-05-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-04-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1988-05-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,979 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.