10509 Junco Rd · Fort Worth, TX 76140

$253,499

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,411 sqft · Other · 18 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 18 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $253k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $19 ($228/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.9% in Fort Worth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#49 in TX, #1,954 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Everman ISD (suburban): math 21% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #691 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: John And Polly Townley El (math 15% / reading 21%, grade F, #3,785 of 4,322 statewide, top 88%, 365 students, 95% FRL); Charles Baxter J H (math 19% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,200 of 1,662 statewide, top 73%, 769 students, 94% FRL); Everman H S (math 15% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,250 of 1,632 statewide, top 77%, 1,740 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 77% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 390 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 18,938 units permitted in Tarrant County in 2024 (8,336 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tarrant County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,370 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.32%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.11% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-45,477
• Equity at exit: $37,798

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-59,787
• Equity at exit: $21,918

Cash invested: $70,980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76140

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 390
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,944 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,329
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $978/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$408
• Net cashflow: $19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,920

Max offer price $253,499

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $162	-5% $91	+0% $19	+5% $-53	+10% $-125
Rent	-10% $-135	-5% $-58	+0% $19	+5% $96	+10% $173
Rate	-1.0pp $147	-0.5pp $83	base $19	+0.5pp $-47	+1.0pp $-114

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,375
• Closing costs: $7,605
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1645 Verdin RD Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1033	$1,700	$1.65	15d	1	0.02mi
3137 Pecan Farm Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.5	1592	$2,200	$1.38	46d	1	0.25mi
9004 Apple Orchard Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1514	$2,099	$1.39	0d	7	0.43mi
9004 Apple Orchard Ln Fort Worth, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1514	$2,419	$1.60	17d	2	0.43mi
9000 Balch St Unit 512 Everman, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$966	$0.88	1d	1	0.70mi
9000 Balch St Unit 612 Everman, TX	3.0	2.0	1277	$1,093	$0.86	1d	1	0.70mi
9053 S Race St Unit 9086 Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1185	$1,570	$1.32	15d	1	0.89mi
9053 S Race St Unit 9110 Fort Worth, TX	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,186	$1.11	1d	1	0.89mi
9053 S Race St Unit 9086 Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1185	$1,464	$1.24	46d	1	0.89mi
9053 S Race St Unit 9080 Fort Worth, TX	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,272	$1.19	46d	1	0.89mi
9053 S Race St Unit 9086 Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1185	$1,413	$1.19	1d	1	0.89mi
9053 S Race St Unit 2121 Fort Worth, TX	2.0	2.0	1072	$1,227	$1.14	1d	1	0.89mi
9053 S Race St Unit 3121 Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1185	$1,464	$1.24	1d	1	0.89mi
1540 Woodwinds Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,280	$1.43	7d	1	1.17mi
1513 Harvester Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,280	$1.43	1d	1	1.21mi
108 Rosings Pl Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.5	1753	$2,100	$1.20	46d	1	1.22mi
1508 Harvester Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1724	$2,328	$1.35	9d	1	1.22mi
1500 Four Seasons Ln Fort Worth, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	876	$1,400	$1.60	24d	1	1.22mi
1505 Woodwinds Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,280	$1.43	22d	1	1.24mi
1500 Harvester Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,280	$1.43	6d	1	1.24mi
3148 Evangeline Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1703	$1,974	$1.16	23d	1	1.27mi
10213 S Race St Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1819	$1,961	$1.08	24d	1	1.27mi
1444 Harvester Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1840	$2,080	$1.13	0d	1	1.27mi
3137 Evangeline Rd Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1637	$1,995	$1.22	46d	1	1.30mi
9609 Sierra Grande Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1754	$2,175	$1.24	9d	1	1.32mi
435 Sussex Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,935	$1.48	46d	1	1.34mi
514 Thompson Pl Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.5	1687	$2,155	$1.28	46d	1	1.37mi
9632 Sierra Grande Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,895	$1.18	46d	1	1.37mi
512 Sussex Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,935	$1.48	46d	1	1.38mi
1456 Palamedes Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1316	$2,000	$1.52	6d	1	1.39mi
1329 Woodwinds Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$2,320	$1.29	7d	1	1.40mi
1421 Sunkiss Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,995	$1.24	4d	1	1.45mi
1401 Sunkiss Dr Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,095	$1.31	15d	1	1.48mi
1412 Royal Meadows Trl Fort Worth, TX	3.0	2.0	1576	$1,779	$1.13	5d	1	1.48mi
1928 Alanbrooke Dr Fort Worth, TX	4.0	2.0	1765	$2,100	$1.19	46d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $253,499 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $253,499 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $253,499 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $253,499 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $253,499 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $253,499 Active 11 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $978 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,639 · $387/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,661/yr (+$305/mo · 374.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,324
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,200
• − Property taxes: −$978
• − Insurance: −$1,267
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,866
• − Management: −$1,866
• − Depreciation: −$7,375
• Taxable loss: −$4,228
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,015
• After-tax cash flow: $1,243/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Everman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818810
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,803
• Composite: 22.77/100
• National rank: #8027
• State rank: #691 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Worth

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #49
• US rank: #1954

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tarrant County · 2,033,669 people
• City population: 911,619
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,321
• Household income: $75,955
• Rent vs Own: 31.6% rent · 68.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1264.0

Population outlook (Tarrant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,380,417 people
• By 2030: 2,578,900 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 2,974,995 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 3,350,489 · +40.8%
• By 2075: 4,216,909 · +77.2%
• By 2100: 4,741,527 · +99.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 39% Black 35% White 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 32% Vietnamese 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tarrant

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.1) · D 46.7% · R 51.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -5.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.1 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+8.7 2012: R+15.7 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.54%
• Current HPI: 285.9894
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.11%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B