2509 Berwyck Ave · Dayton, OH 45414

$150,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,048 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1940 5,458 sqft lot Est $165k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated ranch, 3 large bedrooms, remodeled kitchen with breakfast counter, vinyl replacement windows with blinds, some hardwood floors, 100 amp breaker electric panel, rear wood deck and storage shed. A nice investment for the homeowner or investor. Great location near everything. Get the keys at closing.

Key facts

• New kitchen
• New flooring
• Large backyard

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• UPDATED LIGHTING
• SEPARATE LAUNDRY AREA
• NEW KITCHEN
• LARGE BACKYARD
• DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Offered for sale

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water and sewer (assumed from residential zoning and typical utilities); Natural gas for heating; Electric service for cooling
• Home design: Single-story home
• Construction: Vinyl and wood siding; Built on a slab foundation
• Exterior features: Residential lot approximately 0.125 acres (about 41.5 x 130)

Interior

• Kitchen: Main-level kitchen (11 x 10)
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms (11 x 11 and 13 x 11)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating with natural gas
• Interior features: Total of 7 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry (5 x 3)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-278/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#716 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, amenities C-, crime F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 51 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 907 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (416 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $150k implies a 502% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,421 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.24%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $164,536
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3413 Rolfe Ave	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+5%)	3mo	$179,900	$164	86
2513 Ome Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,080 (+3%)	0mo	$140,000	$130	80
2650 Onaoto Ave	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,025 (-2%)	2mo	$161,000	$157	79
3811 Montevideo Dr	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,025 (-2%)	0mo	$161,000	$157	73
3325 Rolfe Ave	0.04mi	3/1.5	925 (-12%)	6mo	$120,000	$130	71
2417 Neff Rd	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,025 (-2%)	7mo	$135,000	$132	69
2714 Ontario Ave	0.33mi	3/1.0	960 (-8%)	5mo	$125,000	$130	67
2189 Mountview Cir	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,025 (-2%)	0mo	$165,000	$161	65
2073 Auburndale Ave	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,025 (-2%)	7mo	$164,900	$161	58
2000 Neva Dr	0.46mi	3/1.0	932 (-11%)	4mo	$133,900	$144	57
1820 E Siebenthaler Ave	0.59mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,104 (+5%)	6mo	$117,500	$106	53
2933 Lindale Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,132 (+8%)	2mo	$208,000	$184	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-20,016
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $6,588
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45414

• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,244 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,086/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$261
• Net cashflow: $-23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,274

Max offer price $145,906

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2611 Onaoto Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,195	$1.17	11d	1	0.37mi
2322 Koehler Ave Dayton, OH	4.0	1.0	1155	$1,350	$1.17	3d	1	0.85mi
317 Fernwood Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1320	$1,100	$0.83	11d	1	1.17mi
337 Ryburn Ave Unit 2 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	900	$800	$0.89	44d	1	1.23mi
57 Walbrook Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	861	$975	$1.13	3d	1	1.26mi
419 Sandhurst Dr Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	950	$975	$1.03	23d	1	1.27mi
220 Fernwood Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	884	$900	$1.02	3d	1	1.27mi
152 Laura Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	990	$895	$0.90	44d	1	1.33mi
147 Laura Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1096	$975	$0.89	23d	1	1.34mi
202 E Bruce Ave Apt 2 Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1250	$800	$0.64	23d	1	1.37mi
102 E Norman Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	800	$925	$1.16	23d	1	1.38mi
244 E Siebenthaler Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.5	1273	$1,175	$0.92	3d	1	1.42mi
65 E Maplewood Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	1064	$723	$0.68	44d	1	1.44mi
228 E Siebenthaler Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	934	$1,200	$1.28	44d	1	1.45mi
31 E Norman Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	23d	1	1.48mi
451 Hunter Ave Dayton, OH	2.0	1.0	974	$800	$0.82	23d	1	1.49mi
101 E Bruce Ave Dayton, OH	3.0	1.0	1455	$1,150	$0.79	3d	1	1.49mi
42 Pointview Ave Unit 42 Dayton, OH	3.0	2.0	1240	$1,200	$0.97	3d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 682-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $150,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,086 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,713 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$627/yr (+$52/mo · 57.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,931
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,086
• − Insurance: −$1,547
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,194
• − Management: −$1,194
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$2,858
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$686
• After-tax cash flow: $408/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #716
• US rank: #12895

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 459,541 people
• City population: 164,387
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• Population (ZIP): 21,167
• Household income: $54,485
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 801.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 523,241 people
• By 2030: 514,948 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 493,378 · -5.7%
• By 2050: 469,639 · -10.2%
• By 2075: 418,360 · -20.0%
• By 2100: 353,315 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 15% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Arabic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.8% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.2pp · 2024: 0.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+6.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -142.46%
• Current HPI: 183.1124
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.41%
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+401.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $150,000 Dayton MLS
• 2014-04-07 Sold (MLS) $24,900 Dayton MLS
• 2014-04-07 Sold (MLS) $24,900 Dayton MLS
• 2014-03-03 Listing Removed — Dayton MLS
• 2014-02-25 Listed $29,900 Dayton MLS

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,086 · -2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.