3 Fordham Hill Oval Unit 5B · New York, NY 10468

$230,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 975 sqft · Condo · 787 Days on market

Built 1950 ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This very specious 2 bedroom apartment has a great view of the river located in the beautiful gated community of Fordham Hill Oval in the Bronx, its close to all major transportation, shopping areas, recreational areas and more. Apt. sold as is and Seller is willing to negotiate and give back a credit at closing. Maintenance includes all utilities, basic cable, internet, taxes, insurance and it’s 45% tax deductible at tax time. On site is the management office, fitness center, lots of sitting areas, storage area, playground and 24 hour security personnel. VIEWING BY APPOINTMENT.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 1950
• Listed 787 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association management: First Service Reside; Building amenities include elevator(s) and a park; Association fees cover cable TV, electricity, gas, heat, hot water, sewer, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Garage parking; Off-street parking
• Security: Gated community (association amenity)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Trash collection (public)
• Home design: Stock cooperative
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Brick exterior; Near public transit, schools, and shops; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Galley kitchen layout; Refrigerator included
• Bedrooms: Located between 3rd and 5th floors and basement (unit description indicates placement in building)
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating with baseboard; Wall/window air conditioning unit(s)
• Interior features: Galley-style kitchen; Walk-in closet(s); Basement with walk-out access; No attic
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside unit; Oil water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-142 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.6% in New York — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#268 in NY, #4,188 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.7%/yr); 122 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,929 units permitted in Bronx County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,022/mo this rent would consume 104% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 9659% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $1k appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Bronx County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 787 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 86692% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 43% of rent; built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 787 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.64%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.5% appreciation · 6.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $6,388
• Equity at exit: $72,636

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $103,791
• Equity at exit: $92,130

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City New York: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+34

Rent Stabilization Code; HSTPA; 6+ months in housing court.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10468

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Rents YoY: 6.7%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,022 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$288 /mo · $3,450/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA est. from 3 same-building comps: −$1,730
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$845
• Net cashflow: $-142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,202

Max offer price $209,467

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
405 W 206th St Unit 1202E New York, NY	3.0	2.0	900	$6,250	$6.94	24d	1	0.52mi
2600 Netherland Ave Bronx, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1132	$3,938	$3.48	22d	3	1.02mi
2311 Crotona Ave Apt 1 Bronx, NY	3.0	1.0	950	$3,350	$3.53	20d	1	1.50mi
2311 Crotona Ave Apt 2 Bronx, NY	3.0	1.0	950	$3,350	$3.53	24d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: internetcablegymsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $230,000 Active 787 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 786 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 784 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 782 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $230,000 Active 778 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,000 Active 777 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $230,000 Active 772 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $230,000 Active 770 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $230,000 Active 769 DOM
10. 2025-10-27
    price $230,000
11. 2025-10-26
    status Active
12. 2025-10-26
    historical
13. 2025-04-27
    price $250,000
14. 2025-04-27
    status Active
15. 2025-04-25
    historical
16. 2025-04-17
    price $260,000
17. 2024-04-21
    price $265,000
18. 2024-04-20
    listed $265 Active
19. 2023-12-30
    historical
20. 2023-04-11
    listed $264,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,267
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$3,450
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,861
• − Management: −$3,861
• − HOA: −$20,760
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$4,390
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,054
• After-tax cash flow: $-649/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — New York

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #4188

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New York, NY
• County: Bronx County · 1,197,324 people
• City population: 7,731,280
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 75,557
• Household income: $46,233
• Rent vs Own: 91.5% rent · 8.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 9659.0

Population outlook (Bronx County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,353 people
• By 2030: 1,681,852 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,824,421 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 1,945,470 · +21.0%
• By 2075: 2,187,887 · +36.1%
• By 2100: 2,244,136 · +39.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Black 17% Two or more races 15% White 3% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 11% Dominican 45%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 46% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 22% English-only · Spanish 69% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bronx

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+45.4) · D 72.7% · R 27.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 77.8pp · 2024: 45.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+45.4 2020: D+67.6 2016: D+79.1 2012: D+82.9 2008: D+77.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.50%
• Current HPI: 249.8923
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.70%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-12.9% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-27 Price Changed $230,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-26 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-26 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-27 Price Changed $250,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-27 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-25 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-17 Price Changed $260,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-21 Price Changed $265,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-20 Listed $265 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-30 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-11 Listed $264,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid