3707 Oak Grove Ave · Rockford, IL 61108

$145,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,028 sqft · SingleFamily · 8 Days on market

Built 1959 0.27 ac lot Est $159k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready, one owner home! Hardwood floors just refinished, new paint, new mini-blinds throughout main floor. 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, 2 fireplaces, one in living room and one in lower level rec/family room. Fenced back yard with extra lot included, totaling . 51 acres. New roof 2012, new hot water heater 2017, C/A and furnace approximately 7 years old. Quick possession possible.

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Finished basement
• Ample cabinet space

Tags

• BRICK RANCH
• SPACIOUS LOT
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• DURABLE FORMICA COUNTERTOPS
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car total parking, 1 garage space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Raised ranch
• Construction: Built approximately 61–70 years ago; Home built before 1978
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions approximately 57 x 204; Lot smaller than 0.25 acre; Vinyl siding

Interior

• Kitchen: Galley-style kitchen 13 x 10; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom (main level) 15 x 10; Bedroom 2 (main level) 12 x 9; Bedroom 3 (main level) 11 x 9
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 7 total rooms; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $19 ($224/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (3.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (3.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Rockford SD 205 (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #533 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 114 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $145k implies a 93% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $139,439 (3.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.55%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $159,340
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
324 Fairview Blvd	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,049 (+2%)	0mo	$186,000	$177	67
3005 Oak Grove Ln	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,032 (+0%)	2mo	$165,000	$160	66
417 27th St	0.49mi	3/2.0	960 (-7%)	3mo	$167,000	$174	64
106 Oriole Cir	0.26mi	3/1.0	1,140 (+11%)	6mo	$169,900	$149	60
320 S Vale Ave	0.56mi	3/1.0	988 (-4%)	7mo	$153,000	$155	57
413 27th St	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,114 (+8%)	5mo	$97,000	$87	55
4515 Raven St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,113 (+8%)	4mo	$169,000	$152	54
803 Emerson Dr	0.42mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,137 (+11%)	1mo	$181,000	$159	53
407 28th St	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,169 (+14%)	7mo	$145,000	$124	48
3619 Crosby St	0.38mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,158 (+13%)	7mo	$156,500	$135	46
1112 Blenheim Dr	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,106 (+8%)	6mo	$155,000	$140	45
2812 Oak Grove Ln	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	942 (-8%)	5mo	$155,000	$165	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-14,869
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $22,407
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61108

• Home prices YoY: -29.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,394 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$262 /mo · $3,145/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,371

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
515 Fairview Ave Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,400	$1.75	21d	1	0.30mi
4173 Eastridge Dr Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	44d	1	0.54mi
4300 Eastridge Dr Unit 1 Rockford, IL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,575	$1.05	13d	1	0.61mi
4752 E Lawn Dr Rockford, IL	1.0–2.0	1.0	887	$1,095	$1.23	13d	1	0.85mi
4815 Creek View Rd Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,100	$1.38	44d	1	0.90mi
4860 Creek View Rd Unit 3 Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,000	$1.25	44d	1	0.95mi
3902 15th Ave Unit 3902-7 Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,375	$1.53	21d	1	1.01mi
2021 2nd Ave Rockford, IL	2.0	1.0	1250	$1,000	$0.80	13d	1	1.14mi
1202 18th St Unit 3 Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,700	$1.13	13d	1	1.30mi
4455 Charles St Rockford, IL	1.0–2.0	1.0	787	$1,299	$1.65	13d	1	1.32mi
333 S Gardiner Ave Unit AVE2 Rockford, IL	4.0	1.0	1306	$1,600	$1.23	44d	1	1.38mi
1004 15th St Rockford, IL	4.0	1.5	1267	$1,450	$1.14	21d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $145,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $145,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $145,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,145 · $262/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,218 · $268/mo
• Expected delta: +$73/yr (+$6/mo · 2.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,733
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$3,145
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,339
• − Management: −$1,339
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable loss: −$2,155
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$517
• After-tax cash flow: $741/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockford SD 205
• NCES district ID: 1734510
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,533
• Composite: 12.21/100
• National rank: #9649
• State rank: #533 of 620 in IL

Livability — Rockford

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #17035

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockford, IL
• County: Winnebago County · 147,297 people
• City population: 147,297
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,355
• Household income: $64,415
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1199.0

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Portuguese 3% Arab 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Philippines, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 16% Arabic 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.38%
• Current HPI: 218.6339
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.11%
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+81.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $145,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2017-10-27 Sold (MLS) $75,000 NWIAR
• 2017-05-12 Listed $79,900 NWIAR

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,145 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.