3820 W 16th Ave · Pine Bluff, AR 71603

$35,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,047 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1939 Est $27k · 29% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Single family home. Fully livable, but does need some repairs. Large yard space with a front porch and back porch/ laundry room with connections. Large closets as well.

Key facts

• Large yard space
• Laundry room
• Front porch

Tags

• LARGE YARD SPACE
• FRONT PORCH
• BACK PORCH
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• LARGE CLOSETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $468 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($898 rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.3% vs local median 9.0% in Pine Bluff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#483 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Watson Chapel School District (urban): math 10% / reading 12% proficiency, ranked #228 of 238 in AR (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 212 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 62 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1939 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $34,475 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1939 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.57% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 57.29%
• DSCR: 3.55
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $27,222
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1718 S Marsh	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+3%)	10mo	$30,000	$28	75
3307 Rose St	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-4%)	2mo	$18,000	$18	68
3506 W 12th Ave	0.28mi	3/2.0	984 (-6%)	7mo	$25,000	$25	68
3502 Lilac	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,073 (+2%)	8mo	$80,000	$75	66
4114 W 10th Ave	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,090 (+4%)	11mo	$45,000	$41	62
3408 Iris St	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,106 (+6%)	21mo	$32,000	$29	55
3308 Jonquil	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,075 (+3%)	22mo	$13,636	$13	52
4108 W 6th Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,168 (+12%)	14mo	$21,500	$18	36
3200 Jonquil	0.60mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,125 (+7%)	22mo	$13,636	$12	36
709 S Birch St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,150 (+10%)	16mo	$31,250	$27	32
3102 Jonquil	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,144 (+9%)	22mo	$13,636	$12	32
3307 Daffodil St	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,175 (+12%)	22mo	$30,000	$26	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 55.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.46×
• Total profit: $24,141
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 60.8%
• Equity multiple: 7.07×
• Total profit: $59,447
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71603

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $898 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $468

Break-even live

Break-even rent $306

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $492	-5% $480	+0% $468	+5% $456	+10% $444
Rent	-10% $397	-5% $432	+0% $468	+5% $503	+10% $539
Rate	-1.0pp $485	-0.5pp $477	base $468	+0.5pp $459	+1.0pp $450

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3109 Daffodil St Pine Bluff, AR	3.0	1.0	980	$825	$0.84	44d	1	0.69mi
2319 W 27th Ave Unit B Pine Bluff, AR	2.0	1.0	907	$795	$0.88	44d	1	1.17mi
1107 S Cypress St Unit 1 Pine Bluff, AR	2.0	1.0	875	$700	$0.80	44d	1	1.21mi
4324 Union Ave Pine Bluff, AR	2.0	1.0	702	$650	$0.93	44d	1	1.39mi
2001 W 28th Ave Pine Bluff, AR	2.0	1.0	729	$750	$1.03	44d	1	1.41mi
1907 W 28th Ave Pine Bluff, AR	3.0	1.5	947	$1,150	$1.21	44d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $35,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $35,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $35,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,000 Active 4 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $35,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    remarks 168-char remark
12. 2026-06-05
    listed $35,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$862
• − Management: −$862
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $5,377
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,291
• After-tax cash flow: $4,324/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watson Chapel School District
• NCES district ID: 0513930
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,521
• Composite: 9.55/100
• National rank: #9845
• State rank: #228 of 238 in AR

Livability — Pine Bluff

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #483
• US rank: #25645

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Bluff, AR
• County: Jefferson County · 29,578 people
• City population: 29,578
• Metro: Pine Bluff, AR
• Population (ZIP): 29,578
• Household income: $53,130
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 657.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,110 people
• By 2030: 58,519 · -7.3%
• By 2040: 49,740 · -21.2%
• By 2050: 42,331 · -32.9%
• By 2075: 29,591 · -53.1%
• By 2100: 21,047 · -66.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 33% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.2% · R 39.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: 26.3pp · 2024: 20.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1 2020: D+21.7 2016: D+25.3 2012: D+29.0 2008: D+26.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.43%
• Current HPI: 206.5994
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pine Bluff, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $35,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2 · +59.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.