502 Prairie View Dr · Salem, IL 62881

$134,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,208 sqft · SingleFamily

Built 1977 8,219 sqft lot Est $145k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 8,219 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1977

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $59 ($711/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 5.6% in Salem — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#467 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Salem Chsd 600 (town): math 25% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #571 of 919 in IL (top 62%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Hawthorn Elem School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #749 of 2,056 statewide, top 40%, 399 students, 0% FRL); Franklin Park Middle School (math 25% / reading 44%, grade F, #201 of 665 statewide, top 31%, 529 students, 0% FRL); Salem Community High School (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #397 of 693 statewide, top 61%, 732 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $116,799 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.88%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $144,960
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
437 Prairie View Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,384 (+15%)	7mo	$174,000	$126	66
106 Salem Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,175 (-3%)	13mo	$144,000	$123	66
102 Lamar Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,292 (+7%)	19mo	$168,000	$130	64
123 Lamar Dr	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,092 (-10%)	13mo	$130,500	$120	61
222 Westport Dr	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,092 (-10%)	7mo	$120,000	$110	61
118 Westport	0.20mi	3/1.0	1,048 (-13%)	9mo	$127,500	$122	59
1409 Rig	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,326 (+10%)	9mo	$135,000	$102	59
441 N Ohio Ave	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,184 (-2%)	6mo	$126,000	$106	56
225 Chatham Dr	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,092 (-10%)	20mo	$132,000	$121	49
326 N Indiana St	0.59mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,297 (+7%)	9mo	$145,000	$112	45
810 Tulsa Ave	0.36mi	3/—	1,350 (+12%)	22mo	$130,000	$96	45
740 Warmouth St	0.71mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,096 (-9%)	17mo	$132,000	$120	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-18,112
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-11,015
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62881

• Home prices YoY: -28.0%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,168 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $136	-5% $97	+0% $59	+5% $21	+10% $-17
Rent	-10% $-33	-5% $13	+0% $59	+5% $105	+10% $151
Rate	-1.0pp $127	-0.5pp $94	base $59	+0.5pp $24	+1.0pp $-11

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $134,900
2. 2026-05-12
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,198 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,130 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: +$932/yr (+$78/mo · 77.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,016
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,121
• − Management: −$1,121
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable loss: −$1,580
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$379
• After-tax cash flow: $1,090/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem Chsd 600
• NCES district ID: 1735190
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,305
• Composite: 26.04/100
• National rank: #12738
• State rank: #571 of 919 in IL

Livability — Salem

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #467
• US rank: #9634

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Salem, IL
• City population: 11,218
• Population (ZIP): 11,218

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,071 people
• By 2030: 34,598 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 31,754 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 28,912 · -19.8%
• By 2075: 22,527 · -37.5%
• By 2100: 16,455 · -54.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Black 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.5) · D 24.6% · R 74.1% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.5pp toward R · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: -49.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.5 2020: R+46.6 2016: R+44.9 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.16%
• Current HPI: 162.55
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Listed $134,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-3.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,198 · -6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.