02045 County Road 681 · Geneva, MI 49056

$124,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,717 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1940 0.41 ac lot $73/sqft · 51% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice location in the country 2 Baths 4-bedroom home Hardwood floors in the living room. Mome has much to offer. Priced to sell

Key facts

• 0.41 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1940

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $232 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (0.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• South Haven Public Schools (town): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #383 of 540 in MI (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 50 active listings in the ZIP; 165 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $121,153 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.96%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,113
• List price: $124,900
• Delta: -51.42%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
438 County Road 681	0.40mi	4/1.5	1,597 (-7%)	24mo	$222,000	$139	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.37×
• Total profit: $82,744
• Equity at exit: $112,520

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.63×
• Total profit: $231,957
• Equity at exit: $242,653

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49056

• Home prices YoY: 7.7%
• Active inventory: 50
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,247 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $556/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $954

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $124,900 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $124,900 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $124,900 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $124,900 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $124,900 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $124,900 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-04-21
    listed $124,900 Active 126-char remark

    Show marketing remark (126 chars)

    Nice location in the country 2 Baths 4-bedroom home Hardwood floors in the living room. Mome has much to offer. Priced to sell

17. 2026-04-21
    listed $124,900 Active 126-char remark

    Show marketing remark (126 chars)

    Nice location in the country 2 Baths 4-bedroom home Hardwood floors in the living room. Mome has much to offer. Priced to sell

18. 2026-04-21
    listed $124,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (126 chars)

    Nice location in the country 2 Baths 4-bedroom home Hardwood floors in the living room. Mome has much to offer. Priced to sell

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $556 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,240 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$684/yr (+$57/mo · 123.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,966
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$556
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,197
• − Management: −$1,197
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $761
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$183
• After-tax cash flow: $2,600/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Haven Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2632300
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,080
• Composite: 24.33/100
• National rank: #7703
• State rank: #383 of 540 in MI

Livability — Geneva

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,051

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,479 people
• By 2030: 68,693 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 62,093 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 55,232 · -22.7%
• By 2075: 40,786 · -42.9%
• By 2100: 27,785 · -61.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 8% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: R (+15.1) · D 41.7% · R 56.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.9pp toward R · 2008: 8.8pp · 2024: -15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.1 2020: R+12.3 2016: R+13.9 2012: D+0.5 2008: D+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.76%
• Current HPI: 360.8513
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $124,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $124,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-21 Listed $124,900 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

-4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $556 · -56.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.