3 Frederick Dr · Saratoga Springs, NY 12866

$459,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,509 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1973 9,147 sqft lot $305/sqft · 17% below area Est $557k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.2/30.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming and spacious 3 bedroom colonial is located in a sought-after, quiet neighborhood on a desirable corner lot just one mile from vibrant downtown Saratoga Springs. Enjoy the perfect blend of a neighborhood setting and being just 1 mile away from renowned dining, shopping, entertainment and State Park. The corner lot offers added space, natural light, and curb appeal. Whether you're relaxing at home or heading into town, this location delivers the best of both worlds--serenity and accessibility. 3 Frederick Dr is your perfect opportunity to own in one of Saratoga Springs' desirable areas--don't miss it. Come add your own personal touches and make this very well cared for home you

Key facts

• Accessibility
• Natural light
• Curb appeal

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• CURB APPEAL
• ACCESSIBILITY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Two-car garage; Four total parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Single-family residence; Facing direction not specified
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Asphalt roof; Full unfinished basement
• Exterior features: Deck; Front porch; Paved driveway; Outdoor lighting; Wood fencing; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the second floor
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the second floor; One half bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High speed internet; Ceiling paddle fans; Sliding glass doors; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (included); Laundry located in the basement; Basement has a sump pump and is unfinished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $460k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-625 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $349k (24.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $294k (36.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $294k (36.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.0% in Saratoga Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#83 in NY, #1,284 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F.
• Saratoga Springs City SD (suburban): math 67% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #138 of 590 in NY (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Lake Avenue Elementary School (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A+, #138 of 2,108 statewide, top 8%, 393 students, 21% FRL); Maple Avenue Middle School (math 46% / reading 69%, grade B, #187 of 729 statewide, top 26%, 1,392 students, 27% FRL); Saratoga Springs High School (math 98% / reading 92%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 1,947 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.2%/yr); 474 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($102k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($453k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $294,271 (36.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.83%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $557,105
• List price: $459,900
• Delta: -17.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
261 W Circular St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,653 (+10%)	4mo	$620,000	$375	69
177 Elm St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,541 (+2%)	0mo	$475,000	$308	65
13 Frederick Dr	0.11mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,662 (+10%)	7mo	$518,000	$312	63
8 Michael Dr	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,378 (-9%)	12mo	$470,000	$341	62
12 Hyde St	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (-7%)	2mo	$368,000	$262	60
17 Birch St	0.45mi	3/1.0	1,408 (-7%)	8mo	$537,500	$382	59
257 W Circular St	0.22mi	3/1.0	1,640 (+9%)	21mo	$380,000	$232	56
36 Ash St	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,554 (+3%)	2mo	$711,000	$458	55
23 Myrtle St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,514 (+0%)	15mo	$530,000	$350	54
159 W Circular St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,704 (+13%)	11mo	$685,000	$402	42
30 Andrews St	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,577 (+4%)	23mo	$582,000	$369	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-98,901
• Equity at exit: $68,573

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-67,021
• Equity at exit: $39,764

Cash invested: $128,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12866

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 474
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,943 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,412
• Tax from tax record: −$347 /mo · $4,161/yr
• Insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$618
• Net cashflow: $-625

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,734

Max offer price $349,416

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-365	-5% $-495	+0% $-625	+5% $-756	+10% $-886
Rent	-10% $-858	-5% $-742	+0% $-625	+5% $-509	+10% $-393
Rate	-1.0pp $-394	-0.5pp $-508	base $-625	+0.5pp $-745	+1.0pp $-866

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $114,975
• Closing costs: $13,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
116 West Ave Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	2.0	1135	$20,000	$17.62	25d	1	0.17mi
11 Outlook Ave Saratoga Springs, NY	3.0	2.5	1706	$28,000	$16.41	25d	1	0.38mi
194 Grand Ave Saratoga Springs, NY	4.0	2.5	2200	$28,000	$12.73	45d	1	0.57mi
68 Marvin St Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	25d	1	0.70mi
292 Washington St Saratoga Springs, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$2,500	$2.27	45d	1	0.82mi
99 1/2 Walworth St Saratoga Springs, NY	3.0	2.0	1152	$3,200	$2.78	45d	1	0.88mi
17 Van Dorn St Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.5	1342	$18,000	$13.41	45d	1	0.95mi
55 Railroad Pl Saratoga Springs, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1097	$3,570	$3.25	21d	2	0.99mi
110 Van Dam St Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.0	1120	$2,600	$2.32	45d	1	1.02mi
106 Van Dam St Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	2.5	1612	$18,000	$11.17	21d	1	1.03mi
26 Quiet Harbor Dr Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1179	$2,500	$2.12	15d	1	1.06mi
1 Spring St Saratoga Springs, NY	3.0	2.0	1340	$30,000	$22.39	45d	1	1.07mi
425 Broadway Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,800	$2.55	45d	1	1.11mi
59 Van Dam St Saratoga Springs, NY	3.0	1.0	1148	$2,500	$2.18	45d	1	1.18mi
37 Henry St Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	2.0	1890	$22,000	$11.64	45d	1	1.19mi
8 Furlong St Saratoga Springs, NY	3.0	2.5	2242	$1,000	$0.45	45d	1	1.19mi
30 Lake Ave Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	1.0–2.0	976	$3,190	$3.27	16d	7	1.26mi
5 Alger St Saratoga Springs, NY	3.0	1.5	1540	$2,750	$1.79	45d	1	1.28mi
74 Caroline St Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,795	$2.33	25d	1	1.29mi
55 State St Saratoga Springs, NY	4.0	3.0	2216	$20,000	$9.03	16d	1	1.30mi
38 High Rock Ave Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	2.5	1589	$25,000	$15.73	45d	1	1.34mi
77 White St Saratoga Springs, NY	4.0	2.5	2088	$4,950	$2.37	25d	1	1.36mi
156 Circular St Unit 3 Saratoga Springs, NY	2.0	2.0	1600	$3,250	$2.03	25d	1	1.44mi
10 Marion Pl Saratoga Springs, NY	4.0	2.0	1800	$4,500	$2.50	25d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-13
   historical Contingent 759-char remark
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $459,900 Active 759-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,161 · $347/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,967 · $497/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,806/yr (+$150/mo · 43.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,313
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,762
• − Property taxes: −$4,161
• − Insurance: −$2,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,825
• − Management: −$2,825
• − Depreciation: −$13,379
• Taxable loss: −$15,939
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,825
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,680/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saratoga Springs City SD
• NCES district ID: 3625770
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $69,864
• Composite: 60.83/100
• National rank: #818
• State rank: #138 of 590 in NY

Livability — Saratoga Springs

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #83
• US rank: #1284

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A- Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saratoga Springs, NY
• County: Saratoga County · 166,192 people
• City population: 40,057
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 40,057
• Household income: $101,901
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1424.0

Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -178.78%
• Current HPI: 382.7429
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.15%
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-05-13 Contingent — Global MLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $459,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,161 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.