5206 Santa Cruz Bay · Fairchilds, TX 77469

$257,390

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,655 sqft · SingleFamily · 57 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $156/sqft · at area comps Est $260k · at est. $117/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.0/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Linfield Floor Plan - This new four-bedroom home showcases a modern layout contained to a convenient single level. An open-concept floorplan with access to a covered patio promotes effortless entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms can be found at the back of the home, and the luxurious owner’s suite is tucked away to the side for enhanced comfort and privacy, complete with an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 57 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $257k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-784/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.2% in Fairchilds — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,450 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Needville ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #95 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Needville El (math 58% / reading 53%, grade C, #587 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 1,129 students, 49% FRL); Needville Middle (math 56% / reading 56%, grade B-, #234 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 819 students, 45% FRL); Needville H S (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,067 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1345 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $231,701 (10.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.09%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $260,153
• List price: $257,390
• Delta: -1.06%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7607 Barcelona Spgs	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-3%)	1mo	$239,990	$150	90
7507 Barcelona Spgs	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,600 (-3%)	0mo	$234,990	$147	89
6806 Papillon Ln	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,655 (0%)	1mo	$254,990	$154	72
5002 Wild Bergamot Ct	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,720 (+4%)	1mo	$232,540	$135	65
7511 Barcelona Spgs	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,411 (-15%)	1mo	$206,991	$147	65
6802 Papillon Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (-1%)	0mo	$254,990	$156	65
5010 Wild Bergamot Ct	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,720 (+4%)	1mo	$233,640	$136	64
5015 Wild Bergamot Ct	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+6%)	0mo	$223,990	$127	62
5007 Wild Bergamot Ct	0.58mi	4/2.0	1,760 (+6%)	1mo	$236,240	$134	62
6810 Papillon Ln	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-5%)	1mo	$239,990	$153	59
5011 Wild Bergamot Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (-8%)	1mo	$216,090	$142	54
5030 Palamedes Swallowtail Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,451 (-12%)	1mo	$236,790	$163	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-52,552
• Equity at exit: $38,378

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-76,927
• Equity at exit: $22,254

Cash invested: $72,069 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77469

• Home prices YoY: -25.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1345
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,317 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,350
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$322 /mo · $3,861/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$117
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $-65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,400

Max offer price $247,937

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $113	-5% $24	+0% $-65	+5% $-154	+10% $-243
Rent	-10% $-248	-5% $-157	+0% $-65	+5% $26	+10% $118
Rate	-1.0pp $64	-0.5pp $0	base $-65	+0.5pp $-132	+1.0pp $-200

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,348
• Closing costs: $7,722
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4707 Pine Meadow Dr Richmond, TX	3.0	2.0	1594	$2,200	$1.38	4d	1	0.59mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $117 · $1,404/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $257,390 Pending 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $257,390 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $257,390 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $257,390 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $257,390 Active 54 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $257,390 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-05-12
   price $257,390 608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (608 chars)

   The Linfield Floor Plan - This new four-bedroom home showcases a modern layout contained to a convenient single level. An open-concept floorplan with access to a covered patio promotes effortless entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms can be found at the back of the home, and the luxurious owner’s suite is tucked away to the side for enhanced comfort and privacy, complete with an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

8. 2026-05-08
   price $258,990 608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (608 chars)

   The Linfield Floor Plan - This new four-bedroom home showcases a modern layout contained to a convenient single level. An open-concept floorplan with access to a covered patio promotes effortless entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms can be found at the back of the home, and the luxurious owner’s suite is tucked away to the side for enhanced comfort and privacy, complete with an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

9. 2026-05-04
   price $239,641 608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (608 chars)

   The Linfield Floor Plan - This new four-bedroom home showcases a modern layout contained to a convenient single level. An open-concept floorplan with access to a covered patio promotes effortless entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms can be found at the back of the home, and the luxurious owner’s suite is tucked away to the side for enhanced comfort and privacy, complete with an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

10. 2026-04-30
    price $243,991 608-char remark

    Show marketing remark (608 chars)

    The Linfield Floor Plan - This new four-bedroom home showcases a modern layout contained to a convenient single level. An open-concept floorplan with access to a covered patio promotes effortless entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms can be found at the back of the home, and the luxurious owner’s suite is tucked away to the side for enhanced comfort and privacy, complete with an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

11. 2026-04-20
    price $251,990 608-char remark

    Show marketing remark (608 chars)

    The Linfield Floor Plan - This new four-bedroom home showcases a modern layout contained to a convenient single level. An open-concept floorplan with access to a covered patio promotes effortless entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms can be found at the back of the home, and the luxurious owner’s suite is tucked away to the side for enhanced comfort and privacy, complete with an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

12. 2026-04-16
    price $265,440 608-char remark

    Show marketing remark (608 chars)

    The Linfield Floor Plan - This new four-bedroom home showcases a modern layout contained to a convenient single level. An open-concept floorplan with access to a covered patio promotes effortless entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms can be found at the back of the home, and the luxurious owner’s suite is tucked away to the side for enhanced comfort and privacy, complete with an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

13. 2026-04-13
    price $269,740 608-char remark

    Show marketing remark (608 chars)

    The Linfield Floor Plan - This new four-bedroom home showcases a modern layout contained to a convenient single level. An open-concept floorplan with access to a covered patio promotes effortless entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms can be found at the back of the home, and the luxurious owner’s suite is tucked away to the side for enhanced comfort and privacy, complete with an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

14. 2026-04-09
    price $274,040 608-char remark

    Show marketing remark (608 chars)

    The Linfield Floor Plan - This new four-bedroom home showcases a modern layout contained to a convenient single level. An open-concept floorplan with access to a covered patio promotes effortless entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms can be found at the back of the home, and the luxurious owner’s suite is tucked away to the side for enhanced comfort and privacy, complete with an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

15. 2026-04-08
    listed $278,440 Active 608-char remark

    Show marketing remark (608 chars)

    The Linfield Floor Plan - This new four-bedroom home showcases a modern layout contained to a convenient single level. An open-concept floorplan with access to a covered patio promotes effortless entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms can be found at the back of the home, and the luxurious owner’s suite is tucked away to the side for enhanced comfort and privacy, complete with an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

16. 2026-04-08
    historical

    Show marketing remark (608 chars)

    The Linfield Floor Plan - This new four-bedroom home showcases a modern layout contained to a convenient single level. An open-concept floorplan with access to a covered patio promotes effortless entertaining and multitasking. Three secondary bedrooms can be found at the back of the home, and the luxurious owner’s suite is tucked away to the side for enhanced comfort and privacy, complete with an en-suite bathroom and generous walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

17. 2026-04-03
    price $278,440
18. 2026-03-31
    listed $282,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,418
• − Property taxes: −$3,861
• − Insurance: −$1,287
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,224
• − Management: −$2,224
• − HOA: −$1,404
• − Depreciation: −$7,488
• Taxable loss: −$5,102
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,224
• After-tax cash flow: $441/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home presents as move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed. The exterior and interior are in good condition, and updates such as painting and landscaping can significantly enhance its value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value.
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value.
• Both Add smart home features — Enhances home's marketability and rental appeal.
• Both Update flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality.
• Both Add smart thermostat — Enhances energy efficiency and comfort for potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value. ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and rental value. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Enhances home's marketability and rental appeal. ↑
• Both Update flooring in bathrooms — Improves aesthetics and functionality. ↑
• Both Add smart thermostat — Enhances energy efficiency and comfort for potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Needville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832310
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,900
• Composite: 48.17/100
• National rank: #2176
• State rank: #95 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fairchilds

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1450
• US rank: #24783

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 69,826
• Household income: $102,125
• Rent vs Own: 20.6% rent · 79.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1292.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.76)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 29% White 27% Black 25% Two or more races 15% Asian 15%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.66%
• Current HPI: 234.9892
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.81%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $257,390 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $258,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $239,641 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $243,991 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $251,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $265,440 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $269,740 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $274,040 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $278,440 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $278,440 HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $282,990 HARMLS