646 SE Old County Camp Rd · Madison, FL 32340

$99,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1976 0.63 ac lot Est $176k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

A very attractive Brick home with an additional lot (. 34 acre)(101x142x105x142) ( parcel # 00-00-00-4845-003-0V1) adjoining the home also included into the Listing Price. The home could be yours to live in yourself or possibility as a rental property. It is presently occupied with a tenant. Many possibilities also exist for the use of the extra lot parcel .

Key facts

• Fully brick
• Full metal roof
• Large lot

Tags

• FULLY BRICK
• FULL METAL ROOF
• LARGE LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Additional parking; Other parking options
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity available and connected; Water available and connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Entry level: 1; Faces west; Corner lot
• Construction: Brick construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Front porch and additional porch; Other exterior features; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Double oven; Electric oven; Freezer; Ice maker
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms — all on the first level
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Wood-burning fireplace; Partially furnished
• Laundry & utility: In-unit laundry; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $99,999 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$175,584) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $182 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 2.6% in Madison — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#437 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, housing D+, amenities F.
• Madison (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #64 of 73 in FL (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 31 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Madison County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $100k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,999 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.79%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $175,584
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
278 SE Sullivan Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,654 (+11%)	13mo	$194,900	$118	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $66,106
• Equity at exit: $90,087

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.63×
• Total profit: $185,704
• Equity at exit: $194,276

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32340

• Home prices YoY: 32.0%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,208 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,478/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $182

Break-even live

Break-even rent $978

Max offer price $99,999

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $99,999 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,999 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,999 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $99,999 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   pricestatusdays on market $110,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    status $124,999 Pending 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,999 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,999 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,999 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $124,999 Active 31 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    price $124,999
16. 2026-04-28
    listed $149,999 Active
17. 2020-07-31
    historical
18. 2020-07-29
    listed $11,000
19. 2016-09-23
    soldstatus $58,000 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    A very attractive Brick home with an additional lot (. 34 acre)(101x142x105x142) ( parcel # 00-00-00-4845-003-0V1) adjoining the home also included into the Listing Price. The home could be yours to live in yourself or possibility as a rental property. It is presently occupied with a tenant. Many possibilities also exist for the use of the extra lot parcel .

20. 2016-06-29
    listed $60,000 362-char remark

    Show marketing remark (362 chars)

    A very attractive Brick home with an additional lot (. 34 acre)(101x142x105x142) ( parcel # 00-00-00-4845-003-0V1) adjoining the home also included into the Listing Price. The home could be yours to live in yourself or possibility as a rental property. It is presently occupied with a tenant. Many possibilities also exist for the use of the extra lot parcel .

21. 2015-02-02
    historical
22. 2014-09-04
    listed $68,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,478 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,478 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,496
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,601
• − Property taxes: −$2,478
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,160
• − Management: −$1,160
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $688
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$165
• After-tax cash flow: $2,016/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison
• NCES district ID: 1201200
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $33,925
• Composite: 32.54/100
• National rank: #5693
• State rank: #64 of 73 in FL

Livability — Madison

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #437
• US rank: #7819

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,424

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,849 people
• By 2030: 15,883 · -5.7%
• By 2040: 13,861 · -17.7%
• By 2050: 11,918 · -29.3%
• By 2075: 7,810 · -53.6%
• By 2100: 4,684 · -72.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 43% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Iranian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.3% · R 64.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.8pp toward R · 2008: -3.1pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+19.5 2016: R+15.6 2012: R+3.4 2008: R+3.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 65.13%
• Current HPI: 268.8459
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+83.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $124,999 realMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $149,999 realMLS
• 2020-07-31 Listing Removed — CATRS
• 2020-07-29 Listed $11,000 CATRS
• 2016-09-23 Sold (MLS) $58,000 CATRS
• 2016-06-29 Listed $60,000 CATRS
• 2015-02-02 Listing Removed — CATRS
• 2014-09-04 Listed $68,000 CATRS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,478 · -2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.