8902 Kentshire Dr · Houston, TX 77078

$125,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1960 0.32 ac lot Est $181k · 31% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

What an incredible opportunity! Situated on two lots totaling over 14,000 sq ft, this 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers endless potential to create your own vision. The kitchen overlooks the dining area and front living space, filled with an abundance of natural light and offering a functional layout for everyday living. Bring your personal style and updates to each bedroom, with the primary suite featuring a convenient half bath. Outside, you'll find an amazing oversized lot with mature trees, beautiful green space, and a storage shed, all fully fenced for added privacy. The spacious property invites creativity with room to expand, garden, entertain, or enhance outdoor living. Enjoy the conv

Key facts

• Green space
• Two lots
• Fully fenced

Tags

• TWO LOTS
• OVERSIZED LOT
• MATURE TREES
• GREEN SPACE
• STORAGE SHED
• FULLY FENCED

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Attached carport with 2 carport spaces; Additional parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (first-floor living); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 1960; Brick and wood siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Fully fenced private yard; Back yard fencing; Concrete road/driveway; Property backs to greenbelt/park; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (first floor)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first floor); Bedroom (first floor); Bedroom (first floor)
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Primary bedroom with private bath; Tub/shower; Kitchen and dining combined
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $225 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.72%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $181,104
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8929 Caddo Rd	0.12mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,224 (+4%)	9mo	$199,900	$163	69
8925 Caddo Rd	0.11mi	3/3.0 (+1)	1,194 (+2%)	18mo	$199,900	$167	66
9834 Denning Dr	0.36mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (+2%)	10mo	$135,000	$113	65
9814 Trumpet St Unit -	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,125 (-4%)	2mo	$174,936	$155	64
9226 Everglade Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,284 (+9%)	2mo	$198,000	$154	56
9731 Trumpet St	0.45mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,140 (-3%)	17mo	$145,000	$127	54
9011 Parkette Dr	0.68mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,226 (+4%)	9mo	$135,000	$110	46
9334 Courben Cir	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,080 (-8%)	14mo	$160,000	$148	38
9406 Alcala Ct	0.69mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,048 (-11%)	10mo	$139,950	$134	34
9326 Meraldo Dr	0.59mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,048 (-11%)	22mo	$172,000	$164	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.5% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $26,145
• Equity at exit: $52,699

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $77,257
• Equity at exit: $78,589

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77078

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,435 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$201 /mo · $2,411/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $225

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,150

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $296	-5% $260	+0% $225	+5% $190	+10% $154
Rent	-10% $112	-5% $168	+0% $225	+5% $282	+10% $338
Rate	-1.0pp $288	-0.5pp $257	base $225	+0.5pp $193	+1.0pp $160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8600 Sterlingshire St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	732	$1,050	$1.43	25d	2	0.30mi
9700 Mesa Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	784	$922	$1.18	0d	9	0.32mi
9405 Caddo Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,675	$1.29	0d	1	0.61mi
9110 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	987	$1,200	$1.22	25d	1	0.68mi
9110 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	987	$1,185	$1.20	44d	1	0.68mi
8302 Caddo Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	896	$1,450	$1.62	44d	1	0.80mi
9393 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0	1050	$984	$0.94	0d	11	0.84mi
8711 Southwark St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	44d	1	0.87mi
9399 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1031	$1,107	$1.07	25d	1	0.88mi
9399 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	862	$982	$1.14	44d	1	0.88mi
9399 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	862	$982	$1.14	21d	1	0.88mi
8213 Bigwood St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,595	$1.39	44d	1	0.90mi
8350 Tidwell Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$975	$0.99	44d	1	0.92mi
8346 Tidwell Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$1,000	$1.02	44d	1	0.93mi
9222 Hillis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$1,850	$1.23	44d	1	0.96mi
8126 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,350	$1.17	25d	1	0.99mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,525	$1.31	15d	1	1.00mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,450	$1.25	15d	1	1.00mi
8631 Homewood Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	44d	1	1.12mi
8631 Homewood Ln Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,850	$1.23	44d	1	1.12mi
8627 Homewood Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,850	$1.23	44d	1	1.12mi
8625 Homewood Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	44d	1	1.12mi
8623 Homewood Ln Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,850	$1.61	19d	1	1.13mi
8623 Homewood Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,850	$1.61	44d	1	1.13mi
9133 Woodlyn Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1073	$1,495	$1.39	4d	1	1.25mi
8602 Wilkins Oaks Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,775	$1.36	44d	1	1.33mi
8003 Alpine Bearberry Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1696	$2,000	$1.18	8d	1	1.38mi
10708 Lavender Cotton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,150	$1.53	44d	1	1.40mi
9550 N Wayside Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	896	$1,199	$1.34	2d	5	1.47mi
9943 Valley Wind Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1319	$1,575	$1.19	0d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 699-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,411 · $201/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,411 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,219
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,411
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,378
• − Management: −$1,378
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $789
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$189
• After-tax cash flow: $2,511/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,247
• Household income: $39,093
• Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 780.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% Hispanic / Latino 46% Two or more races 15% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 41%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Current HPI: 307.0842
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+66.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $125,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-08-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-05-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-06-27 Listed $75,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,411 · +11.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.