Juniper Plan · McAllen, TX 78504

$296,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,328 sqft · SingleFamily · 341 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Juniper is a warm and welcoming two-story floor plan from our Haven Collection w ith 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, s tudy and game room ac ross 2,328 square feet of living space. It is designed with personalization in mind, offering a variety of upgrade options to suit your lifestyle. The Juniper boasts an open-concept kitchen, dining, and family area bathed in natural light and conveniently connected to the backyard. This floor plan is perfect for gathering and making memories. A first-floor study and powder room create flexible space, perfect for work or guests. A private first-floor primary suite offers a peaceful retreat, while the upstairs game room and two bedrooms create space for fun and connection. Convert the study and game room into two additional bedrooms, bringing the total to 5 bedrooms. Add extra bathrooms, a spacious covered patio, upgraded kitchen appliances, additional utility room cabinets with a sink, or even expand your garage for more storage capacity . These thoughtful upgrades allow you to tailor the home to fit your unique needs and priorities.

Key facts

• Flexible space
• First-floor study
• Open-concept kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• FIRST-FLOOR STUDY
• UPSTAIRS GAME ROOM
• SPACIOUS COVERED PATIO
• UPGRADED KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• FLEXIBLE SPACE

🏗️ New construction. The $296,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $293,445.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $297k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $49 ($592/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.7% in McAllen — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#119 in TX, #3,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Edinburg CISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #699 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 888 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 341 days — a 12% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $261,351 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 341 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.72%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $293,445
• List price: $296,990
• Delta: 1.21%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-45,500
• Equity at exit: $43,754

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-40,019
• Equity at exit: $25,372

Cash invested: $82,165 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78504

• Home prices YoY: -29.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 888
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,629 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,539
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$367 /mo · $4,402/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,567

Max offer price $293,445

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,361
• Closing costs: $8,803
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13921 N 36th St McAllen, TX	4.0	2.5	2084	$2,450	$1.18	43d	1	1.22mi
4400 Caddo Ln McAllen, TX	4.0	2.5	2069	$3,000	$1.45	43d	1	1.36mi
13904 N 39th St Edinburg, TX	3.0	2.0	2020	$2,500	$1.24	44d	1	1.37mi
4509 Ensenada Ave McAllen, TX	4.0	3.0	3052	$3,850	$1.26	43d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $296,990 Active 341 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $296,990 Active 340 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $296,990 Active 339 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $296,990 Active 338 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $296,990 Active 336 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $296,990 Active 335 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $296,990 Active 333 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $296,990 Active 331 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $296,990 Active 330 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $296,990 Active 326 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $296,990 Active 325 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $296,990 Active 324 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $296,990 Active 323 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $296,990 Active 322 DOM
15. 2026-01-01
    price $296,990 1086-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1086 chars)

    The Juniper is a warm and welcoming two-story floor plan from our Haven Collection w ith 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, s tudy and game room ac ross 2,328 square feet of living space. It is designed with personalization in mind, offering a variety of upgrade options to suit your lifestyle. The Juniper boasts an open-concept kitchen, dining, and family area bathed in natural light and conveniently connected to the backyard. This floor plan is perfect for gathering and making memories. A first-floor study and powder room create flexible space, perfect for work or guests. A private first-floor primary suite offers a peaceful retreat, while the upstairs game room and two bedrooms create space for fun and connection. Convert the study and game room into two additional bedrooms, bringing the total to 5 bedrooms. Add extra bathrooms, a spacious covered patio, upgraded kitchen appliances, additional utility room cabinets with a sink, or even expand your garage for more storage capacity . These thoughtful upgrades allow you to tailor the home to fit your unique needs and priorities.

16. 2025-07-12
    listed $295,990 Active 1086-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1086 chars)

    The Juniper is a warm and welcoming two-story floor plan from our Haven Collection w ith 3 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, s tudy and game room ac ross 2,328 square feet of living space. It is designed with personalization in mind, offering a variety of upgrade options to suit your lifestyle. The Juniper boasts an open-concept kitchen, dining, and family area bathed in natural light and conveniently connected to the backyard. This floor plan is perfect for gathering and making memories. A first-floor study and powder room create flexible space, perfect for work or guests. A private first-floor primary suite offers a peaceful retreat, while the upstairs game room and two bedrooms create space for fun and connection. Convert the study and game room into two additional bedrooms, bringing the total to 5 bedrooms. Add extra bathrooms, a spacious covered patio, upgraded kitchen appliances, additional utility room cabinets with a sink, or even expand your garage for more storage capacity . These thoughtful upgrades allow you to tailor the home to fit your unique needs and priorities.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X · 89% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,554
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,437
• − Property taxes: −$4,402
• − Insurance: −$1,467
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,524
• − Management: −$2,524
• − Depreciation: −$8,537
• Taxable loss: −$4,338
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,041
• After-tax cash flow: $1,633/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This Juniper plan is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates focusing on curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Interior touch-ups — Enhances interior aesthetics and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Enhances interior aesthetics and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Edinburg CISD
• NCES district ID: 4818180
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $36,985
• Composite: 22.42/100
• National rank: #8114
• State rank: #699 of 826 in TX

Livability — McAllen

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #119
• US rank: #3771

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 144,650
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 63,094
• Household income: $81,905
• Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1468.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 82% Two or more races 39% White 11% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 62% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.87%
• Current HPI: 194.1764
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.57%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-01 Price Changed $296,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-12 Listed $295,990 Zillow