312 SW 5th · Bogata, TX 75417

$119,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 63 Days on market

Built 1965 Fair condition $67/sqft · 38% below area Est $193k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• Appreciation +9.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

"Over the river and thru the woods to Grandmother's house we go". .. .. Step into the warmth and charm of this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home that feels just like grandmother’s house—full of character and comfort. Original hardwood floors add timeless beauty, while the inviting layout creates a cozy, welcoming atmosphere throughout. The very large dining and breakfast area offers plenty of space for family meals, gatherings, and making memories around the table. Outside, you’ll find a covered front porch perfect for relaxing with a cup of coffee and a large fenced yard ideal for pets, gardening, or outdoor enjoyment. This home blends nostalgic charm with everyday functionality, making it a perfect fit for anyone looking for comfort, space, and a touch of classic style. Don’t miss the opportunity to own a home that truly feels like home.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Large fenced yard
• Built 1965

Tags

• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LARGE FENCED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $120k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $14 ($167/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (11.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $107k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#915 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Rivercrest ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #212 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 14 units permitted in Red River County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (9.8% local appreciation)).
• Red River County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,651 (11.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.50%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $193,026
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -37.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
115 Brooks Dr	0.28mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,682 (-7%)	7mo	$169,900	$101	63
141 Mount Vernon Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,770 (-2%)	13mo	$160,000	$90	62
195 S Howison	0.23mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,629 (-10%)	6mo	$58,000	$36	59
637 S Bryson St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,678 (-7%)	20mo	$204,500	$122	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.79% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $64,499
• Equity at exit: $106,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.62×
• Total profit: $188,828
• Equity at exit: $227,122

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75417

• Home prices YoY: 6.2%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,067 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,798/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,049

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $119,900 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,900 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,900 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,900 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,900 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,900 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,900 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 44 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,900 Active 43 DOM
16. 2026-04-17
    listed $119,900 Active 874-char remark

    Show marketing remark (874 chars)

    "Over the river and thru the woods to Grandmother's house we go". .. .. Step into the warmth and charm of this 2-bedroom, 2-bath home that feels just like grandmother’s house—full of character and comfort. Original hardwood floors add timeless beauty, while the inviting layout creates a cozy, welcoming atmosphere throughout. The very large dining and breakfast area offers plenty of space for family meals, gatherings, and making memories around the table. Outside, you’ll find a covered front porch perfect for relaxing with a cup of coffee and a large fenced yard ideal for pets, gardening, or outdoor enjoyment. This home blends nostalgic charm with everyday functionality, making it a perfect fit for anyone looking for comfort, space, and a touch of classic style. Don’t miss the opportunity to own a home that truly feels like home.

17. 2026-04-16
    listed $1,200
18. 2026-04-16
    historical $1,200
19. 2026-04-15
    listed $1,200
20. 2025-07-28
    historical $1,100
21. 2025-07-22
    listed $1,100
22. 2024-06-13
    historical $800
23. 2024-06-13
    historical $800
24. 2024-06-05
    listed $800
25. 2024-06-04
    price $800
26. 2024-04-08
    historical $1,100
27. 2024-01-09
    listed $1,100
28. 2023-12-14
    listed $1,100
29. 2022-09-30
    historical
30. 2022-03-21
    listed $119,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,798
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$1,798
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,024
• − Management: −$1,024
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$1,852
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$444
• After-tax cash flow: $612/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This 2-bedroom, 2-bath home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathrooms, and service the HVAC units. Fresh paint and new fixtures will enhance its curb appeal and functionality.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — Original cabinets need updating
• Moderate bathroom fixtures — Original fixtures need updating
• Moderate HVAC units — Original units need maintenance

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Resale Replace kitchen cabinets — Modern cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics
• Resale Replace bathroom fixtures — Updated fixtures enhance functionality and aesthetics
• Rental Service HVAC units — Well-maintained HVAC units ensure comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · Original cabinets need updating	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom fixtures · Original fixtures need updating	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
HVAC units · Original units need maintenance	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$9,000–45,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen cabinets — Modern cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Resale Replace bathroom fixtures — Updated fixtures enhance functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Rental Service HVAC units — Well-maintained HVAC units ensure comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rivercrest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842120
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,064
• Composite: 40.93/100
• National rank: #3611
• State rank: #212 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bogata

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #915
• US rank: #16355

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bogata, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,204

Population outlook (Red River County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,454 people
• By 2030: 10,874 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 9,715 · -15.2%
• By 2050: 8,552 · -25.3%
• By 2075: 6,042 · -47.2%
• By 2100: 4,037 · -64.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 13% Native American 7% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Red River

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.8) · D 19.0% · R 80.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -38.0pp · 2024: -61.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.8 2020: R+56.3 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+40.7 2008: R+38.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.79%
• Current HPI: 166.851
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Listed $119,900 GTAR
• 2026-04-16 Listed for Rent $1,200 GTAR
• 2026-04-16 Rental Removed $1,200 Simplifyem
• 2026-04-15 Listed for Rent $1,200 Simplifyem
• 2025-07-28 Rental Removed $1,100 GTAR
• 2025-07-22 Listed for Rent $1,100 GTAR
• 2024-06-13 Rental Removed $800 RENT.
• 2024-06-13 Rental Removed $800 GTAR
• 2024-06-05 Listed for Rent $800 RENT.
• 2024-06-04 Price Changed $800 GTAR
• 2024-04-08 Rental Removed $1,100 RENT.
• 2024-01-09 Listed for Rent $1,100 RENT.
• 2023-12-14 Listed for Rent $1,100 GTAR
• 2022-09-30 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2022-03-21 Listed $119,900 NTREIS