5020 Forest Crest Dr · Lakeland, FL 33810

$190,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1987 4,800 sqft lot $75/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This large 1456 sq ft 2 bedroom 2 bathroom home offers an open floor plan, plenty of storage, a great community, and much more. The home has a formal living and dining room with built in cabinets and shelves. The large kitchen is equipped with a center island cooktop and is open to the large family room that comes complete with a built in wet bar. The master bedroom has a lovely bay window and is adjacent to a spacious master bath with two nice closets, a double basin vanity and an enclosed, step-in seated shower.

Key facts

• Coffee nook
• Natural light
• Foxwood lake estates

Tags

• FOXWOOD LAKE ESTATES
• NATURAL LIGHT
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• COFFEE NOOK
• NEWER WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Melody / Foxwood Lake Estates); Monthly HOA $75 (annual $900); Association approval required; Senior community; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected; Broadband/high-speed internet available
• Home design: Manufactured double wide; One level; Faces east; Residential property
• Construction: Metal siding; Membrane roof; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Cooktop; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Bamboo; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Thermostat; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $193 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (7.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 504 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $101k; list at $190k implies a 88% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,009 (7.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.36%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-18,906
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,382
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33810

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 504
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $463/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $193

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,505

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5227 Grace St E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1062	$1,775	$1.67	23d	1	0.37mi
907 Swann Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,960	$1.22	14d	1	0.63mi
6120 Burnett St Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$1,910	$1.91	3d	21	0.76mi
5233 US Highway 98 N Lakeland, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	794	$1,505	$1.89	2d	15	0.82mi
4500 Williamstown Blvd Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$1,508	$1.42	23d	1	0.85mi
1510 Galloway Oaks Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1066	$1,376	$1.29	21d	8	0.93mi
909 Shirley Ann Trl Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$1,460	$1.54	23d	1	0.98mi
1545 Kennedy Blvd Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,682	$1.69	2d	24	1.01mi
4240 Summer Landing Dr #106 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1038	$1,700	$1.64	23d	1	1.06mi
4240 Summer Landing Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1083	$1,450	$1.34	14d	2	1.06mi
6032 Norton Rd Unit 6032 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	880	$1,295	$1.47	23d	1	1.08mi
6031 Crafton Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	914	$1,125	$1.23	14d	1	1.16mi
4083 Dover Terrace Dr Unit 4083 Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,975	$1.12	23d	1	1.33mi
6131 Doe Cir E Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1353	$1,700	$1.26	14d	1	1.34mi
3867 Hampstead Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,795	$1.10	3d	1	1.36mi
4111 Solamor St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1619	$2,400	$1.48	14d	1	1.37mi
3824 Exeter Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,795	$1.01	2d	1	1.40mi
3805 Exeter Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1771	$1,900	$1.07	14d	1	1.41mi
5817 Daughtery Downs Loop Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,800	$1.12	23d	1	1.41mi
5817 Daughtery Downs Loop Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,800	$1.12	14d	1	1.41mi
3842 Hampstead Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.5	1633	$1,800	$1.10	14d	1	1.41mi
733 Carpenters Way #37 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.5	1307	$1,400	$1.07	19d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-16
   statusdays on market $190,000 Pending 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-13
   listed $190,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $463 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,114/yr (+$93/mo · 240.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,001
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$463
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$843
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$202
• After-tax cash flow: $2,523/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,137
• Household income: $69,986
• Rent vs Own: 23.3% rent · 76.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1208.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 23% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -194.94%
• Current HPI: 320.7366
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1800.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $101,000 Public Records
• 2018-10-17 Sold (MLS) $103,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-20 Listed $102,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $67,000 Public Records
• 2013-10-28 Sold (MLS) $67,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-08-28 Listed $69,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1986-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $463 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.