3538 NW 21st St · Cape Coral, FL 33993

$190,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · Land · 86 Days on market

Built 2026 10,018 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cleared lot and ready to built, surrounded by beautiful new construction and gulf access homes. Close to Burnt Store Marina, Coral Oaks Golf Course, and more. Build here your forever home or buy as an Investment. No owls or tortoises restriction on this lot is a plus. Survey, approved site plan, septic system permit, and truss layout available. Don't miss this opportunity!

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• PEACEFUL RESIDENTIAL SETTING
• OUTDOOR RECREATION
• BUILDING PLANS INCLUDED
• BLOCK WALLS COMPLETED
• ROOF STRUCTURE COMPLETED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: R1-D; Lot dimensions approximately 125' front/back by 80' sides (total area listed as 0.23 acres); Restrictions: No RV, No truck; Single unit, single-floor building
• HOA & community: Non-gated community; No HOA maintenance; No community amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential; 1 story / ranch; Rear of property faces south; Located in the Cape Coral development
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Storm protection described in remarks; Windows described in remarks; Paved road access; Regular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; No master bath (listed as none)
• Interior features: Dining areas include family dining, formal living dining, and an eat-in kitchen; Split bedroom floor plan; Unfurnished; See remarks for additional interior details

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $773 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $179k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 3.1% in Cape Coral — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#208 in FL, #3,098 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities B+; Watch: commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 2652 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.93%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $10,926
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $43,915
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33993

• Home prices YoY: -14.1%
• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 2652
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,557 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,262/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$537
• Net cashflow: $773

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,579

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2325 NW 34th Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,796	$0.98	3d	1	0.47mi
2113 NW 41st Ave Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	1904	$2,200	$1.16	3d	1	0.61mi
1521 NW 37th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	3.0	2000	$2,700	$1.35	23d	1	0.63mi
4116 NW 20th St Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	2506	$2,200	$0.88	10d	1	0.66mi
4116 NW 20th Ter Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	1904	$2,200	$1.16	10d	1	0.66mi
2127 NW 41st Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,876	$1.03	3d	1	0.69mi
4113 Kismet Pkwy Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	1816	$2,300	$1.27	3d	1	0.82mi
1255 NW 38th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	3.0	2219	$6,500	$2.93	23d	1	0.87mi
4102 NW 26th St Cape Coral, FL	5.0	3.0	2561	$3,100	$1.21	15d	1	0.94mi
1220 NW 36th Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1468	$1,995	$1.36	13d	1	0.97mi
2532 NW 31st Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1750	$2,400	$1.37	23d	1	1.02mi
1221 NW 33rd Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	2035	$3,995	$1.96	15d	1	1.05mi
1049 NW 38th Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	2009	$4,570	$2.27	23d	1	1.12mi
2812 NW 25th St Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1657	$1,950	$1.18	23d	1	1.14mi
2726 NW 41st Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	1904	$2,200	$1.16	3d	1	1.15mi
2928 NW 27th St Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1853	$1,999	$1.08	21d	1	1.18mi
2928 NW 27th St Cape Coral, FL	4.0	2.0	1853	$1,999	$1.08	23d	1	1.18mi
2800 NW 25th Ter Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1469	$2,000	$1.36	3d	1	1.21mi
2302 NW 27th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	2136	$1,691	$0.79	21d	1	1.24mi
2329 NW 27th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1761	$2,300	$1.31	15d	1	1.27mi
2001 NW 25th Ave Cape Coral, FL	3.0	2.0	1887	$2,500	$1.32	23d	1	1.44mi
1119 NW 28th Pl Cape Coral, FL	3.0	3.0	2047	$2,400	$1.17	23d	1	1.45mi
825 NW 38th Pl Cape Coral, FL	4.0	3.0	2594	$2,699	$1.04	23d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $190,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $190,000 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $190,000 Active 72 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $190,000 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-04-28
    price $190,000
13. 2026-03-23
    listed $210,000 Active
14. 2024-03-12
    soldstatus $771,286
15. 2024-03-08
    soldstatus $57,000 Closed 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Cleared lot and ready to built, surrounded by beautiful new construction and gulf access homes. Close to Burnt Store Marina, Coral Oaks Golf Course, and more. Build here your forever home or buy as an Investment. No owls or tortoises restriction on this lot is a plus. Survey, approved site plan, septic system permit, and truss layout available. Don't miss this opportunity!

16. 2024-02-15
    status Pending 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Cleared lot and ready to built, surrounded by beautiful new construction and gulf access homes. Close to Burnt Store Marina, Coral Oaks Golf Course, and more. Build here your forever home or buy as an Investment. No owls or tortoises restriction on this lot is a plus. Survey, approved site plan, septic system permit, and truss layout available. Don't miss this opportunity!

17. 2024-02-10
    price $60,000 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Cleared lot and ready to built, surrounded by beautiful new construction and gulf access homes. Close to Burnt Store Marina, Coral Oaks Golf Course, and more. Build here your forever home or buy as an Investment. No owls or tortoises restriction on this lot is a plus. Survey, approved site plan, septic system permit, and truss layout available. Don't miss this opportunity!

18. 2024-01-26
    listed $53,900 Active 375-char remark

    Show marketing remark (375 chars)

    Cleared lot and ready to built, surrounded by beautiful new construction and gulf access homes. Close to Burnt Store Marina, Coral Oaks Golf Course, and more. Build here your forever home or buy as an Investment. No owls or tortoises restriction on this lot is a plus. Survey, approved site plan, septic system permit, and truss layout available. Don't miss this opportunity!

19. 2022-08-30
    soldstatus $53,100 Closed 24-char remark

    Show marketing remark (24 chars)

    Nice Cape Coral Homesite

20. 2022-08-30
    soldstatus $53,100

    Show marketing remark (24 chars)

    Nice Cape Coral Homesite

21. 2022-07-27
    status Pending 24-char remark

    Show marketing remark (24 chars)

    Nice Cape Coral Homesite

22. 2022-07-21
    price $54,900 24-char remark

    Show marketing remark (24 chars)

    Nice Cape Coral Homesite

23. 2022-06-09
    price $69,900 24-char remark

    Show marketing remark (24 chars)

    Nice Cape Coral Homesite

24. 2022-05-13
    price $77,900 24-char remark

    Show marketing remark (24 chars)

    Nice Cape Coral Homesite

25. 2022-04-05
    price $79,900 24-char remark

    Show marketing remark (24 chars)

    Nice Cape Coral Homesite

26. 2022-02-16
    price $69,900 24-char remark

    Show marketing remark (24 chars)

    Nice Cape Coral Homesite

27. 2021-09-15
    price $59,900 24-char remark

    Show marketing remark (24 chars)

    Nice Cape Coral Homesite

28. 2021-07-19
    soldstatus $30,000
29. 2021-07-16
    listed $49,900 Active 24-char remark

    Show marketing remark (24 chars)

    Nice Cape Coral Homesite

30. 2004-06-28
    soldstatus $42,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,262 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$315/yr (+$26/mo · 25.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,681
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,262
• − Insurance: −$1,748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,454
• − Management: −$2,454
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $6,592
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,582
• After-tax cash flow: $7,689/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Cape Coral

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #208
• US rank: #3098

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living B Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cape Coral, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 217,388
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,580
• Household income: $90,577
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 286.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 21% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 17% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.34%
• Current HPI: 337.0575
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.51%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+347.1% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $190,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $210,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $771,286 Public Records
• 2024-03-08 Sold (MLS) $57,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-02-15 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2024-02-10 Price Changed $60,000 FORTMLS
• 2024-01-26 Listed $53,900 FORTMLS
• 2022-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $53,100 Public Records
• 2022-08-30 Sold (MLS) $53,100 FORTMLS
• 2022-07-27 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2022-07-21 Price Changed $54,900 FORTMLS
• 2022-06-09 Price Changed $69,900 FORTMLS
• 2022-05-13 Price Changed $77,900 FORTMLS
• 2022-04-05 Price Changed $79,900 FORTMLS
• 2022-02-16 Price Changed $69,900 FORTMLS
• 2021-09-15 Price Changed $59,900 FORTMLS
• 2021-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2021-07-16 Listed $49,900 FORTMLS
• 2004-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $42,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,262 · +12.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.