6706 Tam O Shanter Dr #75 · Stockton, CA 95210

$199,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Manufactured · 138 Days on market

Built 1984 Fair condition $112/sqft · 45% above area Est $138k · 45% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to THE PINES Mobile Estates Senior Park. This spacious triple-wide mobile home located in the desirable senior community at 6706 Tam O'Shanter Dr. , Space 75 in Stockton. Offering over 1,700 sq. ft. of comfortable living space, this well-designed home features 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, providing plenty of room to relax and entertain. With an easy to maintain backyard and comfortable porch area. Ideally situated near the community pool and clubhouse, this home allows you to fully enjoy the amenities and social lifestyle the park offers. The open layout creates a warm and inviting atmosphere, perfect for everyday living or hosting guests. Conveniently located near Kaiser Perman

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Community pool
• Easy freeway access

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• EASY FREEWAY ACCESS
• COMFORTABLE PORCH AREA
• EASY TO MAINTAIN BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $765 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, crime F.
• Stockton Unified (urban): math 23% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #295 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 102 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,718/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($68k/yr) (locally 1817% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.1% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.40%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,929
• List price: $199,999
• Delta: 45.00%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6706 Tam O Shanter Dr #126	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (+0%)	3mo	$129,000	$72	92
6706 Tam O Shanter #96	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-6%)	4mo	$151,000	$90	86
6706 Tam O'shanter #58	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,906 (+6%)	6mo	$140,000	$73	85
6706 Tam O'shanter Dr #112	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,920 (+7%)	6mo	$145,000	$76	83
6706 Tam O Shanter #31	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,886 (+5%)	15mo	$160,000	$85	74
6706 Tam O Shanter Dr #10	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,900 (+6%)	12mo	$120,000	$63	73
6706 Tam O Shanter Dr #61	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,584 (-12%)	7mo	$175,000	$110	70
6706 Tam O Shanter Dr #146	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,980 (+10%)	9mo	$120,000	$61	70
6706 Tam O Shanter Dr #17	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,558 (-13%)	8mo	$170,000	$109	66
6706 Tam O Shanter Dr #2	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,674 (-7%)	22mo	$127,000	$76	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $28,026
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $139,341
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95210

• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,718 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $765

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,750

Max offer price $199,999

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5761 Caribbean Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1533	$3,200	$2.09	43d	1	0.62mi
201 Vincente Way Stockton, CA	4.0	2.0	1464	$3,500	$2.39	43d	1	0.63mi
5337 Barbados Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1309	$2,300	$1.76	21d	1	0.67mi
218 E Longview Ave Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,350	$1.66	14d	1	0.80mi
144 E Lincoln Rd Stockton, CA	4.0	2.5	1985	$2,995	$1.51	43d	1	0.82mi
5509 Kermit Ln Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1317	$2,500	$1.90	14d	1	0.86mi
5509 Kermit Ln Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1317	$2,500	$1.90	3d	1	0.86mi
5952 Dresden Way Stockton, CA	4.0	2.5	2398	$3,000	$1.25	23d	1	0.96mi
1857 Crestwood Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1561	$2,450	$1.57	43d	1	1.27mi
1768 Crestwood Cir Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1389	$2,500	$1.80	43d	1	1.29mi
4790 Winona Way Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1483	$2,450	$1.65	23d	1	1.31mi
8446 N El Dorado St Stockton, CA	3.0	2.0	1269	$2,300	$1.81	43d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,999 Active 138 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,999 Active 137 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,620
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,610
• − Management: −$2,610
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $6,380
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,531
• After-tax cash flow: $7,653/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This triple-wide manufactured home requires moderate repairs and updates to improve its condition and value. Painting, flooring, and appliance updates are recommended to enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Paint — Some discoloration on exterior and interior walls
• Minor Flooring — Some wear on carpeted floors
• Minor Kitchen appliances — Dated appliances
• Minor Bathroom fixtures — Dated design

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace flooring — Improves comfort and value
• Both Update kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and attracts buyers
• Both Update bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the space and attracts buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Paint · Some discoloration on exterior and interior walls	Minor	$500–3,000
Flooring · Some wear on carpeted floors	Minor	$500–3,000
Kitchen appliances · Dated appliances	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathroom fixtures · Dated design	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$2,000–12,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace flooring — Improves comfort and value ↑
• Both Update kitchen appliances — Modernizes the space and attracts buyers ↑
• Both Update bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the space and attracts buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stockton Unified
• NCES district ID: 0638010
• Math proficiency: 23% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $37,563
• Composite: 28.65/100
• National rank: #6701
• State rank: #295 of 517 in CA

Livability — Stockton

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #734
• US rank: #21638

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stockton, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 332,006
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 41,549
• Household income: $67,991
• Rent vs Own: 49.4% rent · 50.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1817.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Asian 31% Two or more races 21% White 13% Black 11% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Asian/Pacific 12% Other Indo-European 6%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.31%
• Current HPI: 349.495
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.09%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B