9471 Fairfax Blvd #103 · Fairfax, VA 22031

$200,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 698 sqft · Condo public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1963 $287/sqft · at area comps Est $207k · at est. $440/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.1/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

THIS PROPERTY HAS GREAT POTENTIAL AND NEEDS TO REMODELED. ALL UTILITIES ARE INCLUDED IN THE CONDO FEE. CASH BUYERS OR DSCR LOAN . SOLD AS IS. SELLER OFFERING A $15K CREDIT AT CLOSING. CONTACT Michelle Hewitt Commercial Loan Originator

Key facts

• $440 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1963

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-111 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (9.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $180k (9.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.2% in Fairfax — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#13 in VA, #315 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, amenities A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.1%/yr); 139 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 71 units permitted in Fairfax city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fairfax County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $59k; list at $200k implies a 240% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,459 (9.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.37%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $207,455
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -3.59%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-45,293
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.27×
• Total profit: $-71,027
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22031

• Rents YoY: -3.1%
• Active inventory: 139
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,081 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,193/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$440
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$437
• Net cashflow: $-111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,221

Max offer price $180,459

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9450 Fairfax Blvd Fairfax, VA	3.0	1.0–2.0	1090	$2,567	$2.35	1d	28	0.10mi
9401 Lee Hwy Fairfax, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1120	$1,599	$1.43	1d	36	0.28mi
9555 Blake Ln Fairfax, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	852	$1,790	$2.10	43d	1	0.39mi
9333 Clocktower Pl Fairfax, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	974	$2,275	$2.34	1d	38	0.63mi
2975 Hunters Branch Rd Fairfax, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	954	$1,989	$2.08	5d	18	0.75mi
10025 Fair Woods Dr #143 Fairfax, VA	1.0	1.0	720	$1,750	$2.43	43d	1	1.12mi
2765 Centerboro Dr Vienna, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	911	$2,150	$2.36	20d	2	1.13mi
9480 Virginia Center Blvd Unit 104 Vienna, VA	1.0	1.0	741	$1,950	$2.63	43d	1	1.15mi
3316 Prosperity Ave Fairfax, VA	—	1.0	680	$1,900	$2.79	1d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $440 · $5,280/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $200,000 Pending 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $200,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $200,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $200,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-04-22
    price $200,000 234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    THIS PROPERTY HAS GREAT POTENTIAL AND NEEDS TO REMODELED. ALL UTILITIES ARE INCLUDED IN THE CONDO FEE. CASH BUYERS OR DSCR LOAN . SOLD AS IS. SELLER OFFERING A $15K CREDIT AT CLOSING. CONTACT Michelle Hewitt Commercial Loan Originator

17. 2026-03-26
    listed $210,000 Active 234-char remark

    Show marketing remark (234 chars)

    THIS PROPERTY HAS GREAT POTENTIAL AND NEEDS TO REMODELED. ALL UTILITIES ARE INCLUDED IN THE CONDO FEE. CASH BUYERS OR DSCR LOAN . SOLD AS IS. SELLER OFFERING A $15K CREDIT AT CLOSING. CONTACT Michelle Hewitt Commercial Loan Originator

18. 2001-03-01
    soldstatus $58,800
19. 1989-12-04
    soldstatus $65,375

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,193 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,193 · $183/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,977
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,193
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,998
• − Management: −$1,998
• − HOA: −$5,280
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$4,514
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,083
• After-tax cash flow: $-244/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Fairfax

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #13
• US rank: #315

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfax, VA
• County: Fairfax County · 1,104,456 people
• City population: 138,134
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 37,276
• Household income: $134,577
• Rent vs Own: 51.6% rent · 48.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1368.0

Population outlook (Fairfax County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,615 people
• By 2030: 26,369 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 27,692 · +8.1%
• By 2050: 28,756 · +12.3%
• By 2075: 31,201 · +21.8%
• By 2100: 32,455 · +26.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Asian 31% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Other Indo-European 11% Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Fairfax

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+33.4) · D 65.4% · R 32.0% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.9pp toward D · 2008: 16.5pp · 2024: 33.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+33.4 2020: D+38.3 2016: D+30.9 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+16.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -412.96%
• Current HPI: 310.2994
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.09%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+205.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-26 Listed $210,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2001-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $58,800 Public Records
• 1989-12-04 Sold (Public Records) $65,375 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,193 · +12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.