25661 Chestnut Dr · Broken Arrow, OK 74014

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,633 sqft · Land public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1979 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away on a quiet cul-de-sac, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home sits on a spacious 1-acre lot offering plenty of room to spread out and enjoy the outdoors. The property features a detached 3-car garage/shop in the back, perfect for additional storage, hobbies, or workspace. The home itself has a new HVAC installed in 2023, providing peace of mind on one of the major updates already completed. Inside, the property offers a great layout and solid bones, just waiting for a buyer to bring their vision and make it their own. With a little updating and TLC, this home has incredible potential to truly shine in a desirable setting.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1979

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Community gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s); No safety shelter
• Utilities: Electricity available; Natural gas available; High-speed internet available; Water available (rural water source); Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces northeast; Slab foundation
• Construction: HardiPlank, stone and wood frame construction; Asphalt/fiberglass roof; Built per public records
• Exterior features: Patio; Rain gutters; Chain link fencing; Second garage structure; Mature trees; Cul-de-sac lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with private bath (first level); Additional bedrooms on first level
• Flooring: Tile; Wood veneer
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Master bath with double sink and shower; Hall bath with bathtub
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High ceilings with vaulted areas; Ceiling fans; Laminate countertops; Vinyl windows
• Laundry & utility: Inside utility room; Gas dryer hookup; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-67 ($-808/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (23.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (23.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.0% in Broken Arrow — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#7 in OK, #2,691 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Broken Arrow (suburban): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #79 of 270 in OK (top 29%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Highland Park Es (math 41% / reading 33%, grade F, #132 of 845 statewide, top 19%, 698 students, 0% FRL); Oneta Ridge Ms (math 25% / reading 26%, grade F, #84 of 345 statewide, top 26%, 924 students, 0% FRL); Broken Arrow Hs (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #120 of 447 statewide, top 27%, 4,589 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 33% district-wide (33 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 655 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 581 units permitted in Wagoner County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wagoner County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,926 (23.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.16%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-46,371
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-52,900
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74014

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 655
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,909 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,993/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $-67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,994

Max offer price $237,111

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $74	-5% $3	+0% $-67	+5% $-138	+10% $-208
Rent	-10% $-218	-5% $-143	+0% $-67	+5% $8	+10% $84
Rate	-1.0pp $58	-0.5pp $-4	base $-67	+0.5pp $-132	+1.0pp $-197

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9127 S 256th East Ave Broken Arrow, OK	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,750	$1.20	3d	1	0.90mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-07
   listed $249,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,993 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,241 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$248/yr (+$21/mo · 12.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,911
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$1,993
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,833
• − Management: −$1,833
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$5,184
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,244
• After-tax cash flow: $437/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Broken Arrow
• NCES district ID: 4005490
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,646
• Composite: 23.86/100
• National rank: #7801
• State rank: #79 of 270 in OK

Livability — Broken Arrow

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #7
• US rank: #2691

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Wagoner County · 61,834 people
• City population: 144,172
• Metro: Tulsa, OK
• Population (ZIP): 45,212
• Household income: $95,501
• Rent vs Own: 12.1% rent · 87.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 289.0

Population outlook (Wagoner County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,796 people
• By 2030: 88,162 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 93,882 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 98,219 · +15.8%
• By 2075: 106,561 · +25.7%
• By 2100: 109,360 · +29.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Native American 6% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wagoner

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.2% · R 74.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.0pp toward R · 2008: -41.8pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+50.1 2016: R+52.0 2012: R+45.7 2008: R+41.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -206.67%
• Current HPI: 203.7301
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.12%
• Metro: Tulsa, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Pending — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2026-05-07 Listed $249,000 MLS Technology, Inc.

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,993 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.