1620 Holly Vista St · Waco, TX 76711

$160,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,258 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 200 Days on market

Built 1966 8,999 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Calling all investors, come see this 7 bedrooms, 2 bathroom and 2 living room home, with over 2258 sqft. This home is located in the South Waco Area, just 2 minutes from the New Kendrick Elementary school.

Key facts

• 8,999 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1966

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-143 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $135k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (1.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime D, commute F.
• Waco ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #773 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 43 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,742 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.83%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.57% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $14,606
• Equity at exit: $77,094

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $58,369
• Equity at exit: $122,981

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76711

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,570 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$478 /mo · $5,735/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $-143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,751

Max offer price $134,742

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3300 Wynmore Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1678	$1,850	$1.10	43d	1	1.37mi
3300 Wynmore Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1678	$1,850	$1.10	21d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $160,000 Active 200 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $160,000 Active 199 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $160,000 Active 198 DOM
4. 2025-11-21
   price $160,000 205-char remark

   Show marketing remark (205 chars)

   Calling all investors, come see this 7 bedrooms, 2 bathroom and 2 living room home, with over 2258 sqft. This home is located in the South Waco Area, just 2 minutes from the New Kendrick Elementary school.

5. 2025-11-20
   status Active 205-char remark

   Show marketing remark (205 chars)

   Calling all investors, come see this 7 bedrooms, 2 bathroom and 2 living room home, with over 2258 sqft. This home is located in the South Waco Area, just 2 minutes from the New Kendrick Elementary school.

6. 2025-10-26
   listed $169,000 Active 205-char remark

   Show marketing remark (205 chars)

   Calling all investors, come see this 7 bedrooms, 2 bathroom and 2 living room home, with over 2258 sqft. This home is located in the South Waco Area, just 2 minutes from the New Kendrick Elementary school.

7. 2024-11-21
   soldstatus
8. 2024-11-21
   soldstatus
9. 2023-04-28
   historical
10. 2023-04-18
    listed $159,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,735 · $478/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,735 · $478/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,846
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$5,735
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,508
• − Management: −$1,508
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$4,322
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,037
• After-tax cash flow: $-679/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waco ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844280
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,208
• Composite: 17.57/100
• National rank: #9043
• State rank: #773 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 9,676
• Household income: $53,185
• Rent vs Own: 48.1% rent · 51.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 424.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% Two or more races 43% White 23% Black 12% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 56%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.57%
• Current HPI: 261.7166
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $160,000 NTREIS
• 2025-11-20 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-10-26 Listed $169,000 NTREIS
• 2024-11-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-11-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-04-28 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-04-18 Listed $159,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,735 · +47.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.