20423 Moon Walk Dr · Houston, TX 77338

$220,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,784 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2014 5,693 sqft lot $79/sqft · 21% below area Est $279k · 21% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 33% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home! This beautifully designed two-story residence offers a seamless blend of style and functionality. The open-concept living area is anchored by a gourmet kitchen that overlooks the spacious living room, perfect for entertaining. The main floor features a private office and the primary bedroom suite, a true retreat complete with a spa-like en-suite bathroom boasting double sinks, a separate shower, a relaxing Jacuzzi tub, and a walk-in closet. Upstairs, you'll find three additional generously sized bedrooms, two full bathrooms, and an expansive game room, providing plenty of space for leisure and family activities. Outside, enjoy the tranquility of a nicely landscaped backyard, c

Key facts

• 5,693 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2014

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association managed by Spectrum Association Mgmt; Annual association fee of $350; Community curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with automatic garage door opener; Two garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Two-story with main living areas and primary bedroom on the first floor; Entry facing not specified
• Construction: Built in 2014; Brick, cement siding, and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Deck; Fenced backyard; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Gas oven and gas range; Free-standing range; Oven
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Three additional bedrooms on the second floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning; Thermostat (programmable)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Jetted tub; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Utility room on the first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-72 ($-861/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (5.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
• Recommended offer: $207k (5.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 306 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,323 (5.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.40%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,380
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: 10.96%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20406 Kittredge Dr	0.08mi	4/3.5	2,860 (+3%)	21mo	$320,000	$112	74
20419 Moon Walk Dr	0.01mi	4/2.5	2,534 (-9%)	12mo	$325,000	$128	70
20510 Humble Brook Dr	0.27mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,788 (+0%)	15mo	$282,500	$101	65
19910 Sweet Magnolia Pl	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,772 (-0%)	9mo	$249,900	$90	63
20414 Lionsgate Ln	0.20mi	4/2.5	2,592 (-7%)	18mo	$259,000	$100	60
20419 Flatiron Dr	0.11mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,513 (-10%)	20mo	$299,000	$119	57
20422 Lookout Bend Dr	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,903 (+4%)	16mo	$300,000	$103	57
9015 Eldorado Glen Dr	0.28mi	4/2.5	2,471 (-11%)	18mo	$269,900	$109	49
19907 Malletia Dr	0.51mi	4/2.5	2,454 (-12%)	20mo	$300,000	$122	36
8215 Burnt Ash Dr	0.49mi	4/2.5	2,406 (-14%)	19mo	$249,900	$104	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.77% appreciation · 2.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-20,552
• Equity at exit: $55,493

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-10,216
• Equity at exit: $60,331

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77338

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 306
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,351 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$654 /mo · $7,853/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,442

Max offer price $207,323

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $53	-5% $-9	+0% $-72	+5% $-134	+10% $-196
Rent	-10% $-257	-5% $-165	+0% $-72	+5% $21	+10% $114
Rate	-1.0pp $39	-0.5pp $-16	base $-72	+0.5pp $-129	+1.0pp $-187

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8818 Cornina Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.5	2868	$2,295	$0.80	0d	1	0.07mi
20527 Faith Millstream Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2178	$2,100	$0.96	44d	1	0.32mi
8419 Opalwood Ln Unit Main Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2084	$2,482	$1.19	19d	1	0.34mi
20257 Fieldtree Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,500	$1.04	25d	1	1.08mi
19931 Arrowsmith Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2264	$1,831	$0.81	25d	1	1.12mi
20911 Foxwood Glen Ln Humble, TX	5.0	2.5	2690	$2,475	$0.92	44d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-14
   historical
2. 2026-04-29
   status Active
3. 2026-04-19
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
5. 2026-04-01
   price $310,000
6. 2026-03-16
   price $317,500
7. 2026-02-19
   listed $327,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,853 · $654/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,853 · $654/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$7,853
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,257
• − Management: −$2,257
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$4,330
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,039
• After-tax cash flow: $178/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aldine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807710
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,081
• Composite: 15.42/100
• National rank: #9317
• State rank: #790 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,031
• Household income: $64,755
• Rent vs Own: 52.5% rent · 47.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 2620.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 41% Black 34% Two or more races 18% White 16% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Armenian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 35% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.77%
• Current HPI: 245.7087
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-32.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-05-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Listed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $310,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $317,500 HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $327,500 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,853 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.