2808 County Road 643 · Nevada, TX 75173

$419,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,192 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 2004 1.00 ac lot $191/sqft · 18% below area Est $513k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Cash flow +3.3/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated on a spacious one-acre lot, this beautifully updated home offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and outdoor living. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and office , this property provides flexible space ideal for working from home, hosting guests, or everyday living. Step inside to find fresh paint throughout, durable laminate flooring, and trending statement light fixtures that add a stylish modern touch. Every room is equipped with a ceiling fan for enhanced comfort and energy efficiency. The inviting living room serves as the heart of the home, highlighted by a warm wood-burning fireplace—perfect for cozy evenings and gathering with family and friends. Designed with both convenience and peace of mind in mind, the garage features an 8-person storm shelter, offering added security during Texas storm season. The home is also equipped with Jellyfish permanent exterior lighting, allowing you to customize lighting year-round for holidays, game days, special occasions, or everyday curb appeal—all controlled with ease. Step outside and enjoy your own private backyard retreat. The above-ground pool with attached deck has been meticulously maintained with weekly professional pool service, creating an ideal space for summer entertaining, weekend relaxation, or cooling off after a long day. The expansive acre lot provides endless possibilities with room to garden, play, or simply enjoy wide-open space. A chicken coop adds charm and functionality for those seeking a touch of country living, while the storage shed offers additional space for tools, hobbies, or equipment. With modern updates, thoughtful features, and plenty of outdoor amenities, this property delivers peaceful country-style living while still offering convenient access to nearby shopping, dining, and commuting routes.

Key facts

• Attached deck
• One acre lot
• Office space

Tags

• ONE ACRE LOT
• OFFICE SPACE
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• 8 PERSON STORM SHELTER
• ABOVE GROUND POOL
• ATTACHED DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $419k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (54.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (50.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (54.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 2.6% vs local median 1.9% in Nevada — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#881 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Farmersville ISD (town): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #298 of 826 in TX (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 421 active listings in the ZIP; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$72k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($394k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,810 (54.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.27%
• DSCR: 0.41
• GRM: 16.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $512,592
• List price: $419,000
• Delta: -18.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3815 Tower Cir	0.13mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,278 (+4%)	4mo	$465,000	$204	79
2900 County Road 643	0.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,006 (-8%)	2mo	$365,000	$182	73
3915 Tower Cir	0.24mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,311 (+5%)	4mo	$415,000	$180	70
2515 County Road 643	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,350 (+7%)	1mo	$500,000	$213	66
2212 Hamilton Ln	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,155 (-2%)	12mo	$549,000	$255	63
2655 County Road 643	0.17mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,478 (+13%)	15mo	$589,000	$238	51
3160 Gunsmoke Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,067 (-6%)	6mo	$439,000	$212	48
3221 Gunsmoke Dr	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,011 (-8%)	11mo	$468,000	$233	45
1212 Brandon St	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,455 (+12%)	24mo	$690,000	$281	35
2425 County Road 643	0.40mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,515 (+15%)	22mo	$615,000	$245	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $145,633
• Equity at exit: $377,468

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.21×
• Total profit: $493,976
• Equity at exit: $814,025

Cash invested: $117,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75173

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 421
• Price-to-rent: 16.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,094 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,197
• Tax from tax record: −$580 /mo · $6,954/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-1,297

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,736

Max offer price $189,810

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,750
• Closing costs: $12,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $419,000 Active 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $419,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $419,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $419,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $419,000 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $419,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $419,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $419,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $419,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $419,000 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $419,000 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $419,000 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $419,000 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $419,000 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-04-27
    price $425,000 1839-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1839 chars)

    Situated on a spacious one-acre lot, this beautifully updated home offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and outdoor living. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and office , this property provides flexible space ideal for working from home, hosting guests, or everyday living. Step inside to find fresh paint throughout, durable laminate flooring, and trending statement light fixtures that add a stylish modern touch. Every room is equipped with a ceiling fan for enhanced comfort and energy efficiency. The inviting living room serves as the heart of the home, highlighted by a warm wood-burning fireplace—perfect for cozy evenings and gathering with family and friends. Designed with both convenience and peace of mind in mind, the garage features an 8-person storm shelter, offering added security during Texas storm season. The home is also equipped with Jellyfish permanent exterior lighting, allowing you to customize lighting year-round for holidays, game days, special occasions, or everyday curb appeal—all controlled with ease. Step outside and enjoy your own private backyard retreat. The above-ground pool with attached deck has been meticulously maintained with weekly professional pool service, creating an ideal space for summer entertaining, weekend relaxation, or cooling off after a long day. The expansive acre lot provides endless possibilities with room to garden, play, or simply enjoy wide-open space. A chicken coop adds charm and functionality for those seeking a touch of country living, while the storage shed offers additional space for tools, hobbies, or equipment. With modern updates, thoughtful features, and plenty of outdoor amenities, this property delivers peaceful country-style living while still offering convenient access to nearby shopping, dining, and commuting routes.

16. 2026-04-04
    listed $435,000 Active 1839-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1839 chars)

    Situated on a spacious one-acre lot, this beautifully updated home offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and outdoor living. Featuring 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and office , this property provides flexible space ideal for working from home, hosting guests, or everyday living. Step inside to find fresh paint throughout, durable laminate flooring, and trending statement light fixtures that add a stylish modern touch. Every room is equipped with a ceiling fan for enhanced comfort and energy efficiency. The inviting living room serves as the heart of the home, highlighted by a warm wood-burning fireplace—perfect for cozy evenings and gathering with family and friends. Designed with both convenience and peace of mind in mind, the garage features an 8-person storm shelter, offering added security during Texas storm season. The home is also equipped with Jellyfish permanent exterior lighting, allowing you to customize lighting year-round for holidays, game days, special occasions, or everyday curb appeal—all controlled with ease. Step outside and enjoy your own private backyard retreat. The above-ground pool with attached deck has been meticulously maintained with weekly professional pool service, creating an ideal space for summer entertaining, weekend relaxation, or cooling off after a long day. The expansive acre lot provides endless possibilities with room to garden, play, or simply enjoy wide-open space. A chicken coop adds charm and functionality for those seeking a touch of country living, while the storage shed offers additional space for tools, hobbies, or equipment. With modern updates, thoughtful features, and plenty of outdoor amenities, this property delivers peaceful country-style living while still offering convenient access to nearby shopping, dining, and commuting routes.

17. 2022-08-03
    soldstatus
18. 2022-08-01
    soldstatus Closed 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    .Situated on a huge lot, this home will capture your attention and your heart. The property has been meticulously maintained and offers many upgrades including new carpet and laminate flooring, fresh paint, and quartz countertops in kitchen and bathrooms. The spacious kitchen opens up to a large living room with a big wood burning fireplace - perfect for entertaining. Lots of storage and a separate utility room.

19. 2022-07-28
    status Pending 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    .Situated on a huge lot, this home will capture your attention and your heart. The property has been meticulously maintained and offers many upgrades including new carpet and laminate flooring, fresh paint, and quartz countertops in kitchen and bathrooms. The spacious kitchen opens up to a large living room with a big wood burning fireplace - perfect for entertaining. Lots of storage and a separate utility room.

20. 2022-07-01
    historical Active Option Contract 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    .Situated on a huge lot, this home will capture your attention and your heart. The property has been meticulously maintained and offers many upgrades including new carpet and laminate flooring, fresh paint, and quartz countertops in kitchen and bathrooms. The spacious kitchen opens up to a large living room with a big wood burning fireplace - perfect for entertaining. Lots of storage and a separate utility room.

21. 2022-06-25
    price $429,000 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    .Situated on a huge lot, this home will capture your attention and your heart. The property has been meticulously maintained and offers many upgrades including new carpet and laminate flooring, fresh paint, and quartz countertops in kitchen and bathrooms. The spacious kitchen opens up to a large living room with a big wood burning fireplace - perfect for entertaining. Lots of storage and a separate utility room.

22. 2022-06-02
    listed $430,000 Active 418-char remark

    Show marketing remark (418 chars)

    .Situated on a huge lot, this home will capture your attention and your heart. The property has been meticulously maintained and offers many upgrades including new carpet and laminate flooring, fresh paint, and quartz countertops in kitchen and bathrooms. The spacious kitchen opens up to a large living room with a big wood burning fireplace - perfect for entertaining. Lots of storage and a separate utility room.

23. 2016-08-18
    soldstatus
24. 2016-08-16
    soldstatus Sold
25. 2016-06-30
    historical Active Contingent
26. 2016-06-24
    price $220,000
27. 2016-06-20
    price $225,000
28. 2016-06-09
    price $230,000
29. 2016-05-26
    listed $235,000 Active
30. 2013-10-29
    soldstatus
31. 2005-03-14
    soldstatus
32. 2004-07-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,954 · $580/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,668 · $639/mo
• Expected delta: +$714/yr (+$59/mo · 10.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,124
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,471
• − Property taxes: −$6,954
• − Insurance: −$2,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,010
• − Management: −$2,010
• − Depreciation: −$12,189
• Taxable loss: −$23,605
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,665
• After-tax cash flow: $-9,904/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Farmersville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819080
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $56,626
• Composite: 37.17/100
• National rank: #4479
• State rank: #298 of 826 in TX

Livability — Nevada

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #881
• US rank: #15880

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,284

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.09%
• Current HPI: 331.12
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+80.9% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $425,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $435,000 NTREIS
• 2022-08-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-08-01 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2022-07-28 Pending — NTREIS
• 2022-07-01 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2022-06-25 Price Changed $429,000 NTREIS
• 2022-06-02 Listed $430,000 NTREIS
• 2016-08-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-08-16 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2016-06-30 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2016-06-24 Price Changed $220,000 NTREIS
• 2016-06-20 Price Changed $225,000 NTREIS
• 2016-06-09 Price Changed $230,000 NTREIS
• 2016-05-26 Listed $235,000 NTREIS
• 2013-10-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-03-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-07-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,954 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.