1303 Poplar St · Lamar, MO 64759

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 822 sqft · Other public records · 163 Days on market

Built 1915 0.33 ac lot $103/sqft · 9% below area Est $137k · 38% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two, potentially 3, bedroom bungalow with newer York HVAC, a metal roof and several thermal vinyl windows on large lot with alley access to rear. Seller reports all new plumbing and fixtures in bathroom 4 years ago, new hot water heater less than 2 years ago and upgrades to electrical. New sewer line was put in about 7 years ago. The 22' x 28' detached 2 car garage has concrete floor and power. There is some interior painting underway. Interior photos will be coming thereafter.

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1915

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-244/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $81k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $63k (25.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $63k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#284 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lamar R-I (town): math 37% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #196 of 324 in MO (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: East Elem. (275 students, 56% FRL); Lamar Middle (math 39% / reading 37%, grade F, #211 of 391 statewide, top 55%, 266 students, 53% FRL); Lamar High (math 22% / reading 42%, grade F, #356 of 521 statewide, top 71%, 393 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6 units permitted in Barton County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Barton County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,432 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.03%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $137,381
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -38.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-15,100
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-14,943
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64759

• Home prices YoY: -10.4%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $634 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $483/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$133
• Net cashflow: $-20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $660

Max offer price $81,406

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $28	-5% $4	+0% $-20	+5% $-44	+10% $-68
Rent	-10% $-70	-5% $-45	+0% $-20	+5% $5	+10% $30
Rate	-1.0pp $22	-0.5pp $1	base $-20	+0.5pp $-42	+1.0pp $-65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
601 E 19th St Unit C-2 Lamar, MO	2.0	1.0	946	$675	$0.71	23d	1	0.54mi
601 E 19th St Unit A-4 Lamar, MO	1.0	1.0	739	$595	$0.81	23d	1	0.54mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $85,000 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $92,000 Active 160 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $92,000 Active 159 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $92,000 Active 158 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $92,000 Active 157 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $92,000 Active 155 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $92,000 Active 154 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $92,000 Active 151 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $92,000 Active 150 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $92,000 Active 149 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $92,000 Active 148 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $92,000 Active 145 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $92,000 Active 144 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $92,000 Active 143 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $92,000 Active 142 DOM
17. 2026-03-23
    price $92,000 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    Two, potentially 3, bedroom bungalow with newer York HVAC, a metal roof and several thermal vinyl windows on large lot with alley access to rear. Seller reports all new plumbing and fixtures in bathroom 4 years ago, new hot water heater less than 2 years ago and upgrades to electrical. New sewer line was put in about 7 years ago. The 22' x 28' detached 2 car garage has concrete floor and power. There is some interior painting underway. Interior photos will be coming thereafter.

18. 2026-01-21
    price $95,000 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    Two, potentially 3, bedroom bungalow with newer York HVAC, a metal roof and several thermal vinyl windows on large lot with alley access to rear. Seller reports all new plumbing and fixtures in bathroom 4 years ago, new hot water heater less than 2 years ago and upgrades to electrical. New sewer line was put in about 7 years ago. The 22' x 28' detached 2 car garage has concrete floor and power. There is some interior painting underway. Interior photos will be coming thereafter.

19. 2026-01-09
    listed $115,000 Active 482-char remark

    Show marketing remark (482 chars)

    Two, potentially 3, bedroom bungalow with newer York HVAC, a metal roof and several thermal vinyl windows on large lot with alley access to rear. Seller reports all new plumbing and fixtures in bathroom 4 years ago, new hot water heater less than 2 years ago and upgrades to electrical. New sewer line was put in about 7 years ago. The 22' x 28' detached 2 car garage has concrete floor and power. There is some interior painting underway. Interior photos will be coming thereafter.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $483 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $824 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$341/yr (+$28/mo · 70.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $7,612
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$483
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$609
• − Management: −$609
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable loss: −$1,749
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$420
• After-tax cash flow: $176/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar R-I
• NCES district ID: 2917850
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,598
• Composite: 31.12/100
• National rank: #6066
• State rank: #196 of 324 in MO

Livability — Lamar

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #284
• US rank: #13227

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing B Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lamar, MO
• Population (ZIP): 8,056

Population outlook (Barton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,977 people
• By 2030: 10,496 · -4.4%
• By 2040: 9,537 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 8,668 · -21.0%
• By 2075: 7,557 · -31.2%
• By 2100: 6,921 · -36.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 4% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Barton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.2) · D 13.6% · R 85.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.4pp toward R · 2008: -49.8pp · 2024: -72.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.2 2020: R+71.2 2016: R+70.2 2012: R+55.4 2008: R+49.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.73%
• Current HPI: 160.9202
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $92,000 OGAR
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $95,000 OGAR
• 2026-01-09 Listed $115,000 OGAR

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $483 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.