1804 S Kiesel St · Bay City, MI 48706

$112,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 788 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1880 4,791 sqft lot $143/sqft · 44% above area Est $122k · 8% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful Three Bedroom home. New flooring, Carpet, and Vinyl Fresh paint. New Hot Water Heater. Move in ready. Fenced in yard with beautiful porch overlooking Zion Luthern Park. Keits Nursery behind the house

Key facts

• Updated electrical
• Vinyl windows
• Close to riverwalk

Tags

• BONUS ROOM
• UPDATED ELECTRICAL
• UPDATED PLUMBING
• VINYL WINDOWS
• CLOSE TO DOWNTOWN
• CLOSE TO RIVERWALK

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sanitary sewer; Natural gas service
• Home design: Residential, single-story style; Originally built in 1880
• Construction: Basement foundation (Michigan basement)
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding and vinyl trim; Cement siding; Shed on the property; Road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: First-floor kitchen, approximately 12 x 12 with laminate flooring
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the first floor — each about 11 x 10 with carpeted floors; One additional room on the second floor (11 x 10) with carpeted floor
• Flooring: Carpet in bedrooms and some rooms; Laminate in living room, dining room and kitchen; Vinyl in bathroom
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor with vinyl flooring
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas fuel; Gas water heater
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; First-floor living areas
• Laundry & utility: Has a basement (Michigan-style basement)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $112k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $138 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $112k).
• Recommended offer: $111k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.5% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $778 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $96k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $110,812 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.25%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $122,327
• List price: $112,500
• Delta: -1.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35 Salzburg Rd	0.38mi	2/1.0	842 (+7%)	17mo	$143,300	$170	57
508 W Calumet St	0.35mi	2/1.0	900 (+14%)	19mo	$126,000	$140	44
304 Main St	0.74mi	2/1.0	891 (+13%)	2mo	$135,250	$152	42
406 Chandler St	0.70mi	2/1.0	832 (+6%)	20mo	$101,000	$121	42
38 Westside Saginaw Rd	0.59mi	2/1.0	890 (+13%)	18mo	$100,000	$112	36
100 E Salzburg Rd	0.71mi	2/1.0	884 (+12%)	19mo	$130,000	$147	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-9,420
• Equity at exit: $16,774

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $3,211
• Equity at exit: $9,727

Cash invested: $31,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48706

• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,174 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$590
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,828/yr
• Insurance: −$47
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $999

Max offer price $112,500

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,125
• Closing costs: $3,375
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
403 Polk St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	748	$1,000	$1.34	44d	1	0.95mi
600 18th St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	44d	1	1.14mi
605 E Jane St Bay City, MI	1.0	1.0	754	$1,650	$2.19	44d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $112,500 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $112,500 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $112,500 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $115,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $115,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    pricedays on marketlisting id $115,000 Active 1 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    price $120,000 503-char remark
16. 2026-05-03
    price $123,000 503-char remark
17. 2026-04-25
    price $124,767 503-char remark
18. 2026-04-16
    price $125,975 503-char remark
19. 2026-03-30
    listed $129,000 Active 503-char remark
20. 2022-02-25
    soldstatus $96,000
21. 2022-02-15
    soldstatus $96,000 Sold 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    Beautiful Three Bedroom home. New flooring, Carpet, and Vinyl Fresh paint. New Hot Water Heater. Move in ready. Fenced in yard with beautiful porch overlooking Zion Luthern Park. Keits Nursery behind the house

22. 2022-02-15
    soldstatus $96,000 Closed

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    Beautiful Three Bedroom home. New flooring, Carpet, and Vinyl Fresh paint. New Hot Water Heater. Move in ready. Fenced in yard with beautiful porch overlooking Zion Luthern Park. Keits Nursery behind the house

23. 2022-01-10
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    Beautiful Three Bedroom home. New flooring, Carpet, and Vinyl Fresh paint. New Hot Water Heater. Move in ready. Fenced in yard with beautiful porch overlooking Zion Luthern Park. Keits Nursery behind the house

24. 2022-01-10
    status Pending 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    Beautiful Three Bedroom home. New flooring, Carpet, and Vinyl Fresh paint. New Hot Water Heater. Move in ready. Fenced in yard with beautiful porch overlooking Zion Luthern Park. Keits Nursery behind the house

25. 2021-12-31
    listed $89,999 Active 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    Beautiful Three Bedroom home. New flooring, Carpet, and Vinyl Fresh paint. New Hot Water Heater. Move in ready. Fenced in yard with beautiful porch overlooking Zion Luthern Park. Keits Nursery behind the house

26. 2021-12-31
    listed $89,999 Active

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    Beautiful Three Bedroom home. New flooring, Carpet, and Vinyl Fresh paint. New Hot Water Heater. Move in ready. Fenced in yard with beautiful porch overlooking Zion Luthern Park. Keits Nursery behind the house

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,828 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,828 · $152/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,083
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,302
• − Property taxes: −$1,828
• − Insurance: −$562
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,127
• − Management: −$1,127
• − Depreciation: −$3,273
• Taxable loss: −$136
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$33
• After-tax cash flow: $1,688/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• City population: 25,635
• Population (ZIP): 38,756

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.29%
• Current HPI: 203.6444
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+25.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $112,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-01 Listed $115,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-29 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $120,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-03 Price Changed $123,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $124,767 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $125,975 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $129,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $96,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-15 Sold (MLS) $96,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-02-15 Sold (MLS) $96,000 REALCOMP
• 2022-01-10 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-01-10 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2021-12-31 Listed $89,999 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-12-31 Listed $89,999 REALCOMP

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,828 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.