45 Springhill Church Rd · Waynesboro, MS 39367

$77,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,016 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 119 Days on market

Built 1992 10 ac lot ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.8/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Community living

Key facts

• 10 acre lot
• Built 1992
• Listed 119 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed by Scout Land Company
• Financial info: $750 annual tax (2024)

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected; Water source: Other
• Home design: Single-family house; One story; Living area recorded as 1,400 (owner-reported)
• Construction: HardiPlank type and lap siding exterior; Raised foundation; Asphalt roof; Built year recorded from assessor
• Exterior features: Dock; 10 acres of land

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Space heater; Wood stove; Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $285 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($973 rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $71k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#140 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Wayne County School District (town): math 24% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #79 of 130 in MS (top 61%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $536 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($71k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 88% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,525 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.78%
• DSCR: 1.70
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $5,594
• Equity at exit: $11,556

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $28,197
• Equity at exit: $6,701

Cash invested: $21,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39367

• Home prices YoY: -30.7%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $973 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$406
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $541/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$204
• Net cashflow: $285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $77,500

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $329	-5% $307	+0% $285	+5% $263	+10% $241
Rent	-10% $208	-5% $247	+0% $285	+5% $324	+10% $362
Rate	-1.0pp $324	-0.5pp $305	base $285	+0.5pp $265	+1.0pp $245

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,375
• Closing costs: $2,325
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $77,500 Active 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $77,500 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $77,500 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $77,500 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $77,500 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $77,500 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $77,500 Active 111 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $77,500 Active 110 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $77,500 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    status $77,500 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-05-01
    status Pending
12. 2026-04-03
    price $77,500
13. 2026-03-16
    price $80,900
14. 2026-03-07
    price $86,900
15. 2026-01-14
    listed $97,500 Active
16. 1998-08-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $541 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $612 · $51/mo
• Expected delta: +$72/yr (+$6/mo · 13.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 88% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,681
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,341
• − Property taxes: −$541
• − Insurance: −$388
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$935
• − Management: −$935
• − Depreciation: −$2,255
• Taxable income: $2,289
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$549
• After-tax cash flow: $2,874/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wayne County School District
• NCES district ID: 2804530
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $32,885
• Composite: 21.65/100
• National rank: #8283
• State rank: #79 of 130 in MS

Livability — Waynesboro

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #14735

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,401

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,737 people
• By 2030: 19,116 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 17,754 · -10.0%
• By 2050: 16,267 · -17.6%
• By 2075: 12,858 · -34.9%
• By 2100: 10,121 · -48.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 40% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Scotch-Irish 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.7) · D 33.2% · R 65.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.0pp toward R · 2008: -21.8pp · 2024: -32.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.7 2020: R+26.6 2016: R+25.8 2012: R+19.1 2008: R+21.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -61.56%
• Current HPI: 139.1889
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-20.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $77,500 MLSU
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $80,900 MLSU
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $86,900 MLSU
• 2026-01-14 Listed $97,500 MLSU
• 1998-08-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2019): $541 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.