1648 Sword Dancer Dr · Virginia Beach, VA 23454

$270,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,544 sqft · Townhouse public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1986 2,613 sqft lot Est $340k · 21% under $37/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Priced to sell! Sold as-is, this fixer-upper is located in a sought-after neighborhood with strong sales activity and offers a great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to build equity. Home has solid potential and is ready for your vision. Conveniently located less than 5 miles to the Virginia Beach Oceanfront, NAS Oceana, and Dam Neck Annex.

Key facts

• Conveniently located
• $37 HOA
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• SOUGHT-AFTER NEIGHBORHOOD
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listed as fixer upper
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Ocean Lakes Community Association); Monthly HOA fee: $37; Community amenities: clubhouse, pool, tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: City/County water; City/County sewer; Gas water heater
• Home design: Attached townhouse; Two stories; Two living levels; Slab foundation
• Construction: Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Back and wood fencing; Storage shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Range (gas); Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom with ensuite; Bedrooms on two living levels
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Decorative fireplace; Cable hookup; Ceiling fan; Walk-in closet; One fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $200 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.5% in Virginia Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#38 in VA, #880 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, commute F.
• Va Beach City Public School District (urban): math 69% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #10 of 131 in VA (top 8%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Ocean Lakes Elementary (math 68% / reading 76%, grade A-, #273 of 1,108 statewide, top 27%, 571 students, 31% FRL); Ocean Lakes High (math 73% / reading 89%, grade A, #52 of 319 statewide, top 17%, 1,855 students, 29% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 666 units permitted in Virginia Beach city in 2024 (347 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Virginia Beach County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $190k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $252,192 (6.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.18%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $339,680
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1648 Sword Dancer Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,544 (0%)	0mo	$270,000	$175	100
1635 Mantane Arch	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,544 (0%)	4mo	$280,000	$181	94
1614 Sword Dancer Dr	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,560 (+1%)	3mo	$350,000	$224	92
776 Goodard Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,428 (-8%)	2mo	$315,000	$221	80
1531 Sword Dancer Dr	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,692 (+10%)	2mo	$345,000	$204	74
740 Quesnel Dr	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,427 (-8%)	1mo	$329,500	$231	73
1623 Slidell Ln	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,692 (+10%)	3mo	$345,000	$204	73
798 Quesnel Dr	0.25mi	3/2.5	1,696 (+10%)	1mo	$362,000	$213	71
1563 Sword Dancer Dr	0.17mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,400 (-9%)	2mo	$325,000	$232	70
1702 Purchase Arch	0.07mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,312 (-15%)	1mo	$299,900	$229	66
725 Hecate Dr	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,696 (+10%)	1mo	$372,500	$220	66
736 Hecate Dr	0.34mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,389 (-10%)	1mo	$300,000	$216	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-21,496
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $39,748
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23454

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,522 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,722/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$37
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,269

Max offer price $270,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1631 Sword Dancer Dr Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.0	1180	$2,500	$2.12	23d	1	0.10mi
1631 Sword Dancer Dr Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.0	1180	$2,500	$2.12	12d	1	0.10mi
1676 Da Vinci Dr Virginia Beach, VA	2.0	1.0	1512	$1,595	$1.05	12d	1	0.26mi
1676 Da Vinci Dr Virginia Beach, VA	2.0	1.0	1512	$1,595	$1.05	4d	1	0.26mi
792 Quesnel Dr Unit 1 Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1616	$2,295	$1.42	7d	1	0.27mi
520 Hillshire Way Virginia Beach, VA	4.0	2.5	1634	$2,900	$1.77	23d	1	0.27mi
762 Quesnel Dr Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1541	$3,600	$2.34	23d	1	0.31mi
501 Hillshire Way Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1459	$2,745	$1.88	23d	1	0.33mi
1671 Ocean Bay Dr Virginia Beach, VA	2.0	2.5	1354	$2,100	$1.55	23d	1	0.46mi
1473 Levy Ct Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1831	$2,795	$1.53	3d	1	0.61mi
1808 Haviland Dr Virginia Beach, VA	4.0	2.5	1993	$3,500	$1.76	23d	1	0.61mi
1836 Haviland Dr Virginia Beach, VA	4.0	2.5	1993	$2,895	$1.45	17d	1	0.65mi
512 Fieldstone Glen Way Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	2100	$2,550	$1.21	23d	1	0.87mi
1828 Blairmore Arch Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.0	1300	$3,000	$2.31	23d	1	0.89mi
1221 Garth Ct Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1614	$2,600	$1.61	15d	1	1.08mi
1230 Gunn Hall Dr Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1764	$2,650	$1.50	23d	1	1.24mi
1584 Boles Pl Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1902	$2,450	$1.29	4d	1	1.30mi
1149 Balch Pl Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1450	$2,495	$1.72	20d	1	1.34mi
1149 Balch Pl Virginia Beach, VA	3.0	2.5	1450	$2,495	$1.72	4d	1	1.34mi
2100 Tennyson Ct Virginia Beach, VA	4.0	2.5	2246	$2,950	$1.31	21d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $37 · $444/yr

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $270,000 Under Contract 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,722 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,722 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,263
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$2,722
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,421
• − Management: −$2,421
• − HOA: −$444
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$2,074
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$498
• After-tax cash flow: $2,899/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Va Beach City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103840
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $66,452
• Composite: 63.81/100
• National rank: #594
• State rank: #10 of 131 in VA

Livability — Virginia Beach

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #38
• US rank: #880

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Virginia Beach, VA
• County: Virginia Beach City · 448,227 people
• City population: 448,227
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 58,178
• Household income: $102,796
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1696.0

Population outlook (Virginia Beach County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 480,401 people
• By 2030: 491,221 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 504,882 · +5.1%
• By 2050: 508,847 · +5.9%
• By 2075: 504,831 · +5.1%
• By 2100: 465,867 · -3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 13% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Virginia Beach

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.7% · R 48.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -0.7pp · 2024: 2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.6 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.5 2012: R+2.5 2008: R+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -385.89%
• Current HPI: 328.85
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.62%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+42.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $270,000 REINMLS
• 2011-07-06 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,722 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.