410 Dean Ave · Tioga, ND 58852

$199,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,952 sqft · SingleFamily · 63 Days on market

Built 1956 8,226 sqft lot Est $252k · 21% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0

Key facts

• Utility room
• Spacious rec room
• Separate dining area

Tags

• SEPARATE DINING AREA
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• SPACIOUS REC ROOM
• UTILITY ROOM
• JETTED SOAKER TUB
• ATTACHED SINGLE-CAR GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage for 1 car
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Stucco exterior; Asphalt roof; Built with full basement
• Exterior features: Landscaped grounds; Rectangular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Soaking tub; Basement with concrete floor, partial finishing and storage space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-76 ($-906/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (28.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#56 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Tioga 15 (rural): math 28% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #44 of 53 in ND (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 90 units permitted in Williams County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Williams County population projected at +158% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $142,754 (28.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.62%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $251,808
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
325 Dean Ave	0.04mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,920 (-2%)	14mo	$192,000	$100	75
218 5th St NW	0.33mi	4/2.0	2,128 (+9%)	3mo	$239,900	$113	67
510 Welo St N	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,895 (-3%)	8mo	$245,000	$129	59
310 S Torning St	0.43mi	4/2.0	1,758 (-10%)	8mo	$269,000	$153	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.3% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $22,421
• Equity at exit: $93,329

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $82,504
• Equity at exit: $146,570

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58852

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,428 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $860/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $-76

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,523

Max offer price $186,556

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $38	-5% $-19	+0% $-76	+5% $-132	+10% $-189
Rent	-10% $-188	-5% $-132	+0% $-76	+5% $-19	+10% $37
Rate	-1.0pp $25	-0.5pp $-25	base $-76	+0.5pp $-127	+1.0pp $-180

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $199,900 Active 57 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,900 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,900 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    price $199,900
16. 2026-04-16
    listed $210,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $860 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,959 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,099/yr (+$92/mo · 127.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,130
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$860
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,370
• − Management: −$1,370
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$4,483
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,076
• After-tax cash flow: $169/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tioga 15
• NCES district ID: 3800039
• Math proficiency: 28% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $63,853
• Composite: 24.65/100
• National rank: #7626
• State rank: #44 of 53 in ND

Livability — Tioga

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #6781

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tioga, ND
• City population: 2,064
• Population (ZIP): 2,064

Population outlook (Williams County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,696 people
• By 2030: 84,935 · +27.3%
• By 2040: 125,867 · +88.7%
• By 2050: 171,987 · +157.9%
• By 2075: 303,258 · +354.7%
• By 2100: 433,528 · +550.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 28% Hispanic / Latino 23%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 18% Iranian 4% Danish 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 19% Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Williams

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.1) · D 15.2% · R 83.3% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.2pp toward R · 2008: -36.0pp · 2024: -68.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.1 2020: R+66.8 2016: R+66.3 2012: R+50.0 2008: R+36.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Current HPI: 107.3206
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $199,900 GNMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $210,000 GNMLS

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $860 · -24.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.