3157 Orchard Dr · North Fort Myers, FL 33917

$149,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 864 sqft · Manufactured public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1983 4,660 sqft lot $126/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Clean cute & bright home. Nicely furnished, great for a winter home. Front lanai is (9 x 16), large shed measures (9 x 15). A/C unit is 7 years old. Home has roof over. Located in a 55+ community.

Key facts

• New doors
• Modern finishes
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW DOORS
• BAMBOO FLOORING
• MODERN FINISHES
• NEWER HOT WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is rectangular on a private, paved, privately maintained road (dimensions 57 x 82 x 57 x 82); Irrigation included in assessment; Zoning: MH-1; Resale condition
• Financial info: Pets not allowed
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $126; Association covers management, laundry, recreation facilities, road maintenance, street lights, and trash; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, spa/hot tub, bocce and shuffleboard courts, billiards, library, storage, and management; Senior community; 352 units in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; Covered parking for 2 vehicles; Driveway (paved)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Cable available; Public sewer (assessment paid); Water assessment paid
• Home design: Manufactured home with aluminum siding; Single-story; Entry level 1; Faces east; West exposure on lot
• Construction: Shingle roof; Manufactured construction; Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Lanai; Porch; Screened porch; Storage; Manual shutters; Smoke detectors

Interior

• Kitchen: Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on main level; Screened porch (listed as a room type)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans; Electric cooling; Humidity control
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Cathedral ceilings; Family/dining room; Kitchen island; Living/dining room; Pantry; Tub with shower; Bar; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; High speed internet; Furnished; Double-hung windows; Shutters; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in common area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $107 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.6% in North Fort Myers — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#269 in FL, #4,409 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 841 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $149k implies a 149% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,530 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.08%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $98,496
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
974 Restful Rd	0.60mi	2/2.0	960 (+11%)	3mo	$109,575	$114	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.63% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-17,817
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-8,770
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33917

• Home prices YoY: -30.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 841
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,508 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,375/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$126
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,372

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $192	-5% $149	+0% $107	+5% $65	+10% $23
Rent	-10% $-12	-5% $48	+0% $107	+5% $167	+10% $226
Rate	-1.0pp $182	-0.5pp $145	base $107	+0.5pp $69	+1.0pp $29

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2774 Wedgewood Dr North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	880	$1,300	$1.48	24d	1	0.31mi
4120 Pine Drop Ln North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	957	$1,895	$1.98	24d	1	0.35mi
2095 Eloise Cir North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	840	$1,295	$1.54	24d	1	0.37mi
2027 Eloise Cir North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	822	$1,300	$1.58	4d	1	0.42mi
16363 Teresa Ln North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	24d	1	0.80mi
3404 Rainbow Ln North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1056	$1,800	$1.70	4d	1	0.98mi
8086 Heck Dr Unit 6 North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	600	$800	$1.33	24d	1	1.04mi
28 Nyborg Ave North Fort Myers, FL	3.0	2.0	1042	$1,299	$1.25	15d	1	1.10mi
3953 Pomodoro Cir Cape Coral, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$1,462	$1.40	15d	9	1.26mi
3940 Villa Del Mar CIR Cape Coral, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1051	$2,116	$2.01	3d	21	1.41mi
8791 Littleton Rd North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1074	$1,549	$1.44	24d	1	1.41mi
8146 Tolles Dr North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	1.0	784	$850	$1.08	24d	1	1.45mi
2211 Cantor Ln North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	672	$850	$1.26	3d	1	1.48mi
947 Strongbox Ln North Fort Myers, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	24d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $126 · $1,512/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   listed $149,000 Active
3. 2007-07-31
   soldstatus $59,800
4. 2007-07-27
   soldstatus $59,750 202-char remark

   Show marketing remark (202 chars)

   Clean cute & bright home. Nicely furnished, great for a winter home. Front lanai is (9 x 16), large shed measures (9 x 15). A/C unit is 7 years old. Home has roof over. Located in a 55+ community.

5. 2007-07-09
   price $72,000 202-char remark

   Show marketing remark (202 chars)

   Clean cute & bright home. Nicely furnished, great for a winter home. Front lanai is (9 x 16), large shed measures (9 x 15). A/C unit is 7 years old. Home has roof over. Located in a 55+ community.

6. 1989-03-01
   soldstatus $39,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,375 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,375 · $115/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,095
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$1,375
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,448
• − Management: −$1,448
• − HOA: −$1,512
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$1,113
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$267
• After-tax cash flow: $1,554/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Fort Myers

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #269
• US rank: #4409

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Fort Myers, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 57,035
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,380
• Household income: $55,000
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 775.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.28%
• Current HPI: 282.2895
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.63%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+282.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — FORTMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $149,000 FORTMLS
• 2007-07-31 Sold (Public Records) $59,800 Public Records
• 2007-07-27 Sold (MLS) $59,750 FORTMLS
• 2007-07-09 Price Changed $72,000 FORTMLS
• 1989-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,375 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.