930 Bright Lotus Ln · Rosharon, TX 77583

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,429 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 114 Days on market

Built 2020 Fair condition 6,647 sqft lot 2-car garage $171/sqft · 7% below area Est $263k · 7% under $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * NOW-05/31/2020 RECEIVE REFRIGERATOR, WASHER, DRYER, GARAGE DOOR OPENER & BLINDS * * D. R. Horton Homes presents the Bellvue Plan by Express Homes! Stunning One Story Ranch Home situated on Lush Landscaped Lot! Covered Front Porch Entry, Upgraded Coach Lighting welcoming you home! High Ceilings, Beautiful Vinyl Wood Like Floors & Recessed Lighting Throughout & more! Beautiful Open Floor Plan! Huge Family Room that opens to your Covered Rear Patio & flows gracefully into your Casual Dining Area & Gourmet Kitchen w/ Gorgeous Granite Counters, Tile Back-splash, Tall Cabinets that surround you, Large Working & Eat-in Island, Frigidaire Stainless Appliances & more! Huge Master with Luxurious Bathroom & features His & Her Sink Private Sink Vanity, Massive Shower(room for 2) & Walk-in-Closet! 2 Secondary Bedrooms & 1 Full Bath! Standard Energy Features: HERS Energy Rated, Tank-less Water Heater, & more! No Flooding! Amenity Center w/ Playground, Splash Pad & Walking Trails! Call us today!

Key facts

• 6,647 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2020

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-199 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#701 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Heritage Rose El (math 29% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 1,209 students, 83% FRL); Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 35% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1736 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 60d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask is 92353% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $209,907 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.48%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $262,881
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -6.80%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8223 Hush Heights Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+9%)	6mo	$230,000	$147	69
810 Orchard Vale Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,582 (+11%)	1mo	$306,240	$194	65
706 Zinnia Ct	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,338 (-6%)	6mo	$234,999	$176	63
8743 Mallow Rose Way	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,582 (+11%)	3mo	$298,990	$189	58
7923 Suffolk Valley Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,297 (-9%)	1mo	$244,990	$189	57
626 Urban Way	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,606 (+12%)	5mo	$280,000	$174	50
7834 Golden Rubia Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,297 (-9%)	3mo	$250,000	$193	50
9015 Rose Water Trl	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+12%)	4mo	$309,490	$194	46
1222 Sandy Shore Ln	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+12%)	5mo	$309,990	$194	44
1607 Knox Hill Path	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+12%)	3mo	$299,990	$188	44
9118 Sunset Marina Way	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+12%)	6mo	$309,490	$194	44
1402 Angelfish Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,595 (+12%)	6mo	$314,490	$197	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-57,954
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-88,551
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 28 active · 27 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.8 mo (17%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $279,495 ($182/sqft)
• Median days on market: 52 d
• This list price: 4% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1736
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,328 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$605 /mo · $7,262/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $-199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,580

Max offer price $209,907

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-60	-5% $-129	+0% $-199	+5% $-268	+10% $-337
Rent	-10% $-383	-5% $-291	+0% $-199	+5% $-107	+10% $-15
Rate	-1.0pp $-75	-0.5pp $-136	base $-199	+0.5pp $-262	+1.0pp $-327

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8419 Ideal Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,125	$1.16	24d	1	0.19mi
8310 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,300	$1.25	139d	1	0.35mi
8219 House Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,970	$1.56	118d	1	0.36mi
8102 Rose Petals Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,830	$1.54	59d	1	0.45mi
8102 Buck Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$2,100	$1.49	139d	1	0.47mi
423 Ashley Falls Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,879	$1.37	4d	1	0.67mi
407 Ashley Falls Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1704	$2,195	$1.29	64d	1	0.70mi
7731 Suffolk Valley Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1835	$2,500	$1.36	11d	1	0.73mi
1123 Diamond Drape Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,000	$1.08	108d	1	1.06mi
1214 Emerald Stone Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$1,980	$1.07	18d	1	1.16mi
9207 Penfield Dr Arcola, TX	3.0	2.5	1866	$2,051	$1.10	28d	1	1.24mi
9806 Steelknot Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,400	$1.01	45d	1	1.43mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association (Spectrum) with annual fee of $550

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2020Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick constructionComposition roof
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveGarbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 15x15)Bedroom on the second floor (approx. 12x15)Bedroom on the third floor (approx. 12x15)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowave

HOA detail $46/mo · $552/yr

• Likely covers: water

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $245,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $245,000 Active 113 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $245,000 Active 112 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $245,000 Active 111 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $245,000 Active 110 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $245,000 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 107 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 106 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $245,000 Active 105 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $245,000 Active 104 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $245,000 Active 103 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $245,000 Active 102 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $245,000 Active 101 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $245,000 Active 95 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $245,000 Active 94 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 90 DOM
18. 2026-08-30
    days on market $245,000 Active 89 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $245,000 Active 88 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    pricedays on market $245,000 Active 87 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $255,000 Active 86 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $255,000 Active 84 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $255,000 Active 83 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $255,000 Active 82 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $255,000 Active 81 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $255,000 Active 80 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $255,000 Active 79 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $255,000 Active 78 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $255,000 Active 77 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $255,000 Active 76 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $255,000 Active 75 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $255,000 Active 74 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $255,000 Active 73 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $255,000 Active 72 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $255,000 Active 71 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $255,000 Active 70 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $255,000 Active 69 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $255,000 Active 68 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $255,000 Active 67 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $255,000 Active 65 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $255,000 Active 64 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $255,000 Active 63 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $255,000 Active 62 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $255,000 Active 59 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $255,000 Active 57 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $255,000 Active 56 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $255,000 Active 54 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $255,000 Active 52 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $255,000 Active 51 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $255,000 Active 50 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,262 · $605/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,262 · $605/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,940
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$7,262
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,235
• − Management: −$2,235
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$6,420
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,541
• After-tax cash flow: $-843/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,145–$21,435 screening

The home is in fair condition with some minor repairs needed, particularly in painting. Fresh paint and a clean HVAC system can significantly enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor paint — Paint appears slightly worn
• Unknown HVAC/mechanical — No photos of HVAC/mechanical systems

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both HVAC system — A clean and efficient HVAC system improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 37/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Heritage Rose El F TX #2,706/4,322 Nat'l #28,012/41,679 Middle Ronald Thornton Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Almeta Crawford H S

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Rosharon

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #701
• US rank: #13120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Brazoria County · 1,004,526 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association (Spectrum) with annual fee of $550

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertyBuilt in 2020Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick constructionComposition roof
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherGas ovenGas rangeMicrowaveGarbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 15x15)Bedroom on the second floor (approx. 12x15)Bedroom on the third floor (approx. 12x15)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: DishwasherDisposalGas ovenGas rangeMicrowave

Price history

+27.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-02 Listed $265 HARMLS
• 2020-07-06 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-06-02 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-05-24 Listed $207,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+58.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,262 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.