176 Empire Dr · Fortuna, CA 95540

$95,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,265 sqft · Manufactured · 105 Days on market

Built 1984

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

OPEN HOUSE SATURDAY 2-4PM / 6-20-26!! See you there!! Well-maintained home in a desirable senior park. This spacious 2-bed, 2-bath home features an open floor plan with a large living room, dining area, and generous kitchen with ample cabinetry and a breakfast nook. Sunroom/family room offers abundant natural light--ideal for reading or hobbies. Primary bedroom includes an extended closet and en-suite bath with walk-in shower. Laundry room with new forced-air unit. Additional highlights include a new roof and water heater in 2024, low-maintenance landscaping, carport, and 8' x 14' storage shed. Move-in-Ready!!!

Key facts

• Breakfast nook
• Open floor plan
• Generous kitchen

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• GENEROUS KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST NOOK
• SUNROOM
• NATURAL LIGHT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 220-volt electric with circuit breakers; Underground utilities; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected (available); Phone available
• Home design: Single Family Residence; Residential property
• Construction: Shingle roof; Mobile home make: Manor, model 1514; Located in park: Royal Crest
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; Level lot; Concrete and paved road access; Insulation (energy efficient)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Range; Refrigerator; Range hood
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Breakfast bar
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $96k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $611 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $96k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 2.4% in Fortuna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#246 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, commute A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Fortuna Union High (town): math 17% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #350 of 517 in CA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fortuna Union High (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #826 of 1,170 statewide, top 80%, 830 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Humboldt County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $660 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Humboldt County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $86,905 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.40%
• DSCR: 2.22
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $23,399
• Equity at exit: $14,239

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.63×
• Total profit: $70,389
• Equity at exit: $8,257

Cash invested: $26,740 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95540

• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,529 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$501
• Tax from tax record: −$57 /mo · $678/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$321
• Net cashflow: $611

Break-even live

Break-even rent $756

Max offer price $95,500

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,875
• Closing costs: $2,865
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   remarks 620-char remark
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $95,500 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,500 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,500 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,500 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,500 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,500 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   remarks 599-char remark
9. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $95,500 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $103,900 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $103,900 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $103,900 Active 93 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $103,900 Active 92 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $103,900 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $103,900 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $103,900 Active 87 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $103,900 Active 86 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $103,900 Active 85 DOM
19. 2026-03-06
    listed $103,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $678 · $57/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $726 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$47/yr (+$4/mo · 7.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥84°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,345
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,349
• − Property taxes: −$678
• − Insurance: −$478
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,468
• − Management: −$1,468
• − Depreciation: −$2,778
• Taxable income: $6,127
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,470
• After-tax cash flow: $5,857/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fortuna Union High
• NCES district ID: 0614190
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $41,411
• Composite: 25.69/100
• National rank: #7386
• State rank: #350 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fortuna

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #246
• US rank: #8234

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment D+ Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fortuna, CA
• City population: 14,641
• Population (ZIP): 14,641

Population outlook (Humboldt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 135,550 people
• By 2030: 134,798 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 132,222 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 130,850 · -3.5%
• By 2075: 128,656 · -5.1%
• By 2100: 120,238 · -11.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 12% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Humboldt

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.4) · D 62.0% · R 33.6% · Other 4.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 28.2pp · 2024: 28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.4 2020: D+33.4 2016: D+25.9 2012: D+26.2 2008: D+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -232.72%
• Current HPI: 236.0203
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $103,900 HAR

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $678 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.