3221 Bancroft Dr #25 · Spring Valley, CA 91977

$159,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 700 sqft · Manufactured · 62 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition Est $117k · 37% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 3221 Bancroft Dr, Space 25 in the heart of Spring Valley! This beautifully maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath home offers approximately 700 sq ft of comfortable and affordable living in a well-established community. Featuring a bright and open floor plan, the home is filled with natural light and designed for both functionality and style. The spacious living area flows seamlessly into the kitchen, which offers ample cabinetry and counter space—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. Both bedrooms are well-sized, providing comfort and privacy, while the layout maximizes every square foot. Enjoy the convenience of in-unit laundry, dedicated parking, and access to community am

Key facts

• Community amenities
• In unit laundry
• Outdoor space

Tags

• IN UNIT LAUNDRY
• DEDICATED PARKING
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease in place with monthly fee ($985)

Exterior

• Parking: Located in Bancroft Palms park
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home (mobile home remains); Single-story; Front entry
• Construction: 56 ft wide by 14 ft long mobile home; Year built per assessor
• Exterior features: Community pool; Street lighting

Interior

• Kitchen: 6-burner stove; Microwave; Refrigerator; Appliances included
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms located on the downstairs/main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central cooling
• Interior features: Front entry; One-level home; All bedrooms on ground level; Central cooling; Has view
• Laundry & utility: Has laundry; Gas dryer hookup; Gas and electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $550 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 2.9% in Spring Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#627 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, employment A, housing B+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• La Mesa-Spring Valley (suburban): math 41% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #478 of 1,400 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 160 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,399 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.72%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $116,900
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3221 Bancroft Dr	0.09mi	2/1.0	600 (-14%)	11mo	$100,000	$167	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $4,726
• Equity at exit: $23,856

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.72×
• Total profit: $32,098
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 91977

• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,095 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $550

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,400

Max offer price $159,999

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $660	-5% $605	+0% $550	+5% $494	+10% $439
Rent	-10% $384	-5% $467	+0% $550	+5% $632	+10% $715
Rate	-1.0pp $630	-0.5pp $590	base $550	+0.5pp $508	+1.0pp $466

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9116 Lamar St Spring Valley, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$1,995	$3.99	0d	1	0.10mi
9116 Lamar St Unit 9116 Spring Valley, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$2,195	$4.39	23d	1	0.10mi
3540 Bancroft Dr Unit A Spring Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,795	$2.56	23d	1	0.29mi
3532 Bancroft Dr Unit A Spring Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,895	$2.71	0d	1	0.29mi
3542 Bancroft Dr Unit A Spring Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,795	$2.56	0d	1	0.29mi
8914 Troy St Spring Valley, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$1,822	$3.65	0d	2	0.34mi
3567 Hartzel Dr Spring Valley, CA	1.0	1.0	400	$1,800	$4.50	23d	1	0.36mi
3567 Hartzel Dr Spring Valley, CA	1.0	1.0	400	$1,800	$4.50	0d	1	0.36mi
3530 Helix St Unit 8 Spring Valley, CA	1.0	1.0	450	$1,695	$3.77	0d	1	0.41mi
9721 Dale Ave Unit 1 Spring Valley, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,500	$2.50	3d	1	0.98mi
4201 Spring St La Mesa, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,895	$2.92	0d	1	1.10mi
3038 Washington St Lemon Grove, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,700	$3.86	3d	1	1.15mi
4210 Spring St La Mesa, CA	1.0	1.0	655	$2,510	$3.83	0d	3	1.16mi
9860 Dale Ave Spring Valley, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	787	$2,495	$3.17	0d	2	1.18mi
8058 Golden Ave Unit F Lemon Grove, CA	1.0	1.0	550	$1,640	$2.98	11d	1	1.25mi
4242 Spring St La Mesa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$2,745	$3.05	0d	4	1.26mi
8110 Lemon Grove Way Unit 8110-7 Lemon Grove, CA	2.0	1.5	700	$2,295	$3.28	3d	1	1.26mi
4350 Palm Ave La Mesa, CA	1.0	1.0	605	$2,345	$3.88	0d	2	1.34mi
4341 Spring St La Mesa, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	712	$2,391	$3.36	0d	7	1.35mi
4032 N Bonita St Spring Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,975	$2.82	0d	1	1.35mi
4032 N Bonita St Unit 4032-1 Spring Valley, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,995	$2.85	9d	1	1.35mi
7950 Broadway Lemon Grove, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	811	$3,205	$3.95	3d	4	1.39mi
3772 B Unit B Spring Valley, CA	1.0	1.0	660	$2,395	$3.63	4d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $159,999 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,999 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,999 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,999 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,999 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,999 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,999 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,999 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,999 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $159,999 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,999 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,999 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,999 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,999 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-04-20
    listed $159,999 Active
16. 2026-01-16
    historical
17. 2025-10-16
    price $189,900
18. 2025-09-25
    price $194,000
19. 2025-08-28
    listed $199,000 Active
20. 2025-07-24
    historical
21. 2025-07-05
    listed $149,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,143
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,011
• − Management: −$2,011
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable income: $4,303
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,033
• After-tax cash flow: $5,561/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bath home in Spring Valley offers a bright and open floor plan with modern updates and a good condition score. It is ready for a new owner or renter to move in and enjoy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Replace the ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Improves energy efficiency and adds a modern touch.
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and can attract tech-savvy buyers/renters.
• Both Add a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Install a smart lock — Enhances security and can attract tech-savvy buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Replace the ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Improves energy efficiency and adds a modern touch. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and can attract tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Add a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install a smart lock — Enhances security and can attract tech-savvy buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Mesa-Spring Valley
• NCES district ID: 0620250
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $61,742
• Composite: 43.53/100
• National rank: #6442
• State rank: #478 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Spring Valley

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #627
• US rank: #19882

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring Valley, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 61,064
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 61,064
• Household income: $99,657
• Rent vs Own: 36.2% rent · 63.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2007.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 29% Two or more races 19% Black 12% Asian 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 32% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -697.99%
• Current HPI: 381.66
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.88%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+6.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $159,999 CRMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $189,900 SDMLS
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $194,000 SDMLS
• 2025-08-28 Listed $199,000 SDMLS
• 2025-07-24 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-07-05 Listed $149,999 CRMLS