2581 SW Pontiac Pl · Palm City, FL 34997

$141,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Manufactured public records · 179 Days on market

Built 1985 5,488 sqft lot $136/sqft · 8% above area Est $131k · 8% over $169/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this pet friendly light & bright remodeled 2bd/2ba mfg. home in vibrant St Lucie Falls. Low HOA fee, you own the land. Skip the bank with owner financing available. Purchase would be subject to lease. Great opportunity to own a property with a great tenant already in place. Your updated kitchen offers a kitchen nook for eating, and is open to your living room. The nicely sized bedrooms with semi-updated bathrooms give you plenty of vanity space. Inside utility room with laundry tub opens to an extra room for storage, workshop, craft space. Your front screen porch offers a relaxing spot for morning coffee or refreshing solitude at the end of the day. This active retirement community offers two clubhouses, heated pools, billiards, one of which is on Pontiac. City water/sewer. Close to shopping, restaurants, doctors, and I-95.Background check and application plus interview required. 2 pets allowed.

Key facts

• Heated pools
• Remodeled
• Two clubhouses

Tags

• REMODELED
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• FRONT SCREEN PORCH
• TWO CLUBHOUSES
• HEATED POOLS
• CITY WATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $141k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $428 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $141k).
• Recommended offer: $124k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 2.6% in Palm City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#140 in FL, #2,113 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 588 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $975 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.7% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 179 days — a 12% lower offer ($124k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 16 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $124,080 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 179 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.01%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $131,000
• List price: $141,000
• Delta: 7.63%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2596 SW Olds Pl	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,090 (+5%)	12mo	$204,000	$187	80
2554 SW Olds Pl	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,126 (+8%)	11mo	$160,000	$142	75
2671 SW Versailles Ter	0.20mi	2/2.0	948 (-9%)	3mo	$180,000	$190	73
2745 SW Toronado Trl	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,142 (+10%)	2mo	$131,000	$115	73
9353 SW Fleetwood Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+11%)	10mo	$115,000	$100	66
8921 SW Chevy Cir	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-4%)	19mo	$249,900	$250	63
9273 SW Mary Dr	0.72mi	2/2.0	980 (-6%)	5mo	$89,000	$91	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $3,950
• Equity at exit: $21,024

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $36,647
• Equity at exit: $12,191

Cash invested: $39,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34997

• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 588
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,895 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$739
• Tax from tax record: −$102 /mo · $1,220/yr
• Insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$169
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $428

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,353

Max offer price $141,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,250
• Closing costs: $4,230
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $169 · $2,028/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerpool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $141,000 Active 179 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $141,000 Active 178 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $141,000 Active 177 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $141,000 Active 176 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $141,000 Active 174 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $141,000 Active 173 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $151,000 Active 171 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $151,000 Active 170 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $151,000 Active 169 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $151,000 Active 168 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $151,000 Active 164 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $151,000 Active 163 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $151,000 Active 162 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $151,000 Active 161 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $151,000 Active 160 DOM
16. 2025-12-21
    listed $151,000 Active 923-char remark

    Show marketing remark (923 chars)

    Discover this pet friendly light & bright remodeled 2bd/2ba mfg. home in vibrant St Lucie Falls. Low HOA fee, you own the land. Skip the bank with owner financing available. Purchase would be subject to lease. Great opportunity to own a property with a great tenant already in place. Your updated kitchen offers a kitchen nook for eating, and is open to your living room. The nicely sized bedrooms with semi-updated bathrooms give you plenty of vanity space. Inside utility room with laundry tub opens to an extra room for storage, workshop, craft space. Your front screen porch offers a relaxing spot for morning coffee or refreshing solitude at the end of the day. This active retirement community offers two clubhouses, heated pools, billiards, one of which is on Pontiac. City water/sewer. Close to shopping, restaurants, doctors, and I-95.Background check and application plus interview required. 2 pets allowed.

17. 2025-10-08
    soldstatus $130,000
18. 2025-10-03
    soldstatus $130,000 Closed 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    Motivated Seller!! 2 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom, 1040 sq ft under air in the highly sought-after community of St. Lucie Falls. LOW HOA fee of $164 per month includes cable, two pools, two clubhouses, tennis/pickleball courts, bocce ball, billiards, and a workout room.

19. 2025-09-19
    historical Active Under Contract 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    Motivated Seller!! 2 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom, 1040 sq ft under air in the highly sought-after community of St. Lucie Falls. LOW HOA fee of $164 per month includes cable, two pools, two clubhouses, tennis/pickleball courts, bocce ball, billiards, and a workout room.

20. 2025-08-29
    status Active 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    Motivated Seller!! 2 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom, 1040 sq ft under air in the highly sought-after community of St. Lucie Falls. LOW HOA fee of $164 per month includes cable, two pools, two clubhouses, tennis/pickleball courts, bocce ball, billiards, and a workout room.

21. 2025-08-28
    historical 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    Motivated Seller!! 2 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom, 1040 sq ft under air in the highly sought-after community of St. Lucie Falls. LOW HOA fee of $164 per month includes cable, two pools, two clubhouses, tennis/pickleball courts, bocce ball, billiards, and a workout room.

22. 2025-03-28
    listed $150,000 Active 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    Motivated Seller!! 2 Bedroom, 2 Bathroom, 1040 sq ft under air in the highly sought-after community of St. Lucie Falls. LOW HOA fee of $164 per month includes cable, two pools, two clubhouses, tennis/pickleball courts, bocce ball, billiards, and a workout room.

23. 2021-08-27
    soldstatus $115,000 Closed
24. 2021-08-27
    soldstatus $115,000
25. 2021-08-16
    status Pending
26. 2021-07-09
    price $125,000
27. 2021-07-09
    status Active
28. 2021-05-13
    historical
29. 2021-05-02
    status Pending
30. 2021-04-06
    price $120,000
31. 2021-02-19
    status Active
32. 2020-12-18
    historical Contingent
33. 2020-12-16
    status Active
34. 2020-10-08
    historical Active Under Contract
35. 2020-09-04
    status Active
36. 2020-08-31
    status Pending
37. 2020-07-23
    listed $125,000 Active
38. 2019-07-02
    soldstatus $44,000 Closed
39. 2019-05-22
    status Pending
40. 2019-05-14
    listed $39,900 Active
41. 2019-04-19
    historical
42. 2019-03-21
    price $59,900
43. 2019-03-08
    listed $73,000 Active
44. 2019-03-05
    historical
45. 2019-01-11
    listed $84,900 Active
46. 2015-11-23
    historical
47. 2015-11-13
    listed $49,900 Active
48. 2015-10-11
    historical
49. 2015-09-18
    price $49,900
50. 2015-09-11
    listed $59,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,220 · $102/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,220 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,737
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,898
• − Property taxes: −$1,220
• − Insurance: −$705
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,819
• − Management: −$1,819
• − HOA: −$2,028
• − Depreciation: −$4,102
• Taxable income: $3,146
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$755
• After-tax cash flow: $4,381/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Martin
• NCES district ID: 1201290
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,482
• Composite: 45.1/100
• National rank: #2690
• State rank: #24 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm City

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #2113

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Martin County · 165,223 people
• City population: 30,592
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,075
• Household income: $78,136
• Rent vs Own: 19.1% rent · 80.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1323.0

Population outlook (Martin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 172,383 people
• By 2030: 180,192 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 194,114 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 204,992 · +18.9%
• By 2075: 229,641 · +33.2%
• By 2100: 232,146 · +34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Martin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.1% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.9 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -319.78%
• Current HPI: 336.7717
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.71%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+820.7% since first listed

43 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-21 Listed $151,000 MCRTC
• 2025-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2025-10-03 Sold (MLS) $130,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-09-19 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2025-08-29 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2025-08-28 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2025-03-28 Listed $150,000 Beaches MLS
• 2021-08-27 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-27 Sold (MLS) $115,000 Beaches MLS
• 2021-08-16 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2021-07-09 Price Changed $125,000 Beaches MLS
• 2021-07-09 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2021-05-13 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2021-05-02 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2021-04-06 Price Changed $120,000 Beaches MLS
• 2021-02-19 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2020-12-18 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2020-12-16 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2020-10-08 Contingent — Beaches MLS
• 2020-09-04 Relisted — Beaches MLS
• 2020-08-31 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2020-07-23 Listed $125,000 Beaches MLS
• 2019-07-02 Sold (MLS) $44,000 Beaches MLS
• 2019-05-22 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2019-05-14 Listed $39,900 Beaches MLS
• 2019-04-19 Listing Removed — MCRTC
• 2019-03-21 Price Changed $59,900 MCRTC
• 2019-03-08 Listed $73,000 MCRTC
• 2019-03-05 Listing Removed — MCRTC
• 2019-01-11 Listed $84,900 MCRTC
• 2015-11-23 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2015-11-13 Listed $49,900 Beaches MLS
• 2015-10-11 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2015-09-18 Price Changed $49,900 Beaches MLS
• 2015-09-11 Listed $59,000 Beaches MLS
• 2015-08-04 Listing Removed — Beaches MLS
• 2015-02-19 Price Changed $49,900 Beaches MLS
• 2014-08-13 Listed $59,900 Beaches MLS
• 2006-03-09 Listing Removed — MCRTC
• 2005-09-09 Listed $124,900 MCRTC
• 1998-11-08 Listing Removed — MCRTC
• 1998-05-08 Listed $58,900 MCRTC
• 1984-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $16,400 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,220 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.