14352 W Pine Heart Dr · Conroe, TX 77302

$259,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,928 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 181 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition 6,581 sqft lot $135/sqft · 32% below area Est $379k · 31% under · waterfront $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gorgeous LAKEFRONT property! Thoughtful design meets everyday comfort in this 4-bedroom home that offers a flexible floorplan, with the primary suite tucked away for privacy, and a front bedroom that could be the perfect home office or home gym. The open-concept living areas flow seamlessly, featuring a spacious island kitchen with quartz countertops that overlook the dining and family rooms. Step outside and enjoy a fabulous water view of the scenic 6-acre neighborhood lake! The playground and splash pad are conveniently located just across the street. This home boasts a RADIANT ATTIC BARRIER, PEX PIPING, SPRINKLER SYSTEM, TANKLESS WATER HEATER, and recent updates include a 2024 ROOF and a WHOLE HOUSE WATER SOFTENER SYSTEM, providing peace of mind for years to come. Whether relaxing indoors or enjoying the community amenities, this home blends style, function, and location in one beautiful package!

Key facts

• Lakefront property
• Splash pad
• Flexible floorplan

Tags

• LAKEFRONT PROPERTY
• FLEXIBLE FLOORPLAN
• WATER VIEW
• 6-ACRE NEIGHBORHOOD LAKE
• PLAYGROUND
• SPLASH PAD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-490/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (2.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $260k).
• Recommended offer: $229k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.4% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Milam El (math 49% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 524 students, 82% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 34% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 41% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1310 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($229k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.67%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $378,654
• List price: $259,900
• Delta: -31.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14325 Ash Tree Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,932 (+0%)	1mo	$254,900	$132	83
16976 Hazelnut Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,932 (+0%)	1mo	$279,900	$145	81
16812 Needlepoint Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,026 (+5%)	2mo	$269,765	$133	76
14305 Grey Pointe	0.65mi	4/2.5	1,981 (+3%)	2mo	$269,790	$136	61
16767 Country Roots Ave	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,034 (+6%)	2mo	$310,990	$153	59
15565 Granger Green Way	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,796 (-7%)	0mo	$277,990	$155	58
16771 Country Roots Ave	0.58mi	4/2.0	1,750 (-9%)	2mo	$279,990	$160	56
16815 Country Roots Ave	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,750 (-9%)	1mo	$269,990	$154	53
16689 Heritage Pines Ln	0.60mi	4/3.0	1,721 (-11%)	2mo	$269,990	$157	49
16792 Country Roots Ave	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,173 (+13%)	0mo	$295,425	$136	46
16697 Heritage Pines Ln	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,185 (+13%)	0mo	$274,990	$126	46
15439 Woody Haven Dr	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,210 (+15%)	0mo	$289,990	$131	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-43,593
• Equity at exit: $38,752

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-36,699
• Equity at exit: $22,471

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 102 active · 55 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.3 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $271,395 ($145/sqft)
• Median days on market: 99 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +35.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1310
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,738 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax from tax record: −$678 /mo · $8,139/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$575
• Net cashflow: $-41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,789

Max offer price $252,693

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $106	-5% $33	+0% $-41	+5% $-114	+10% $-188
Rent	-10% $-257	-5% $-149	+0% $-41	+5% $67	+10% $175
Rate	-1.0pp $90	-0.5pp $25	base $-41	+0.5pp $-108	+1.0pp $-177

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16703 Twisted Pine Dr Conroe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1671	$2,330	$1.39	0d	9	0.10mi
15271 Country West Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,350	$0.86	93d	1	1.11mi

HOA detail $54/mo · $648/yr

• Likely covers: watergym

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-05
   days on market $259,900 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-08-04
   days on market $259,900 Active 180 DOM
3. 2026-08-03
   days on market $259,900 Active 179 DOM
4. 2026-07-31
   days on market $259,900 Active 176 DOM
5. 2026-07-30
   days on market $259,900 Active 174 DOM
6. 2026-07-28
   days on market $259,900 Active 173 DOM
7. 2026-07-26
   days on market $259,900 Active 171 DOM
8. 2026-07-24
   days on market $259,900 Active 169 DOM
9. 2026-07-23
   days on market $259,900 Active 168 DOM
10. 2026-07-22
    days on market $259,900 Active 167 DOM
11. 2026-07-21
    days on market $259,900 Active 166 DOM
12. 2026-07-20
    days on market $259,900 Active 165 DOM
13. 2026-07-18
    days on market $259,900 Active 163 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $259,900 Active 162 DOM
15. 2026-07-16
    days on market $259,900 Active 161 DOM
16. 2026-07-15
    days on market $259,900 Active 160 DOM
17. 2026-07-14
    days on market $259,900 Active 159 DOM
18. 2026-07-13
    days on market $259,900 Active 158 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $259,900 Active 157 DOM
20. 2026-07-11
    days on market $259,900 Active 156 DOM
21. 2026-07-10
    days on market $259,900 Active 155 DOM
22. 2026-07-09
    days on market $259,900 Active 154 DOM
23. 2026-07-07
    days on market $259,900 Active 152 DOM
24. 2026-07-06
    days on market $259,900 Active 151 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $259,900 Active 150 DOM
26. 2026-07-05
    days on market $259,900 Active 149 DOM
27. 2026-07-03
    days on market $259,900 Active 148 DOM
28. 2026-07-02
    days on market $259,900 Active 147 DOM
29. 2026-07-01
    days on market $259,900 Active 146 DOM
30. 2026-06-30
    days on market $259,900 Active 145 DOM
31. 2026-06-29
    days on market $259,900 Active 144 DOM
32. 2026-06-28
    days on market $259,900 Active 143 DOM
33. 2026-06-27
    days on market $259,900 Active 142 DOM
34. 2026-06-26
    days on market $259,900 Active 141 DOM
35. 2026-06-24
    days on market $259,900 Active 139 DOM
36. 2026-06-22
    days on market $259,900 Active 137 DOM
37. 2026-06-21
    days on market $259,900 Active 136 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    days on market $259,900 Active 133 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $259,900 Active 132 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    days on market $259,900 Active 131 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $259,900 Active 130 DOM
42. 2026-06-13
    days on market $259,900 Active 128 DOM
43. 2026-06-09
    days on market $259,900 Active 124 DOM
44. 2026-06-08
    days on market $259,900 Active 123 DOM
45. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,900 Active 122 DOM
46. 2026-06-04
    days on market $259,900 Active 119 DOM
47. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,900 Active 118 DOM
48. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,900 Active 117 DOM
49. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,900 Active 116 DOM
50. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,900 Active 115 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,139 · $678/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,139 · $678/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,851
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$8,139
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,628
• − Management: −$2,628
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$4,611
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,107
• After-tax cash flow: $617/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,640–$28,920 screening

This lakefront home offers a good condition with recent updates and a good location. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic improvements needed to maximize its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace landscaping with low-maintenance plants — Improves curb appeal and reduces maintenance ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances comfort and marketability ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 40/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Milam El F TX #1,335/4,322 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Grangerland Int F TX #805/1,662 Nat'l #7,206/14,009 High Conroe H S F TX #767/1,632 Nat'l #7,907/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $259,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $264,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $274,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $277,700 HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $279,500 HARMLS
• 2025-11-20 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-09-30 Listed $279,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-21 Listed $294,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+31.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,139 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.