LAKEWAY Plan · Godley, TX 76044

$312,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,037 sqft · SingleFamily · 155 Days on market

Good condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Lakeway is a spacious and thoughtfully designed single-story home offering approximately 2,037 sq. ft. of living space with 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a study, and a 2-car garage. A welcoming front porch opens into a defined foyer that leads into an open-concept layout where the kitchen, dining area, and family room come together in one bright, connected living space-ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, generous counter space, a centrally located island overlooking the family room, and a walk-in pantry for added storage.

Key facts

• Defined foyer
• Open-concept layout
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• WELCOMING FRONT PORCH
• DEFINED FOYER
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GENEROUS COUNTER SPACE
• CENTRALLY LOCATED ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $312,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $379,665.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $313k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-644 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.5% in Godley — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#226 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Godley ISD (rural): math 34% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #466 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Legacy El (math 39% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 408 students, 32% FRL); Godley H S (math 27% / reading 51%, grade F, #859 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 777 students, 42% FRL).
• Market conditions: 780 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 132d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,637 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.27%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $379,665
• List price: $312,990
• Delta: -17.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 William Ln	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,078 (+2%)	5mo	$379,890	$183	78
812 Tesslynn Ave	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,078 (+2%)	6mo	$359,990	$173	75
929 Tesslynn Ave	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,974 (-3%)	4mo	$340,000	$172	70
605 E Godley Ave	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,954 (-4%)	7mo	$500,000	$256	69
928 Tesslynn Ave	0.41mi	4/2.0	2,161 (+6%)	3mo	$379,900	$176	64
920 Rodgers Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,960 (-4%)	13mo	$349,900	$179	58
205 High Ridge Ct	0.57mi	4/2.0	2,090 (+3%)	11mo	$395,000	$189	56
412 N Pearson St	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,206 (+8%)	3mo	$394,900	$179	48
517 Highview Ct	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,798 (-12%)	6mo	$335,000	$186	44
592 Highview Ct	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,843 (-10%)	4mo	$360,000	$195	44
405 W Graham St	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,764 (-13%)	1mo	$235,000	$133	38
200 High Ridge Ct	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,762 (-14%)	11mo	$369,000	$209	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-102,485
• Equity at exit: $56,609

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.33×
• Total profit: $-141,883
• Equity at exit: $32,826

Cash invested: $106,306 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 86 active · 20 under contract
• Months of supply: 30.4 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $329,495 ($173/sqft)
• Median days on market: 87 d
• This list price: 29% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +7.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76044

• Home prices YoY: -12.4%
• Active inventory: 780
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,506 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,991
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$475 /mo · $5,695/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $-644

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,321

Max offer price $286,514

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-381	-5% $-513	+0% $-644	+5% $-775	+10% $-906
Rent	-10% $-842	-5% $-743	+0% $-644	+5% $-545	+10% $-446
Rate	-1.0pp $-453	-0.5pp $-547	base $-644	+0.5pp $-742	+1.0pp $-842

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,916
• Closing costs: $11,390
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
812 Rodgers Ave Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1747	$2,600	$1.49	184d	1	0.25mi
640 The Cottages Dr Godley, TX	4.0	2.5	2291	$2,325	$1.01	80d	1	0.43mi
644 The Cottages Dr Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,995	$1.20	184d	1	0.44mi
532 Highview Ct Godley, TX	4.0	2.0	2818	$2,675	$0.95	0d	1	0.49mi
676 The Cottages Dr Godley, TX	4.0	2.5	2306	$2,450	$1.06	71d	1	0.50mi
201 Cliff Ct Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,900	$1.57	151d	1	0.52mi
1032 Fairfax Dr Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,300	$1.38	80d	1	0.87mi
226 Harp Ave Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1737	$2,375	$1.37	131d	1	0.90mi
226 Harp Ave Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1737	$2,300	$1.32	72d	1	0.90mi
1136 Country Glen Dr Godley, TX	4.0	2.5	2238	$2,800	$1.25	6d	1	1.22mi
920 Elk Ridge Run Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1683	$2,499	$1.48	152d	1	1.24mi
920 Elk Ridge Run Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1692	$2,499	$1.48	157d	1	1.24mi
13404 Balderdash Ct Godley, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	2025	$2,600	$1.28	0d	1	1.25mi
8806 County Rd 1229 Godley, TX	4.0	3.5	2711	$3,250	$1.20	146d	1	1.33mi
8324 County Road 1006 Godley, TX	3.0	2.5	2386	$2,450	$1.03	134d	1	1.37mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $310,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces2 total parking spaces
• Home design: New construction planLocated in Godley, TX
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2037

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan name: LAKEWAYActive listing

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $312,990 Active 155 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $312,990 Active 154 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $312,990 Active 153 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $312,990 Active 152 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $312,990 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $312,990 Active 149 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $312,990 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $312,990 Active 147 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $312,990 Active 146 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $312,990 Active 145 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $312,990 Active 144 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $312,990 Active 143 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $312,990 Active 142 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $312,990 Active 141 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $312,990 Active 140 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $312,990 Active 139 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $312,990 Active 138 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $312,990 Active 137 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $312,990 Active 136 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $312,990 Active 135 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $312,990 Active 134 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $312,990 Active 133 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $312,990 Active 132 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $312,990 Active 131 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $312,990 Active 130 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $312,990 Active 129 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $312,990 Active 128 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $312,990 Active 127 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $312,990 Active 126 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $312,990 Active 125 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $312,990 Active 124 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $312,990 Active 123 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $312,990 Active 122 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $312,990 Active 121 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $312,990 Active 120 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $312,990 Active 119 DOM
37. 2026-10-03
    price $312,990 Active 118 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $310,990 Active 118 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $310,990 Active 117 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $310,990 Active 116 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $310,990 Active 115 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $310,990 Active 114 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $310,990 Active 113 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $310,990 Active 112 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $310,990 Active 111 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $310,990 Active 110 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $310,990 Active 109 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $310,990 Active 108 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $310,990 Active 107 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $310,990 Active 106 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,076
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,267
• − Property taxes: −$5,695
• − Insurance: −$1,898
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,406
• − Management: −$2,406
• − Depreciation: −$11,045
• Taxable loss: −$14,641
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,514
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,211/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,185–$30,555 screening

This single-story home is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It offers a spacious and open-concept layout with modern appliances and ample storage. The home is move-in ready and has the potential for further updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the flooring in the kitchen and living areas — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can enhance convenience and energy efficiency, making the home more attractive to buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained and aesthetically pleasing landscape can significantly increase the home's curb appeal and resale value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Godley El Middle Godley Middle High Godley H S F TX #859/1,632 Nat'l #8,724/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Godley ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820960
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,332
• Composite: 32.06/100
• National rank: #5820
• State rank: #466 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Godley

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #226
• US rank: #5528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Godley, TX
• County: Johnson · 179,678 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,759
• Household income: $103,795
• Rent vs Own: 10.3% rent · 89.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11%

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Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.58%
• Current HPI: 259.1029
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $310,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces2 total parking spaces
• Home design: New construction planLocated in Godley, TX
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2037

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan name: LAKEWAYActive listing