Is LAKEWAY Plan in Godley, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.2% cap rate and $-673/mo modeled cash flow at a $310,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for LAKEWAY Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 4.2% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,476/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 30.0

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Cash flow +6.3/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Schools +3.9/10.0
Livability +3.7/5.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
1% rule +1.5/10.0
DSCR +0.6/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$310,990

LAKEWAY Plan · Godley, TX 76044

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,037 sqft · SingleFamily · 109 Days on market

Good condition Garage

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

The Lakeway is a spacious and thoughtfully designed single-story home offering approximately 2,037 sq. ft. of living space with 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a study, and a 2-car garage. A welcoming front porch opens into a defined foyer that leads into an open-concept layout where the kitchen, dining area, and family room come together in one bright, connected living space-ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, generous counter space, a centrally located island overlooking the family room, and a walk-in pantry for added storage.

Key facts

Defined foyer
Open-concept layout
2 garage spots

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $311k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-673 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (9.0% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (20.4% below list).
Recommended offer: $248k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

Location reads 73/100 on livability (#226 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
Godley ISD (rural): math 34% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #466 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Legacy El (math 39% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 408 students, 32% FRL); Godley H S (math 27% / reading 51%, grade F, #859 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 777 students, 42% FRL).
Market conditions: 725 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 89d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 77% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($283k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $247,607 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.65% ✗
Cap rate: 4.17%
Cash-on-cash: -7.58%
DSCR: 0.66
GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $380,488
List price: $310,990
Delta: -18.27%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 William Ln	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,078 (+2%)	4mo	$379,890	$183	79
812 Tesslynn Ave	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,078 (+2%)	5mo	$359,990	$173	76
929 Tesslynn Ave	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,974 (-3%)	2mo	$340,000	$172	71
605 E Godley Ave	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,954 (-4%)	6mo	$500,000	$256	70
928 Tesslynn Ave	0.41mi	4/2.0	2,161 (+6%)	2mo	$379,900	$176	65
920 Rodgers Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,960 (-4%)	11mo	$349,900	$179	60
205 High Ridge Ct	0.57mi	4/2.0	2,090 (+3%)	10mo	$395,000	$189	57
412 N Pearson St	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,206 (+8%)	2mo	$394,900	$179	49
517 Highview Ct	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,798 (-12%)	5mo	$335,000	$186	46
592 Highview Ct	0.64mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,843 (-10%)	2mo	$360,000	$195	45
500 Bruce Rd	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,977 (-3%)	12mo	$350,000	$177	42
200 High Ridge Ct	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,762 (-14%)	9mo	$369,000	$209	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -29.5%
Equity multiple: 0.02×
Total profit: $-104,506
Equity at exit: $56,732

10-year hold

IRR: -30.2%
Equity multiple: -0.37×
Total profit: $-146,074
Equity at exit: $32,898

Cash invested: $106,537 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 77 active · 17 under contract
Months of supply: 24.3 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $329,990 ($175/sqft)
Median days on market: 81 d
This list price: 25% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +7.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76044

Home prices YoY: -12.4%
Active inventory: 725
Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,476 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,995
Tax est. 1.5%: −$476 /mo · $5,707/yr
Insurance: −$159
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
Net cashflow: $-673

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,328

Max offer price $283,050

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-410	-5% $-542	+0% $-673	+5% $-805	+10% $-936
Rent	-10% $-869	-5% $-771	+0% $-673	+5% $-576	+10% $-478
Rate	-1.0pp $-482	-0.5pp $-577	base $-673	+0.5pp $-772	+1.0pp $-872

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $95,122
Closing costs: $11,415
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
812 Rodgers Ave Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1747	$2,600	$1.49	139d	1	0.25mi
640 The Cottages Dr Godley, TX	4.0	2.5	2291	$2,325	$1.01	35d	1	0.43mi
644 The Cottages Dr Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,995	$1.20	139d	1	0.44mi
676 The Cottages Dr Godley, TX	4.0	2.5	2306	$2,450	$1.06	26d	1	0.50mi
201 Cliff Ct Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,900	$1.57	106d	1	0.52mi
1032 Fairfax Dr Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$2,300	$1.38	35d	1	0.87mi
226 Harp Ave Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1737	$2,375	$1.37	86d	1	0.90mi
226 Harp Ave Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1737	$2,300	$1.32	26d	1	0.90mi
920 Elk Ridge Run Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1683	$2,499	$1.48	106d	1	1.24mi
920 Elk Ridge Run Godley, TX	3.0	2.0	1692	$2,499	$1.48	112d	1	1.24mi
13404 Balderdash Ct Godley, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	2025	$2,538	$1.25	0d	1	1.25mi
8806 County Rd 1229 Godley, TX	4.0	3.5	2711	$3,250	$1.20	100d	1	1.33mi
8324 County Road 1006 Godley, TX	3.0	2.5	2386	$2,450	$1.03	88d	1	1.37mi

Property features AI

Finance

Financial info: List price $310,990

Exterior

Parking: 2 garage spaces2 total parking spaces
Home design: New construction planLocated in Godley, TX
Exterior features: Living area approximately 2037

Interior

Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
Interior features: Plan name: LAKEWAYActive listing

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-23

days on market $310,990 Active 109 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $310,990 Active 108 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $310,990 Active 107 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $310,990 Active 106 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $310,990 Active 105 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $310,990 Active 104 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $310,990 Active 103 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $310,990 Active 102 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $310,990 Active 101 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $310,990 Active 100 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $310,990 Active 99 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $310,990 Active 98 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $310,990 Active 97 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $310,990 Active 91 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $310,990 Active 90 DOM
2026-09-02

days on market $310,990 Active 88 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $310,990 Active 86 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $310,990 Active 84 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $310,990 Active 83 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $310,990 Active 81 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $310,990 Active 80 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $310,990 Active 79 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $310,990 Active 78 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $310,990 Active 77 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $310,990 Active 76 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $310,990 Active 75 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $310,990 Active 74 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $310,990 Active 73 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $310,990 Active 72 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $310,990 Active 71 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $310,990 Active 70 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $310,990 Active 69 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $310,990 Active 68 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $310,990 Active 67 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $310,990 Active 66 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $310,990 Active 65 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $310,990 Active 64 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $310,990 Active 63 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $310,990 Active 61 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $310,990 Active 60 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $310,990 Active 59 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $310,990 Active 58 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $310,990 Active 55 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $310,990 Active 54 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $310,990 Active 53 DOM
2026-07-28

days on market $310,990 Active 52 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $310,990 Active 50 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $310,990 Active 48 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $310,990 Active 47 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $310,990 Active 46 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $29,713
− Mortgage interest: −$21,313
− Property taxes: −$5,707
− Insurance: −$1,902
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,377
− Management: −$2,377
− Depreciation: −$11,069
Taxable loss: −$15,033

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,608
After-tax cash flow: $-4,473/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,185–$30,555 screening

This single-story home is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It offers a spacious and open-concept layout with modern appliances and ample storage. The home is move-in ready and has the potential for further updates to increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Updating the flooring in the kitchen and living areas — New flooring can improve the overall look and feel of the home. ↑
Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal and functionality. ↑
Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can enhance convenience and energy efficiency, making the home more attractive to buyers and renters. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — A well-maintained and aesthetically pleasing landscape can significantly increase the home's curb appeal and resale value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Godley El Middle Godley Middle High Godley H S F TX #859/1,632 Nat'l #8,724/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Godley ISD
NCES district ID: 4820960
Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -4.00%
Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
Median HH income: $59,332
Composite: 32.06/100
National rank: #5820
State rank: #466 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Godley

Score: 73/100
State rank: #226
US rank: #5528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Godley, TX
County: Johnson · 179,678 people
Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Population (ZIP): 8,759
Household income: $103,795
Rent vs Own: 10.3% rent · 89.7% own
Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 179,678 people
By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Black 3%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -36.58%
Current HPI: 259.1029
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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