101 Jayne Ave · Patchogue, NY 11772

$535,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,356 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1888 9,148 sqft lot $395/sqft · 17% below area Est $648k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move into this old world charming Victorian house with original hardwood floors, high ceilings & large rooms. Adorable front porch. Some new Anderson windows, roof approx 10 years old, Septic tank includes an over flow. Seconds to LIRR & town. Large park-like property.

Key facts

• 9,148 sq ft lot
• Built 1888
• Listed 15 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electricity connected (PSEG); Septic tank; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Three or more levels
• Construction: Shake siding construction
• Exterior features: Shake siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; Eat-in kitchen; Formal dining room; 7 total rooms; Pull-down attic stairs
• Laundry & utility: In-home laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Unfinished basement with storage space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $535k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-463 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $453k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $352k (34.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $352k (34.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.4% in Patchogue — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#108 in NY, #1,800 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Patchogue-Medford Union Free School District (suburban): math 83% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #73 of 590 in NY (top 12%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Medford Elementary School (math 75% / reading 75%, grade A, #289 of 2,108 statewide, top 15%, 451 students, 42% FRL); South Ocean Middle School (math 75%, 599 students, 57% FRL); Patchogue-Medford High School (math 89% / reading 67%, grade A-, #577 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 2,443 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 35% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 219 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($527k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1888 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $351,696 (34.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1888 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.71%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $647,951
• List price: $535,000
• Delta: -17.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
219 North Ocean Ave	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,440 (+6%)	6mo	$545,000	$378	79
50 Jayne Ave	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+8%)	15mo	$440,000	$301	68
118 Ketcham Ave	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,424 (+5%)	2mo	$751,500	$528	66
163 Jennings Ave	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,229 (-9%)	6mo	$570,000	$464	65
301 Maple Ave	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,344 (-1%)	11mo	$590,000	$439	62
186 Falcon Ave	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,420 (+5%)	9mo	$407,500	$287	55
8 Bennett Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,285 (-5%)	13mo	$520,000	$405	53
66 Evergreen Ave	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,420 (+5%)	6mo	$550,000	$387	51
371 N Ocean Ave	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,531 (+13%)	8mo	$500,000	$327	45
28 E 6th St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-12%)	7mo	$685,000	$571	44
32 E 7th St	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,494 (+10%)	8mo	$548,000	$367	43
301 Oak St	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,256 (-7%)	10mo	$520,500	$414	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-108,922
• Equity at exit: $79,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-101,722
• Equity at exit: $46,257

Cash invested: $149,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11772

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 219
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,517 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,806
• Tax from tax record: −$213 /mo · $2,552/yr
• Insurance: −$223
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$739
• Net cashflow: $-463

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,103

Max offer price $453,240

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-160	-5% $-311	+0% $-463	+5% $-614	+10% $-766
Rent	-10% $-741	-5% $-602	+0% $-463	+5% $-324	+10% $-185
Rate	-1.0pp $-193	-0.5pp $-327	base $-463	+0.5pp $-601	+1.0pp $-742

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $133,750
• Closing costs: $16,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22 Jennings Ave Unit B Patchogue, NY	2.0	1.0	919	$3,000	$3.26	3d	1	0.31mi
34 Union Ave Patchogue, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$3,000	$3.00	7d	1	0.35mi
1 Village Green Way Patchogue, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	947	$3,809	$4.02	0d	7	0.35mi
99 Waverly Ave Patchogue, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	928	$3,710	$4.00	0d	9	0.66mi
80 Division St Unit 3B Patchogue, NY	2.0	2.0	1225	$3,500	$2.86	0d	1	0.74mi
80 Division St Unit 3A Patchogue, NY	2.0	2.0	1468	$3,850	$2.62	45d	1	0.74mi
80 Division St Unit 2B Patchogue, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$3,500	$3.18	45d	1	0.74mi
80 Division St Patchogue, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$3,100	$3.10	26d	1	0.74mi
80 Division St Unit 3G Patchogue, NY	2.0	1.0	1182	$3,700	$3.13	26d	1	0.74mi
80 Division St Unit 302 Patchogue, NY	2.0	2.0	1225	$3,500	$2.86	22d	1	0.74mi
17 Mott St Patchogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1326	$3,850	$2.90	0d	1	0.77mi
104 River Ave Patchogue, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$3,100	$2.82	0d	1	0.84mi
143 N Summit Ave Patchogue, NY	3.0	1.0	1400	$4,800	$3.43	0d	1	1.01mi
39 Laurel St Patchogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1100	$3,400	$3.09	26d	1	1.06mi
234 River Ave Patchogue, NY	2.0	1.0	687	$2,905	$4.23	0d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-15
   listed $535,000 Active 280-char remark
2. 2026-05-13
   historical $535,000 280-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,552 · $213/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,797 · $483/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,245/yr (+$270/mo · 127.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,204
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,968
• − Property taxes: −$2,552
• − Insurance: −$2,675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,376
• − Management: −$3,376
• − Depreciation: −$15,564
• Taxable loss: −$15,308
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,674
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,880/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Patchogue-Medford Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3622470
• Math proficiency: 83% ▲ 27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $75,120
• Composite: 66.81/100
• National rank: #405
• State rank: #73 of 590 in NY

Livability — Patchogue

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #108
• US rank: #1800

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute A Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Patchogue, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 45,023
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 45,023
• Household income: $105,245
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1595.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -578.02%
• Current HPI: 375.1174
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.07%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Listed $535,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Coming Soon $535,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,552 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.