Hayden Plan · Plant City, FL 33565

$389,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,605 sqft · SingleFamily · 1011 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This two-story, all concrete block constructed home has a large open-concept downstairs with a kitchen overlooking the living and dining room. The kitchen comes equipped with a refrigerator, electric range, microwave and built-in dishwasher. Our modern series includes luxury vinyl plank flooring in the main living areas, and quartz countertops throughout. The first floor also features a flex room that provides an area for work or for play, a bedroom, full bathroom, and an outdoor patio. The second floor includes an expansive Bedroom 1, three additional bedrooms that surround a second living area, a third full bathroom, and a laundry room equipped with a washer and dryer. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built. Home and community information including pricing, included features, terms, availability and amenities are subject to change and prior sale at any time without notice or obligation.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 1010 days

🏗️ New construction. The $389,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $416,836.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $389k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-306 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $373k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $326k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $326k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.3% in Plant City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#227 in FL, #3,587 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Knights Elementary School (math 52% / reading 45%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 623 students, 70% FRL); Marshall Middle Magnet School (math 28% / reading 31%, grade F, #469 of 571 statewide, top 84%, 1,089 students, 69% FRL); Plant City High School (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #312 of 667 statewide, top 48%, 2,474 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 426 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 74d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,259/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 1011 days — a 12% lower offer ($342k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $325,936 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 1011 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.14%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $416,836
• List price: $389,000
• Delta: -6.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3920 Harvest Hearth Pl	0.45mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,537 (-3%)	5mo	$454,545	$179	66
3406 Lumber Falls Dr	0.41mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,600 (-0%)	11mo	$509,000	$196	64
3516 Rosewood Ramble Ct	0.62mi	5/3.0	2,605 (0%)	9mo	$413,990	$159	64
3434 Lumber Falls Dr	0.37mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,399 (-8%)	3mo	$496,999	$207	62
3331 Ivy Hollow Dr	0.59mi	5/3.0	2,605 (0%)	14mo	$397,990	$153	61
3519 Thistle Bank Ct	0.56mi	5/3.0	2,639 (+1%)	14mo	$409,990	$155	60
3909 Harvest Hearth Pl	0.45mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,794 (+7%)	4mo	$473,490	$169	56
4005 Harvest Hearth Pl	0.49mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,794 (+7%)	6mo	$479,490	$172	53
3436 Ivy Hollow Dr	0.34mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,305 (-12%)	20mo	$345,990	$150	42
3205 Lumber Falls Dr	0.58mi	4/4.5 (-1)	2,921 (+12%)	9mo	$565,000	$193	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-86,971
• Equity at exit: $62,152

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-100,609
• Equity at exit: $36,040

Cash invested: $116,714 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 45 active · 17 under contract
• Months of supply: 54.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $434,000 ($172/sqft)
• Median days on market: 108 d
• This list price: 27% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -7.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33565

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,259 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,186
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$521 /mo · $6,253/yr
• Insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$684
• Net cashflow: $-306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,646

Max offer price $372,591

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-18	-5% $-162	+0% $-306	+5% $-450	+10% $-594
Rent	-10% $-563	-5% $-435	+0% $-306	+5% $-177	+10% $-48
Rate	-1.0pp $-96	-0.5pp $-200	base $-306	+0.5pp $-414	+1.0pp $-524

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,209
• Closing costs: $12,505
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3440 Ivy Hollow Dr Plant City, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$2,750	$1.06	73d	1	0.35mi
3809 Sunny Spring St Plant City, FL	5.0	3.0	2964	$2,800	$0.94	73d	1	0.52mi
3827 Sunny Spring St Plant City, FL	4.0	3.0	2756	$3,150	$1.14	73d	1	0.56mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $389,000 Active 1011 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   price $389,000 Active 1009 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $388,990 Active 1009 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $388,990 Active 1008 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $388,990 Active 1007 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $388,990 Active 1006 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $388,990 Active 1003 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $388,990 Active 1001 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $388,990 Active 1000 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $388,990 Active 998 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $388,990 Active 996 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $388,990 Active 995 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $388,990 Active 994 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $388,990 Active 993 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $388,990 Active 992 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $388,990 Active 989 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $388,990 Active 988 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $388,990 Active 987 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $388,990 Active 985 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $388,990 Active 984 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $388,990 Active 983 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $388,990 Active 982 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $388,990 Active 981 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $388,990 Active 979 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $388,990 Active 978 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $388,990 Active 977 DOM
27. 2026-07-04
    days on market $388,990 Active 975 DOM
28. 2026-07-02
    days on market $388,990 Active 974 DOM
29. 2026-07-01
    days on market $388,990 Active 973 DOM
30. 2026-06-30
    days on market $388,990 Active 972 DOM
31. 2026-06-29
    days on market $388,990 Active 971 DOM
32. 2026-06-28
    days on market $388,990 Active 970 DOM
33. 2026-06-27
    days on market $388,990 Active 969 DOM
34. 2026-06-26
    days on market $388,990 Active 968 DOM
35. 2026-06-24
    days on market $388,990 Active 966 DOM
36. 2026-06-22
    days on market $388,990 Active 964 DOM
37. 2026-06-21
    days on market $388,990 Active 963 DOM
38. 2026-06-18
    days on market $388,990 Active 960 DOM
39. 2026-06-17
    days on market $388,990 Active 959 DOM
40. 2026-06-16
    days on market $388,990 Active 958 DOM
41. 2026-06-15
    days on market $388,990 Active 957 DOM
42. 2026-06-13
    days on market $388,990 Active 955 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $388,990 Active 954 DOM
44. 2026-06-09
    days on market $388,990 Active 951 DOM
45. 2026-06-08
    days on market $388,990 Active 950 DOM
46. 2026-06-07
    days on market $388,990 Active 949 DOM
47. 2026-06-04
    days on market $388,990 Active 946 DOM
48. 2026-06-03
    days on market $388,990 Active 945 DOM
49. 2026-06-02
    days on market $388,990 Active 944 DOM
50. 2026-06-01
    days on market $388,990 Active 943 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,112
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,349
• − Property taxes: −$6,253
• − Insurance: −$2,084
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,129
• − Management: −$3,129
• − Depreciation: −$12,126
• Taxable loss: −$10,958
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,630
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,039/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for both resale and rental value through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both New flooring in bedrooms — Modernizes the interior and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the bathrooms and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Knights Elementary School D FL #1,152/2,144 Nat'l #14,081/41,679 Middle Marshall Middle Magnet School F FL #469/571 Nat'l #9,020/14,009 High Plant City High School F FL #312/667 Nat'l #8,724/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Plant City

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #3587

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Plant City, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,607,022 people
• City population: 68,525
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,108
• Household income: $73,414
• Rent vs Own: 9.1% rent · 90.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 19%

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Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.17%
• Current HPI: 347.2475
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-0.8% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $388,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $387,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $392,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $397,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $396,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-03 Price Changed $395,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-22 Price Changed $400,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-08 Price Changed $399,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-08 Price Changed $398,990 Zillow
• 2025-02-19 Price Changed $396,990 Zillow
• 2025-02-04 Price Changed $395,990 Zillow
• 2024-12-24 Price Changed $394,990 Zillow
• 2024-09-04 Price Changed $393,990 Zillow
• 2024-07-30 Price Changed $392,990 Zillow
• 2024-07-03 Price Changed $391,990 Zillow
• 2024-06-26 Price Changed $390,990 Zillow
• 2024-03-19 Price Changed $389,990 Zillow
• 2024-02-03 Price Changed $394,990 Zillow
• 2024-01-31 Price Changed $393,990 Zillow
• 2023-11-01 Listed $391,990 Zillow