12125 Lake Blvd Spc 4 · Redding, CA 96003

$35,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Manufactured public records · 87 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1977 Good condition $22/sqft · 68% below area Est $49k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -6.6

Listing remarks

Very clean single wide in a quiet MHP w/ clubhouse and pool. Don't miss this affordable opportunity. 2 Bedroom, 1 Bath unit. Amenities include, new LVP flooring, dual pane windows, SS refrigerator, wall mounted flat screen, window coverings, washer & dryer, backyard space and extra storage. Nice shaded setting just waiting for someone to make it their own.

Key facts

• Window coverings
• Ss refrigerator
• Washer and dryer

Tags

• NEW LVP FLOORING
• DUAL PANE WINDOWS
• SS REFRIGERATOR
• WALL MOUNTED FLAT SCREEN
• WINDOW COVERINGS
• WASHER AND DRYER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $764 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 32.5% vs local median 3.4% in Redding — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Gateway Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #355 of 517 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shasta Lake (math 27% / reading 36%, grade F, #816 of 1,571 statewide, top 52%, 616 students, 74% FRL); Central Valley High (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C-, #256 of 1,170 statewide, top 24%, 625 students, 60% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 43% at this address vs 30% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Gateway Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 511 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $32,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 93.53%
• DSCR: 5.16
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $48,800
• List price: $35,000
• Delta: -28.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12125 Lake Blvd #65	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,428 (-11%)	2mo	$78,000	$55	76
1800 Jason Way	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-10%)	2mo	$132,500	$92	56
1945 Quails Nest Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,756 (+10%)	2mo	$369,000	$210	53
4547 Hickory Trl	1.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-2%)	2mo	$130,000	$83	51
18526 Martin Way	1.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,490 (-7%)	0mo	$305,000	$205	48
3175 Pinehaven Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,924 (+20%)	1mo	$420,000	$218	45
4521 White River Dr	1.41mi	2/2.0	1,410 (-12%)	0mo	$104,000	$74	41
3318 Golden Heights Dr	1.31mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,754 (+10%)	3mo	$405,000	$231	36
2966 Quartz Hill Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,354 (-15%)	2mo	$315,500	$233	34
822 Monarch Ct	1.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,258 (-21%)	0mo	$319,000	$254	31
4518 Honeycomb Way	1.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,272 (-20%)	0mo	$278,000	$219	31
4310 Swallowtail Ct	1.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,274 (-20%)	2mo	$343,000	$269	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 97.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.79×
• Total profit: $46,927
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.32×
• Total profit: $120,732
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 0 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 0.0 mo

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 96003

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 511
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,273 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $764

Break-even live

Break-even rent $306

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 35%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $788	-5% $776	+0% $764	+5% $752	+10% $740
Rent	-10% $663	-5% $714	+0% $764	+5% $814	+10% $864
Rate	-1.0pp $781	-0.5pp $773	base $764	+0.5pp $755	+1.0pp $746

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3465 Magnums Way Apt 2 Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,775	$1.64	93d	1	0.90mi
4433 White River Dr Redding, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	93d	1	1.34mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in Park Villa mobile home park

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home)Single-story
• Construction: Aluminum sidingAluminum skirtPillar/post/pier foundationBuilt as a manufactured/mobile home
• Exterior features: Asphalt road accessPark Villa mobile home community

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalRange / OvenRefrigerator
• Flooring: VinylCarpetLaminate
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: DishwasherDisposalRange / OvenRefrigeratorNo fireplace
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $35,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $35,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $35,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $35,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $35,000 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $35,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $35,000 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $35,000 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $35,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $35,000 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $35,000 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $35,000 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $35,000 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $35,000 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $35,000 Active 66 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $35,000 Active 64 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $35,000 Active 63 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $35,000 Active 62 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    pricedays on market $35,000 Active 61 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $38,000 Active 60 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $38,000 Active 59 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $38,000 Active 58 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $38,000 Active 57 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $38,000 Active 56 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $38,000 Active 55 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $38,000 Active 54 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $38,000 Active 53 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $38,000 Active 52 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $38,000 Active 51 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $38,000 Active 50 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $38,000 Active 49 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $38,000 Active 48 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $38,000 Active 47 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $38,000 Active 46 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $38,000 Active 45 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $38,000 Active 44 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $38,000 Active 42 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $38,000 Active 40 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $38,000 Active 39 DOM
40. 2026-06-19
    days on market $38,000 Active 37 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $38,000 Active 36 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $38,000 Active 35 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $38,000 Active 34 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $38,000 Active 33 DOM
45. 2026-06-14
    days on market $38,000 Active 31 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    days on market $38,000 Active 30 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $38,000 Active 28 DOM
48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $38,000 Active 27 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $38,000 Active 26 DOM
50. 2026-06-07
    days on market $38,000 Active 25 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,276
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,222
• − Management: −$1,222
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $9,154
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,197
• After-tax cash flow: $6,969/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,000–$24,000 screening

This single-wide manufactured home is in good condition with recent updates, making it a solid investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace window coverings — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 39/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Buckeye School Of The Arts F CA #1,157/1,571 Nat'l #31,549/41,679 High Central Valley High C- CA #256/1,170 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gateway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,888
• Composite: 25.39/100
• National rank: #7465
• State rank: #355 of 517 in CA

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Redding

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Shasta County · 179,231 people
• City population: 112,523
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,923
• Household income: $72,445
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.66%
• Current HPI: 152.3069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.98%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in Park Villa mobile home park

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home)Single-story
• Construction: Aluminum sidingAluminum skirtPillar/post/pier foundationBuilt as a manufactured/mobile home
• Exterior features: Asphalt road accessPark Villa mobile home community

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalRange / OvenRefrigerator
• Flooring: VinylCarpetLaminate
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: DishwasherDisposalRange / OvenRefrigeratorNo fireplace
• Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $38,000 SAOR