12125 Lake Blvd Spc 4 · Redding, CA 96003

$38,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Manufactured public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1977 $24/sqft · 81% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Very clean single wide in a quiet MHP w/ clubhouse and pool. Don't miss this affordable opportunity. 2 Bedroom, 1 Bath unit. Amenities include, new LVP flooring, dual pane windows, SS refrigerator, wall mounted flat screen, window coverings, washer & dryer, backyard space and extra storage. Nice shaded setting just waiting for someone to make it their own.

Key facts

• Window coverings
• Ss refrigerator
• Washer and dryer

Tags

• NEW LVP FLOORING
• DUAL PANE WINDOWS
• SS REFRIGERATOR
• WALL MOUNTED FLAT SCREEN
• WINDOW COVERINGS
• WASHER AND DRYER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in Park Villa mobile home park

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Manufactured in park (mobile home); Single-story
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Aluminum skirt; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a manufactured/mobile home
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access; Park Villa mobile home community

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Range / Oven; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet; Laminate
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Range / Oven; Refrigerator; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $38k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $38k).
• Recommended offer: $37k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 39.2% vs local median 3.3% in Redding — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Gateway Unified (suburban): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #355 of 517 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 391 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $263 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $36,860 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 39.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 117.69%
• DSCR: 6.24
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $88,900
• List price: $38,000
• Delta: -57.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12125 Lake Blvd #65	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,428 (-11%)	1mo	$78,000	$55	78
1450 Calexico Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (-4%)	1mo	$60,000	$39	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.15×
• Total profit: $65,433
• Equity at exit: $5,666

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.50×
• Total profit: $164,929
• Equity at exit: $3,286

Cash invested: $10,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96003

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 391
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,653 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$199
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$48 /mo · $570/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $1,043

Break-even live

Break-even rent $332

Max offer price $38,000

Occupancy floor 32%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,500
• Closing costs: $1,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3465 Magnums Way Apt 2 Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,775	$1.64	43d	1	0.90mi
4433 White River Dr Redding, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	43d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $38,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $38,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $38,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $38,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $38,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $38,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $38,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $38,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $38,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $38,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $38,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $38,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $38,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $38,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $38,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $38,000 Active 17 DOM
17. 2026-05-13
    listed $38,000 Active 364-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,840
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,129
• − Property taxes: −$570
• − Insurance: −$190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,587
• − Management: −$1,587
• − Depreciation: −$1,105
• Taxable income: $12,671
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,041
• After-tax cash flow: $9,481/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gateway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614950
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $41,888
• Composite: 25.39/100
• National rank: #7465
• State rank: #355 of 517 in CA

Livability — Redding

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• City population: 112,523
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 44,923
• Household income: $72,445
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -181.66%
• Current HPI: 152.3069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.98%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $38,000 SAOR