9374 CR 657 · Nobleton, FL 33513

$110,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1984 9,711 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

AFFORDABLE LIVING----2 bedroom 2 bath SWMH with added on living area and bonus room. Nice corner lot with community river access.

Key facts

• No hoa restrictions
• Corner lot
• Boat ramp access

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• BOAT RAMP ACCESS
• NO HOA RESTRICTIONS
• OUTSIDE OF FLOOD ZONE
• METAL CARPORT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Residential property (manufactured home), zoning for mobile home; Lot roughly 0.23 acre (approx. 139 x 115); Private/unincorporated location
• HOA & community: No association fees or HOA; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Private community boat ramp with canal access to the Withlacoochee River; 1 well; 1 septic
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; One story; Faces south
• Construction: Metal siding and frame construction; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Screened porch; Other exterior features; Mature landscaping; Street dead-end lot; Paved road access; Unincorporated area; Asphalt road surface; Public maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances: Other
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ductless heating; Central air conditioning; Wall/window unit(s)
• Interior features: Split bedroom layout; Inside utility room
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $78 ($936/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $97k (12.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#880 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Panasoffkee Elementary School (math 62% / reading 66%, grade B, #552 of 2,144 statewide, top 26%, 584 students, 65% FRL); South Sumter High School (math 33% / reading 48%, grade F, #294 of 667 statewide, top 44%, 1,045 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($100k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $110k implies a 340% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,600 (12.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.04%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $64,847
• Equity at exit: $99,097

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.07×
• Total profit: $186,992
• Equity at exit: $213,706

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33513

• Home prices YoY: 12.8%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $966 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $749/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$203
• Net cashflow: $78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $867

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $140	-5% $109	+0% $78	+5% $47	+10% $16
Rent	-10% $2	-5% $40	+0% $78	+5% $116	+10% $154
Rate	-1.0pp $133	-0.5pp $106	base $78	+0.5pp $50	+1.0pp $21

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
28065 Freewalt St Brooksville, FL	2.0	1.0	672	$966	$1.44	0d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $110,000 Pending 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $110,000 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $110,000 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $110,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-05-20
    price $110,000
14. 2026-03-12
    status Active
15. 2026-02-01
    listed $125,000 Active
16. 2011-10-14
    soldstatus $25,000 129-char remark

    Show marketing remark (129 chars)

    AFFORDABLE LIVING----2 bedroom 2 bath SWMH with added on living area and bonus room. Nice corner lot with community river access.

17. 2011-06-25
    listed $25,000 129-char remark

    Show marketing remark (129 chars)

    AFFORDABLE LIVING----2 bedroom 2 bath SWMH with added on living area and bonus room. Nice corner lot with community river access.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $749 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $913 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$164/yr (+$14/mo · 21.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,592
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$749
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$927
• − Management: −$927
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$924
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$222
• After-tax cash flow: $1,158/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — Nobleton

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #880
• US rank: #23567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,647

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Serbian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 40.29%
• Current HPI: 354.5531
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+340.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-01 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-10-14 Sold (MLS) $25,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-06-25 Listed $25,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $749 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.