73615 Sun Valley Dr · Twentynine Palms, CA 92277

$530,000

8 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,172 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 44 Days on market

Built 1976 0.28 ac lot $167/sqft · 6% below area Est $564k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks

This 4-plex investment property offers a strong opportunity for both immediate rental income and long-term value growth. Each unit features 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, with a spacious, open floor plan designed for comfortable, modern living. The front two units have been recently renovated and are ready for new tenants, while the remaining units provide potential for upgrades and increased rental returns. Each unit is equipped with its own air conditioning system and swamp cooler, allowing residents to customize their comfort year-round. Centrally located, the property provides convenient access to local amenities, schools, shopping centers, and public transportation. On-site parking is avai

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1976

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Number of buildings: 2; Two or more common walls
• Financial info: Four total residential units; Gross scheduled income: $46,200; Gross income reported: $18,000; Total actual rent currently: $3,900; Net operating income: $33,500; Operating expenses: $15,500 (including $4,000 trash, $3,000 insurance, $1,500 water/sewer, $7,000 taxes); Rent control applies; Tenants pay gas, cable TV and electricity
• HOA & community: Rural community features

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport parking; Four carport spaces (total 4 parking spaces)
• Security: Carbon monoxide detector(s) and smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: District / public water; Septic tank sewer; Natural gas available; Electricity available; Water, gas and electric meters: four separate gas meters, four separate electric meters, one separate water meter
• Home design: Attached property with 1 story; Entry via back door; Property listed as fixer / cosmetic repairs needed; No ADU
• Construction: Frame and stucco construction; Concrete slab foundation; Built year per assessor
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; No pool; No fencing; Desert front and desert back lot characteristics; Lot in the 10,000–19,999 sq ft range; Property has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven provided in units; All four units include ranges and refrigerators
• Bedrooms: Units include two-bedroom layouts (unit-level details available)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Each unit has one full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (central furnace / forced air); Central and evaporative cooling (dual systems)
• Interior features: Tile countertops; Carbon monoxide and smoke detectors
• Laundry & utility: No onsite laundry facilities

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $530k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive. Per door: $299/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $530k).
• Recommended offer: $514k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.3% in Twentynine Palms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#622 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, employment D-.
• Morongo Unified (town): math 15% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #395 of 517 in CA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 734 active listings in the ZIP; 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,503/mo this rent would consume 108% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 1057% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $148k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($514k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $530k implies a 430% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $514,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.67%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $563,851
• List price: $530,000
• Delta: -6.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
73601 Sun Valley Dr	0.03mi	8/4.0	3,172 (0%)	0mo	$500,000	$158	98
73438 El Paseo Dr	0.23mi	8/4.0	3,190 (+1%)	13mo	$560,000	$176	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-1,806
• Equity at exit: $79,025

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $129,985
• Equity at exit: $45,825

Cash invested: $148,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92277

• Home prices YoY: -3.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 734
• Price-to-rent: 32.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,503 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,779
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,816/yr
• Insurance: −$221
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,156
• Net cashflow: $1,196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,989

Max offer price $530,000

Occupancy floor 73%

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	2	1	$5,504
Total (4 units)			$5,503

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $132,500
• Closing costs: $15,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $530,000 Active 44 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $530,000 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $530,000 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $530,000 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $530,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $530,000 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $530,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $530,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $530,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $530,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $530,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $530,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $530,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $530,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-05
    listed $530,000 Active 914-char remark
16. 2026-05-01
    historical $530,000 914-char remark
17. 2026-03-31
    historical
18. 2026-02-09
    historical $1,150
19. 2026-02-04
    listed $1,150
20. 2025-09-04
    listed $550,000 Active
21. 2025-08-22
    historical
22. 2025-02-25
    listed $550,000 Active
23. 2001-07-12
    soldstatus $100,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,816 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,028 · $336/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,212/yr (+$184/mo · 121.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $66,036
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,688
• − Property taxes: −$1,816
• − Insurance: −$2,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,283
• − Management: −$5,283
• − Depreciation: −$15,418
• Taxable income: $5,898
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,416
• After-tax cash flow: $12,935/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morongo Unified
• NCES district ID: 0625860
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $39,399
• Composite: 22.19/100
• National rank: #8156
• State rank: #395 of 517 in CA

Livability — Twentynine Palms

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #622
• US rank: #19731

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime C Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Twentynine Palms, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 26,277
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 26,277
• Household income: $60,901
• Rent vs Own: 56.7% rent · 43.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1057.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Two or more races 24% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 9% Asian 4% Pacific Islander 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.15%
• Current HPI: 380.5083
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.45%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+430.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $530,000 CRMLS
• 2026-05-01 Coming Soon $530,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2026-02-09 Rental Removed $1,150 APPFOLIO
• 2026-02-04 Listed for Rent $1,150 APPFOLIO
• 2025-09-04 Listed $550,000 CRMLS
• 2025-08-22 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-02-25 Listed $550,000 CRMLS
• 2001-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,816 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.