Is 2738 Mariposa Creek Dr in Rosharon, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 4.8% cap rate and $-316/mo modeled cash flow at a $247,499 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 2738 Mariposa Creek Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 4.8% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,480/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 40.71

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +12.9/15.0
Cash flow +7.4/30.0
1% rule +5.0/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Schools +3.9/10.0
Livability +3.2/5.0
Rent growth +2.6/5.0
DSCR +1.6/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$247,499

2738 Mariposa Creek Dr · Rosharon, TX 77583

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,750 sqft · Townhouse public records · 70 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 2,952 sqft lot 2-car garage $141/sqft · 12% below area Est $281k · 12% under $275/mo HOA · 11% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this move-in-ready Sierra Vista townhome. Ideally located near one of the community's best amenity centers on Houston's south side. Commuters will love the unbeatable location: less than 5 minutes to Highway 288, with quick access to the Texas Medical Center, and Pearland. This townhome offers an open-concept first floor designed for modern living and entertaining. The stylish kitchen features ample cabinet and pantry storage, flowing seamlessly into a spacious family room and dining area; perfect for hosting family and friends. Retreat to a private primary suite complete with dual vanities, an oversized walk-in shower, and 2 walk-in closets.

Key facts

Move-in-ready
Stylish kitchen
Spacious family room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $247k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-316 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (22.5% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $247k).
Recommended offer: $192k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

Location reads 65/100 on livability (#701 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Iowa Colony H S (792 students, 56% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents flat; 1736 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 68d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $18k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.

Recommended offer $191,736 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 1.00% ✓
Cap rate: 4.76%
Cash-on-cash: -5.47%
DSCR: 0.76
GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $281,490
List price: $247,499
Delta: -12.08%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2167 Salinas Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,728 (-1%)	4mo	$280,990	$163	65
2136 Salinas Dr	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,778 (+2%)	1mo	$278,990	$157	64
2156 Salinas Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,715 (-2%)	2mo	$227,000	$132	64
2164 Salinas Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,782 (+2%)	3mo	$286,990	$161	64
2139 Salinas Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,715 (-2%)	1mo	$261,990	$153	63
2151 Salinas Dr	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,778 (+2%)	3mo	$287,990	$162	63
2147 Salinas Dr	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,778 (+2%)	3mo	$287,990	$162	62
2227 Salinas Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,782 (+2%)	3mo	$298,990	$168	60
2168 Salinas Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,777 (+2%)	3mo	$294,990	$166	59
2148 Salinas Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,780 (+2%)	2mo	$294,990	$166	59
2159 Salinas Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,782 (+2%)	2mo	$266,990	$150	58
2131 Salinas Dr	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,782 (+2%)	2mo	$247,990	$139	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -29.5%
Equity multiple: 0.05×
Total profit: $-66,055
Equity at exit: $36,903

10-year hold

IRR: -53.2%
Equity multiple: -0.53×
Total profit: $-106,131
Equity at exit: $21,399

Cash invested: $69,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 3 active · 16 under contract
Months of supply: 0.6 mo (156%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $252,990 ($142/sqft)
Median days on market: 13 d
This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +13.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

Rents YoY: 0.4%
Active inventory: 1736
Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,480 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,298
Tax from tax record: −$599 /mo · $7,188/yr
Insurance: −$103
HOA: −$275
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
Net cashflow: $-316

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,880

Max offer price $191,736

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-176	-5% $-246	+0% $-316	+5% $-386	+10% $-456
Rent	-10% $-512	-5% $-414	+0% $-316	+5% $-218	+10% $-120
Rate	-1.0pp $-191	-0.5pp $-253	base $-316	+0.5pp $-380	+1.0pp $-445

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $61,875
Closing costs: $7,425
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10332 Ritter Run Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1641	$1,849	$1.13	19d	1	0.43mi
2314 Red Slate Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	4.0	2531	$2,850	$1.13	139d	1	0.48mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,469	$1.43	139d	7	0.55mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1751	$2,539	$1.45	0d	9	0.55mi
9901 Kilkenny St Iowa Colony, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1735	$2,150	$1.24	3d	12	0.82mi
1816 Corsica Creek Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1770	$2,412	$1.36	0d	16	0.86mi
9518 Peridot Green Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1593	$1,836	$1.15	68d	1	0.97mi
10313 Malta Trace Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1802	$2,545	$1.41	139d	1	0.98mi
2107 Golden Topaz Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,895	$1.36	5d	1	1.12mi
3410 Shockley Ln Iowa Colony, TX	3.0	3.0	2242	$2,850	$1.27	45d	1	1.21mi
9314 Eckert Rd Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	2309	$2,999	$1.30	85d	1	1.25mi
10539 Dolce Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.5	2258	$2,391	$1.06	108d	1	1.29mi
3734 Bach St Iowa Colony, TX	4.0	3.0	2258	$2,800	$1.24	38d	1	1.31mi
10327 Armstrong Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1956	$2,291	$1.17	139d	1	1.31mi
9806 Steelknot Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,400	$1.01	45d	1	1.36mi
10526 Cabot Trl Iowa Colony, TX	3.0	2.5	1927	$2,500	$1.30	54d	1	1.36mi
9207 Penfield Dr Arcola, TX	3.0	2.5	1866	$2,051	$1.10	28d	1	1.40mi
4018 Champlain Way Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.5	1897	$1,500	$0.79	103d	1	1.40mi
9423 Grand Spark Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1999	$2,600	$1.30	139d	1	1.48mi
1403 Cascade Hills Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2067	$3,450	$1.67	103d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Sierra Vista POAAnnual association fee of $3,300Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, fitness center, playground, dog park, tennis and sport courts, basketball court, pickleball, trails, maintenance of grounds, and gated community

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garageAttached garage parking
Security: Prewired for securityOwned security system
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential property2 storiesNorth-facing
Construction: Built in 2025Brick, cement siding, and stone exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
Exterior features: Backs to greenbelt/parkPond on propertySprinkler/irrigation systemPaved drivewayStorm/security shuttersAssociation pool

Interior

Kitchen: Gas cooktopElectric ovenMicrowaveDishwasherDisposalRefrigeratorKitchen islandQuartz countersWalk-in pantry
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second floor (approx. 13 x 15)Second bedroom on second floor (approx. 10 x 12)Third bedroom on second floor (approx. 10 x 11)
Flooring: CarpetPlankTileVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)Attic fan
Interior features: Double vanityKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboQuartz countersTub with showerWalk-in pantryCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatInsulated doorsLow emissivity windowsENERGY STAR qualified appliances
Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer includedLaundry in utility room

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $247,499 Active 70 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $247,499 Active 69 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $247,499 Active 68 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $247,499 Active 67 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $247,499 Active 66 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $247,499 Active 65 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $247,499 Active 64 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $247,499 Active 63 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $247,499 Active 62 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $247,499 Active 61 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $247,499 Active 60 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $247,499 Active 59 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $247,499 Active 58 DOM
2026-09-11

pricedays on market $247,499 Active 57 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $249,999 Active 51 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $249,999 Active 50 DOM
2026-09-02

days on market $249,999 Active 48 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $249,999 Active 46 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $249,999 Active 44 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $249,999 Active 43 DOM
2026-08-27

pricedays on market $249,999 Active 42 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $255,000 Active 41 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $255,000 Active 40 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $255,000 Active 39 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $255,000 Active 38 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $255,000 Active 37 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $255,000 Active 36 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $255,000 Active 35 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $255,000 Active 34 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $255,000 Active 33 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $255,000 Active 32 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $255,000 Active 31 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $255,000 Active 30 DOM
2026-08-15

price $255,000 Active 29 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $260,000 Active 29 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $260,000 Active 28 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $260,000 Active 27 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $260,000 Active 26 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $260,000 Active 25 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $260,000 Active 24 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $260,000 Active 23 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $260,000 Active 21 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $260,000 Active 20 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $260,000 Active 19 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $260,000 Active 18 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $260,000 Active 15 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $260,000 Active 13 DOM
2026-07-28

pricedays on market $260,000 Active 12 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $265,000 Active 10 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $265,000 Active 8 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $7,188 · $599/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $7,188 · $599/mo
Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $29,763
− Mortgage interest: −$13,864
− Property taxes: −$7,188
− Insurance: −$1,237
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,381
− Management: −$2,381
− HOA: −$3,300
− Depreciation: −$7,200
Taxable loss: −$7,789

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,869
After-tax cash flow: $-1,919/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,750–$26,250 screening

This modern townhome in a desirable location offers a good condition with minimal repairs needed. It has a good resale and rental value with potential for further improvements to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
Resale Kitchen appliances (if needed) — Upgrading appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
Resale Bathroom updates (if needed) — Modernizing bathrooms can increase appeal and value. ↑
Both HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and energy efficiency. ↑
Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained exterior can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

High Iowa Colony H S

Schools (NCES district)

District: Alvin ISD
NCES district ID: 4808090
Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
Median HH income: $66,740
Composite: 38.96/100
National rank: #4080
State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Rosharon

Score: 65/100
State rank: #701
US rank: #13120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 52,747
Household income: $119,287
Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 420,414 people
By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
Current HPI: 198.6559
Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

2026-07-15 Listed $265,000 HARMLS
2026-07-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-07-06 Price Changed $269,999 HARMLS
2026-06-17 Price Changed $279,900 HARMLS
2026-05-22 Listed $285,000 HARMLS
2025-06-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+413.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,188 · +413.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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