Is 2738 Mariposa Creek Dr in Rosharon, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D- with a 4.8% cap rate and $-327/mo modeled cash flow at a $260,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 2738 Mariposa Creek Dr?

The modeled cap rate is 4.8% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,556/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D- Composite 38.6

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +10.9/15.0
Cash flow +7.5/30.0
1% rule +4.8/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Schools +3.9/10.0
Livability +3.2/5.0
Rent growth +2.6/5.0
DSCR +1.6/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$260,000

2738 Mariposa Creek Dr · Rosharon, TX 77583

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,750 sqft · Townhouse public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition 2,952 sqft lot 2-car garage $149/sqft · 8% below area Est $281k · 8% under $275/mo HOA · 11% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome home to this move-in-ready Sierra Vista townhome. Ideally located near one of the community's best amenity centers on Houston's south side. Commuters will love the unbeatable location: less than 5 minutes to Highway 288, with quick access to the Texas Medical Center, and Pearland. This townhome offers an open-concept first floor designed for modern living and entertaining. The stylish kitchen features ample cabinet and pantry storage, flowing seamlessly into a spacious family room and dining area; perfect for hosting family and friends. Retreat to a private primary suite complete with dual vanities, an oversized walk-in shower, and 2 walk-in closets.

Key facts

Move-in-ready
Stylish kitchen
Spacious family room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $260k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-327 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (22.2% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (1.7% below list).
Recommended offer: $202k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

Location reads 65/100 on livability (#701 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Iowa Colony H S (792 students, 56% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents flat; 1445 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 57d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 69% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.

Recommended offer $202,284 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.98% ✗
Cap rate: 4.78%
Cash-on-cash: -5.39%
DSCR: 0.76
GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $281,490
List price: $260,000
Delta: -7.63%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2167 Salinas Dr	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,728 (-1%)	2mo	$280,990	$163	66
2156 Salinas Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,715 (-2%)	1mo	$227,000	$132	65
2164 Salinas Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,782 (+2%)	2mo	$286,990	$161	65
2151 Salinas Dr	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,778 (+2%)	1mo	$287,990	$162	64
2160 Salinas Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5	1,782 (+2%)	2mo	$286,990	$161	64
2147 Salinas Dr	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,778 (+2%)	2mo	$287,990	$162	64
2214 Salinas Dr	0.63mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,777 (+2%)	2mo	$299,991	$169	61
2227 Salinas Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,782 (+2%)	2mo	$298,990	$168	61
2168 Salinas Dr	0.66mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,777 (+2%)	1mo	$294,990	$166	61
2148 Salinas Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,780 (+2%)	0mo	$294,990	$166	60
2159 Salinas Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,782 (+2%)	1mo	$266,990	$150	60
2131 Salinas Dr	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,782 (+2%)	0mo	$247,990	$139	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -29.3%
Equity multiple: 0.05×
Total profit: $-68,983
Equity at exit: $38,767

10-year hold

IRR: -51.7%
Equity multiple: -0.52×
Total profit: $-110,362
Equity at exit: $22,480

Cash invested: $72,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 0 active · 15 under contract
Months of supply: 0.0 mo

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77583

Rents YoY: 0.4%
Active inventory: 1445
Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,556 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
Tax from tax record: −$599 /mo · $7,188/yr
Insurance: −$108
HOA: −$275
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$537
Net cashflow: $-327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,969

Max offer price $202,284

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-180	-5% $-253	+0% $-327	+5% $-400	+10% $-474
Rent	-10% $-529	-5% $-428	+0% $-327	+5% $-226	+10% $-125
Rate	-1.0pp $-196	-0.5pp $-261	base $-327	+0.5pp $-394	+1.0pp $-463

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $65,000
Closing costs: $7,800
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2314 Red Slate Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	4.0	2531	$2,850	$1.13	93d	1	0.48mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,469	$1.43	93d	7	0.55mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,447	$1.41	0d	8	0.55mi
9901 Kilkenny St Iowa Colony, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1735	$2,186	$1.26	30d	1	0.82mi
1816 Corsica Creek Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1770	$2,287	$1.29	0d	17	0.86mi
9518 Peridot Green Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1593	$1,836	$1.15	21d	1	0.97mi
10313 Malta Trace Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1802	$2,545	$1.41	93d	1	0.98mi
9314 Eckert Rd Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	2309	$2,999	$1.30	38d	1	1.25mi
10539 Dolce Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.5	2258	$2,391	$1.06	62d	1	1.29mi
3734 Bach St Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2258	$2,800	$1.24	93d	1	1.31mi
10327 Armstrong Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1956	$2,291	$1.17	93d	1	1.31mi
10526 Cabot Trl Iowa Colony, TX	3.0	2.5	1927	$2,500	$1.30	7d	1	1.36mi
9207 Penfield Dr Arcola, TX	3.0	2.5	1866	$2,121	$1.14	0d	1	1.40mi
4018 Champlain Way Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.5	1897	$1,500	$0.79	56d	1	1.40mi
9423 Grand Spark Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1999	$2,600	$1.30	93d	1	1.48mi
1403 Cascade Hills Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	3.0	2067	$3,450	$1.67	56d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

HOA & community: Sierra Vista POAAnnual association fee of $3,300Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, fitness center, playground, dog park, tennis and sport courts, basketball court, pickleball, trails, maintenance of grounds, and gated community

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garageAttached garage parking
Security: Prewired for securityOwned security system
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
Home design: Residential property2 storiesNorth-facing
Construction: Built in 2025Brick, cement siding, and stone exteriorComposition roofSlab foundation
Exterior features: Backs to greenbelt/parkPond on propertySprinkler/irrigation systemPaved drivewayStorm/security shuttersAssociation pool

Interior

Kitchen: Gas cooktopElectric ovenMicrowaveDishwasherDisposalRefrigeratorKitchen islandQuartz countersWalk-in pantry
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second floor (approx. 13 x 15)Second bedroom on second floor (approx. 10 x 12)Third bedroom on second floor (approx. 10 x 11)
Flooring: CarpetPlankTileVinyl
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)Attic fan
Interior features: Double vanityKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboQuartz countersTub with showerWalk-in pantryCeiling fansProgrammable thermostatInsulated doorsLow emissivity windowsENERGY STAR qualified appliances
Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer includedLaundry in utility room

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $260,000 Active 23 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $260,000 Active 21 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $260,000 Active 20 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $260,000 Active 19 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $260,000 Active 18 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $260,000 Active 15 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $260,000 Active 13 DOM
2026-07-28

pricedays on market $260,000 Active 12 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $265,000 Active 10 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $265,000 Active 8 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $265,000 Active 7 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $265,000 Active 6 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $265,000 Active 5 DOM
2026-07-20

days on market $265,000 Active 4 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $265,000 Active 2 DOM
2026-07-16

pricedays on marketlisting id $265,000 Active 1 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $269,999 Active 53 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $269,999 Active 52 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $269,999 Active 51 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $269,999 Active 50 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $269,999 Active 49 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $269,999 Active 48 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $269,999 Active 46 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $269,999 Active 45 DOM
2026-07-06

pricedays on market $269,999 Active 44 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $279,900 Active 43 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $279,900 Active 42 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $279,900 Active 41 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $279,900 Active 40 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $279,900 Active 39 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $279,900 Active 38 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $279,900 Active 37 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $279,900 Active 36 DOM
2026-06-26

days on market $279,900 Active 35 DOM
2026-06-24

days on market $279,900 Active 33 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $279,900 Active 31 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $279,900 Active 30 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $279,900 Active 27 DOM
2026-06-17

pricedays on market $279,900 Active 26 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $285,000 Active 25 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $285,000 Active 24 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $285,000 Active 22 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $285,000 Active 21 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $285,000 Active 18 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $285,000 Active 17 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $285,000 Active 16 DOM
2026-06-04

days on market $285,000 Active 13 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $285,000 Active 12 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $285,000 Active 11 DOM
2026-06-01

days on market $285,000 Active 10 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $7,188 · $599/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $7,188 · $599/mo
Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $30,670
− Mortgage interest: −$14,564
− Property taxes: −$7,188
− Insurance: −$1,300
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,454
− Management: −$2,454
− HOA: −$3,300
− Depreciation: −$7,564
Taxable loss: −$8,153

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,957
After-tax cash flow: $-1,964/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,750–$26,250 screening

This modern townhome in a desirable location offers a good condition with minimal repairs needed. It has a good resale and rental value with potential for further improvements to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
Resale Kitchen appliances (if needed) — Upgrading appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
Resale Bathroom updates (if needed) — Modernizing bathrooms can increase appeal and value. ↑
Both HVAC system maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and energy efficiency. ↑
Both Landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained exterior can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

High Iowa Colony H S

Schools (NCES district)

District: Alvin ISD
NCES district ID: 4808090
Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
Median HH income: $66,740
Composite: 38.96/100
National rank: #4080
State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Rosharon

Score: 65/100
State rank: #701
US rank: #13120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Brazoria County · 420,414 people
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
Population (ZIP): 52,747
Household income: $119,287
Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 420,414 people
By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
Current HPI: 198.6559
Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-7.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

2026-07-15 Listed $265,000 HARMLS
2026-07-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
2026-07-06 Price Changed $269,999 HARMLS
2026-06-17 Price Changed $279,900 HARMLS
2026-05-22 Listed $285,000 HARMLS
2025-06-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+413.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,188 · +413.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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