9612 S Briar Ave · Lake, MI 49304

$49,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 684 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1970 0.47 ac lot ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to own an affordable up-north property with major improvements completed and the remaining materials included to finish it your way. In the heart of the Chain of Lakes area, this 12x55 mobile home sits on its own land and has been extensively updated. Big ticket items already done include newer steel roof, newer vinyl windows, almost all new drywall throughout, new subflooring, vinyl plank flooring throughout and new rear stairs. Survey markers on corners, covered front porch with chairs included and concrete fire pit with seating area. Public access is nearby at several surrounding lakes. This isn't a full rehab-. .it's a nearly finished project with thousands in materials already purchased and included. Finish it to your taste and build instant equity. Come take a look today!

Key facts

• 0.47 acre lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 50 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric water heater
• Home design: Residential property; Other architectural style; Built in 1970
• Construction: Wood siding; Metal roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Unimproved road access; Well water

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: LP tank owned; 6 total rooms; Windows with screens, replacement/insulated units, and a bay/bow window

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $322 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($825 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.0% vs local median 1.9% in Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Baldwin Community Schools (rural): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #618 of 760 in MI (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $48,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.66%
• DSCR: 2.23
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $147,744
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9614 S Birchwood Dr	0.05mi	2/1.0	700 (+2%)	19mo	$151,000	$216	78
9600 S Oxeye	0.45mi	2/1.0	660 (-4%)	6mo	$195,000	$295	69
9520 S Rainbow Lake Dr	0.33mi	2/1.0	750 (+10%)	1mo	$155,000	$207	68
8312 W Burdock Ave	0.71mi	1/— (-1)	600 (-12%)	22mo	$14,000	$23	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $12,428
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.67×
• Total profit: $37,245
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49304

• Home prices YoY: -30.4%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $825 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $568/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$173
• Net cashflow: $322

Break-even live

Break-even rent $418

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,900 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,900 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,900 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 38 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,900 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $49,900 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Great opportunity to own an affordable up-north property with major improvements completed and the remaining materials included to finish it your way. In the heart of the Chain of Lakes area, this 12x55 mobile home sits on its own land and has been extensively updated. Big ticket items already done include newer steel roof, newer vinyl windows, almost all new drywall throughout, new subflooring, vinyl plank flooring throughout and new rear stairs. Survey markers on corners, covered front porch with chairs included and concrete fire pit with seating area. Public access is nearby at several surrounding lakes. This isn't a full rehab-. .it's a nearly finished project with thousands in materials already purchased and included. Finish it to your taste and build instant equity. Come take a look today!

17. 2026-05-18
    price $49,900 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Great opportunity to own an affordable up-north property with major improvements completed and the remaining materials included to finish it your way. In the heart of the Chain of Lakes area, this 12x55 mobile home sits on its own land and has been extensively updated. Big ticket items already done include newer steel roof, newer vinyl windows, almost all new drywall throughout, new subflooring, vinyl plank flooring throughout and new rear stairs. Survey markers on corners, covered front porch with chairs included and concrete fire pit with seating area. Public access is nearby at several surrounding lakes. This isn't a full rehab-. .it's a nearly finished project with thousands in materials already purchased and included. Finish it to your taste and build instant equity. Come take a look today!

18. 2026-05-18
    price $49,900

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Great opportunity to own an affordable up-north property with major improvements completed and the remaining materials included to finish it your way. In the heart of the Chain of Lakes area, this 12x55 mobile home sits on its own land and has been extensively updated. Big ticket items already done include newer steel roof, newer vinyl windows, almost all new drywall throughout, new subflooring, vinyl plank flooring throughout and new rear stairs. Survey markers on corners, covered front porch with chairs included and concrete fire pit with seating area. Public access is nearby at several surrounding lakes. This isn't a full rehab-. .it's a nearly finished project with thousands in materials already purchased and included. Finish it to your taste and build instant equity. Come take a look today!

19. 2026-04-29
    listed $59,900 Active 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Great opportunity to own an affordable up-north property with major improvements completed and the remaining materials included to finish it your way. In the heart of the Chain of Lakes area, this 12x55 mobile home sits on its own land and has been extensively updated. Big ticket items already done include newer steel roof, newer vinyl windows, almost all new drywall throughout, new subflooring, vinyl plank flooring throughout and new rear stairs. Survey markers on corners, covered front porch with chairs included and concrete fire pit with seating area. Public access is nearby at several surrounding lakes. This isn't a full rehab-. .it's a nearly finished project with thousands in materials already purchased and included. Finish it to your taste and build instant equity. Come take a look today!

20. 2026-04-29
    listed $59,900 Active 806-char remark

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Great opportunity to own an affordable up-north property with major improvements completed and the remaining materials included to finish it your way. In the heart of the Chain of Lakes area, this 12x55 mobile home sits on its own land and has been extensively updated. Big ticket items already done include newer steel roof, newer vinyl windows, almost all new drywall throughout, new subflooring, vinyl plank flooring throughout and new rear stairs. Survey markers on corners, covered front porch with chairs included and concrete fire pit with seating area. Public access is nearby at several surrounding lakes. This isn't a full rehab-. .it's a nearly finished project with thousands in materials already purchased and included. Finish it to your taste and build instant equity. Come take a look today!

21. 2026-04-29
    listed $59,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (806 chars)

    Great opportunity to own an affordable up-north property with major improvements completed and the remaining materials included to finish it your way. In the heart of the Chain of Lakes area, this 12x55 mobile home sits on its own land and has been extensively updated. Big ticket items already done include newer steel roof, newer vinyl windows, almost all new drywall throughout, new subflooring, vinyl plank flooring throughout and new rear stairs. Survey markers on corners, covered front porch with chairs included and concrete fire pit with seating area. Public access is nearby at several surrounding lakes. This isn't a full rehab-. .it's a nearly finished project with thousands in materials already purchased and included. Finish it to your taste and build instant equity. Come take a look today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $568 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $668 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: +$100/yr (+$8/mo · 17.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,902
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$568
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$792
• − Management: −$792
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $3,253
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$781
• After-tax cash flow: $3,084/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2603810
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $27,638
• Composite: 22.56/100
• National rank: #13447
• State rank: #618 of 760 in MI

Livability — Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,680

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,933 people
• By 2030: 10,503 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 9,470 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 8,526 · -22.0%
• By 2075: 7,160 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 5,634 · -48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.2) · D 33.2% · R 65.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.5pp toward R · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: -32.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.2 2020: R+26.2 2016: R+22.9 2012: D+5.0 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.01%
• Current HPI: 116.6025
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-16.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $49,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $49,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $49,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $59,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-29 Listed $59,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $59,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $568 · +71.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.