Spruce Plan · Pendleton, IN 46064

$304,995

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,343 sqft · SingleFamily · 953 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 953 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $304,995

Exterior

• Utilities: Has heating; Has cooling
• Home design: Single-family home (plan) — Spruce; Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area of 2343

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan named Spruce (new construction plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $304,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $372,537.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-165 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $305k).
• Recommended offer: $268k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.3% in Pendleton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#86 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• South Madison Community School Corporation (rural): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #60 of 301 in IN (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 184 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 953 days — a 12% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $268,395 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 953 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.90%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $372,537
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1738 Fair Weather Dr	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,361 (+1%)	2mo	$396,973	$168	78
1485 Bella Rita Ln	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,336 (-0%)	4mo	$352,000	$151	74
278 Cold Springs Dr	0.46mi	4/2.5	2,296 (-2%)	4mo	$364,727	$159	72
1734 Fair Weather Dr	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,495 (+6%)	1mo	$362,802	$145	71
1657 Pebble Beach Dr	0.44mi	4/3.0	2,481 (+6%)	0mo	$418,375	$169	68
1743 Creek Bed Ln	0.33mi	4/2.5	2,176 (-7%)	6mo	$305,000	$140	68
1627 Pebble Beach Dr	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,612 (+12%)	1mo	$379,510	$145	58
166 W Woodland Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,118 (-10%)	4mo	$335,800	$159	55
1731 Fair Weather Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,037 (-13%)	1mo	$360,483	$177	52
1528 Pebble Beach Dr	0.55mi	4/2.0	2,014 (-14%)	0mo	$365,297	$181	49
1611 Pebble Beach Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,037 (-13%)	2mo	$341,539	$168	44
1523 Pebble Beach Dr	0.55mi	4/4.5	2,647 (+13%)	6mo	$395,191	$149	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-70,831
• Equity at exit: $55,546

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-75,025
• Equity at exit: $32,210

Cash invested: $104,310 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46064

• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,050 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,954
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$466 /mo · $5,588/yr
• Insurance: −$155
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$640
• Net cashflow: $-165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,259

Max offer price $348,658

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $93,134
• Closing costs: $11,176
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1620 Creek Bed Ln Pendleton, IN	5.0	3.0	2961	$3,050	$1.03	1d	1	0.38mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $304,995 Active 953 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $304,995 Active 952 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $304,995 Active 951 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $304,995 Active 950 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $304,995 Active 948 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $304,995 Active 947 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $304,995 Active 944 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $304,995 Active 943 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $304,995 Active 942 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $304,995 Active 939 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $304,995 Active 938 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $304,995 Active 937 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $304,995 Active 936 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $304,995 Active 935 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,868
• − Property taxes: −$5,588
• − Insurance: −$1,863
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,928
• − Management: −$2,928
• − Depreciation: −$10,837
• Taxable loss: −$8,412
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,019
• After-tax cash flow: $39/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Madison Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1810440
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $63,565
• Composite: 42.4/100
• National rank: #3231
• State rank: #60 of 301 in IN

Livability — Pendleton

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #86
• US rank: #5014

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pendleton, IN
• City population: 17,730
• Population (ZIP): 17,730

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 125,800 people
• By 2030: 122,640 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 115,420 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 108,148 · -14.0%
• By 2075: 91,838 · -27.0%
• By 2100: 75,670 · -39.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.9) · D 35.6% · R 62.5% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.5pp · 2024: -26.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.9 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+25.7 2012: R+4.5 2008: D+6.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -160.39%
• Current HPI: 227.4921
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B