4604 31st St · Lubbock, TX 79410

$179,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1962 8,750 sqft lot $114/sqft · 14% below area Est $209k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Temporarily off market until after Tech graduation. $7,000 buyer concession to be used anyway buyer chooses. Close to Tech and great for first-time home buyer or investor; .The house has been pre-inspected; , Kitchen is open to the living area and bedrooms are a good size. Carpet only in bedrooms; large backyard House is in a good area and so convenient to everything. Don't miss this well-priced home.

Key facts

• Open to living area
• Close to tech
• 8,750 sq ft lot

Tags

• WALKING DISTANCE TO CORONADO
• CLOSE TO TECH
• OPEN TO LIVING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-112 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $152k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $152k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Overton El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 277 students, 84% FRL); Coronado H S (math 34% / reading 38%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,960 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($169k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $152,036 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.55%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.67%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,025
• List price: $179,950
• Delta: -13.91%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-32,474
• Equity at exit: $26,831

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-21,000
• Equity at exit: $15,559

Cash invested: $50,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79410

• Home prices YoY: -20.8%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,520 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$295 /mo · $3,534/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $-112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,662

Max offer price $160,149

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-10	-5% $-61	+0% $-112	+5% $-163	+10% $-214
Rent	-10% $-232	-5% $-172	+0% $-112	+5% $-52	+10% $8
Rate	-1.0pp $-21	-0.5pp $-66	base $-112	+0.5pp $-159	+1.0pp $-206

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,988
• Closing costs: $5,398
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4702 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,450	$0.91	45d	1	0.10mi
4430 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,100	$0.78	45d	1	0.14mi
4428 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1685	$1,375	$0.82	45d	1	0.15mi
4606 35th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1684	$1,800	$1.07	45d	1	0.24mi
4423 27th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,600	$1.26	23d	1	0.28mi
4304 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,395	$1.19	15d	1	0.39mi
4801 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,275	$0.90	23d	1	0.40mi
2409 Utica Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1693	$1,400	$0.83	23d	1	0.41mi
4818 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,400	$1.09	23d	1	0.43mi
4103 30th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1323	$1,250	$0.94	45d	1	0.51mi
5003 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,550	$1.03	15d	1	0.56mi
5024 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,300	$0.95	23d	1	0.63mi
4817 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,300	$1.04	15d	1	0.66mi
4413 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,350	$1.17	23d	1	0.66mi
4707 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,049	$1.00	15d	1	0.71mi
4315 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1558	$1,450	$0.93	23d	1	0.72mi
4708 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1249	$1,350	$1.08	45d	1	0.74mi
4907 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,200	$1.00	45d	1	0.75mi
3812 36th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,500	$1.03	23d	1	0.76mi
4310 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1754	$1,700	$0.97	45d	1	0.76mi
4619 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,500	$1.07	45d	1	0.77mi
4211 41st St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1960	$1,599	$0.82	45d	1	0.78mi
3807 26th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,500	$1.06	15d	1	0.79mi
3813 25th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1467	$1,400	$0.95	15d	1	0.80mi
4803 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,200	$0.85	23d	1	0.80mi
4815 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,500	$1.17	23d	1	0.83mi
3709 28th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,400	$1.20	23d	1	0.87mi
4819 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,300	$0.92	45d	1	0.89mi
3712 37th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1672	$2,100	$1.26	45d	1	0.90mi
3620 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1146	$1,200	$1.05	23d	1	0.93mi
3709 23rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1107	$950	$0.86	45d	1	0.97mi
4916 46th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,450	$1.05	15d	1	1.02mi
5101 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,350	$1.16	23d	1	1.02mi
5318 39th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1736	$1,375	$0.79	15d	1	1.03mi
5220 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,400	$0.91	23d	1	1.04mi
5002 46th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1369	$1,450	$1.06	45d	1	1.04mi
4109 18th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1516	$1,799	$1.19	45d	1	1.04mi
4602 50th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1080	$1,368	$1.27	15d	9	1.07mi
4108 18th St Unit Lo Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	1171	$1,249	$1.07	15d	1	1.08mi
3604 24th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	3.0	2038	$2,300	$1.13	23d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   Temporarily off market until after Tech graduation. $7,000 buyer concession to be used anyway buyer chooses. Close to Tech and great for first-time home buyer or investor; .The house has been pre-inspected; , Kitchen is open to the living area and bedrooms are a good size. Carpet only in bedrooms; large backyard House is in a good area and so convenient to everything. Don't miss this well-priced home.

2. 2026-05-05
   historical 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   Temporarily off market until after Tech graduation. $7,000 buyer concession to be used anyway buyer chooses. Close to Tech and great for first-time home buyer or investor; .The house has been pre-inspected; , Kitchen is open to the living area and bedrooms are a good size. Carpet only in bedrooms; large backyard House is in a good area and so convenient to everything. Don't miss this well-priced home.

3. 2026-03-18
   price $179,950 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   Temporarily off market until after Tech graduation. $7,000 buyer concession to be used anyway buyer chooses. Close to Tech and great for first-time home buyer or investor; .The house has been pre-inspected; , Kitchen is open to the living area and bedrooms are a good size. Carpet only in bedrooms; large backyard House is in a good area and so convenient to everything. Don't miss this well-priced home.

4. 2026-03-05
   listed $190,000 Active 406-char remark

   Show marketing remark (406 chars)

   Temporarily off market until after Tech graduation. $7,000 buyer concession to be used anyway buyer chooses. Close to Tech and great for first-time home buyer or investor; .The house has been pre-inspected; , Kitchen is open to the living area and bedrooms are a good size. Carpet only in bedrooms; large backyard House is in a good area and so convenient to everything. Don't miss this well-priced home.

5. 2022-02-16
   soldstatus 112-char remark

   Show marketing remark (112 chars)

   Updated with new carpet, paint inside and out, tile, curtains and much more! Looks great! Hurry won't last long.

6. 2022-02-16
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (112 chars)

   Updated with new carpet, paint inside and out, tile, curtains and much more! Looks great! Hurry won't last long.

7. 2022-02-16
   soldstatus

   Show marketing remark (112 chars)

   Updated with new carpet, paint inside and out, tile, curtains and much more! Looks great! Hurry won't last long.

8. 2022-01-13
   listed $180,000 112-char remark

   Show marketing remark (112 chars)

   Updated with new carpet, paint inside and out, tile, curtains and much more! Looks great! Hurry won't last long.

9. 2021-09-01
   listed $175,000
10. 2021-07-12
    listed $175,000
11. 2003-03-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,534 · $295/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,534 · $295/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,244
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,080
• − Property taxes: −$3,534
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,460
• − Management: −$1,460
• − Depreciation: −$5,235
• Taxable loss: −$4,424
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,062
• After-tax cash flow: $-283/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,137
• Household income: $44,537
• Rent vs Own: 67.7% rent · 32.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1068.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 15% Chinese 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.78%
• Current HPI: 272.7482
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.40%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — LARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Delisted — LARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $179,950 LARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $190,000 LARMLS
• 2022-02-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-02-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-02-16 Sold (MLS) — LARMLS
• 2022-01-13 Listed $180,000 LARMLS
• 2021-09-01 Listed $175,000 LARMLS
• 2021-07-12 Listed $175,000 LARMLS
• 2003-03-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,534 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.