1007 Sumner St · Carlinville, IL 62626

$79,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily · 45 Days on market

Built 1935 6,969 sqft lot $75/sqft · at area comps Est $79k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Here's your chance to own a piece of history. This Sears Home was built more than 100 years ago, and is ready for its new owners. 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom with original tile work and tub, nice main floor living area. Fenced back yard and off street parking. Don't miss out on your chance to own a part of history. Contact your Realtor for details. Home is being sold AS-IS, seller will make no repairs or concessions.

Key facts

• Original tile work
• Fenced back yard
• Off street parking

Tags

• ORIGINAL TILE WORK
• FENCED BACK YARD
• OFF STREET PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller may consider concessions

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service by Ameren
• Home design: Single family residence; Two levels; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof; Estimated year built
• Exterior features: Patio; Level lot; Gravel road

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on upper level)
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (upper level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Full basement; Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $237 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 4.5% in Carlinville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#477 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Carlinville CUSD 1 (town): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #168 of 620 in IL (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carlinville Primary School (math 57% / reading 47%, grade C-, #148 of 2,056 statewide, top 8%, 384 students, 0% FRL); Carlinville Middle School (math 23% / reading 38%, grade F, #241 of 665 statewide, top 37%, 286 students, 0% FRL); Carlinville High School (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #126 of 693 statewide, top 21%, 394 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 38% district-wide (38 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 70 units permitted in Macoupin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $550 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macoupin County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $77,115 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.79%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $78,534
• List price: $79,500
• Delta: 1.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
903 N Charles St	0.12mi	3/1.5	1,090 (+3%)	21mo	$45,000	$41	70
624 Sumner St	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (+2%)	10mo	$107,000	$99	65
628 University St	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,140 (+8%)	9mo	$104,000	$91	60
431 Sumner St	0.46mi	3/1.0	940 (-11%)	2mo	$82,500	$88	59
732 Johnson St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,155 (+9%)	17mo	$59,900	$52	57
329 Sumner St	0.54mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (-11%)	9mo	$104,000	$111	43
410 N West St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	965 (-9%)	15mo	$61,000	$63	40
403 N East St	0.52mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,150 (+9%)	23mo	$128,000	$111	37
221 Johnson St	0.66mi	2/2.5 (-1)	900 (-15%)	13mo	$145,000	$161	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $2,258
• Equity at exit: $11,854

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.97×
• Total profit: $21,539
• Equity at exit: $6,874

Cash invested: $22,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62626

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,021 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$417
• Tax from tax record: −$119 /mo · $1,428/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $237

Break-even live

Break-even rent $720

Max offer price $79,500

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $282	-5% $260	+0% $237	+5% $215	+10% $192
Rent	-10% $157	-5% $197	+0% $237	+5% $278	+10% $318
Rate	-1.0pp $277	-0.5pp $258	base $237	+0.5pp $217	+1.0pp $196

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,875
• Closing costs: $2,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
928 Sumner St Carlinville, IL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,000	$0.91	25d	1	0.06mi
213 N East St Unit A Carlinville, IL	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,100	$1.00	25d	1	0.69mi
213 N East St Unit B Carlinville, IL	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,100	$1.00	45d	1	0.69mi
524 N Chiles St Carlinville, IL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	45d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,500 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,500 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,500 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,500 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,500 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,500 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,500 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,500 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,500 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $79,500 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,500 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $79,500 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $79,500 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,500 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,500 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,500 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $79,500 Active 23 DOM
18. 2026-05-07
    listed $79,500 Active 421-char remark
19. 2025-05-06
    soldstatus $79,500
20. 2025-03-10
    historical
21. 2025-02-02
    price $88,700
22. 2025-01-06
    listed $99,900 Active
23. 2010-08-01
    soldstatus $24,000
24. 2003-08-28
    soldstatus $44,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,428 · $119/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,616 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$188/yr (+$16/mo · 13.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,248
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,453
• − Property taxes: −$1,428
• − Insurance: −$398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$980
• − Management: −$980
• − Depreciation: −$2,313
• Taxable income: $1,697
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$407
• After-tax cash flow: $2,440/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlinville CUSD 1
• NCES district ID: 1708430
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $53,617
• Composite: 31.91/100
• National rank: #5854
• State rank: #168 of 620 in IL

Livability — Carlinville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #477
• US rank: #9883

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlinville, IL
• City population: 7,911
• Population (ZIP): 7,911

Population outlook (Macoupin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,867 people
• By 2030: 40,796 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 36,135 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 31,469 · -26.6%
• By 2075: 22,102 · -48.4%
• By 2100: 15,380 · -64.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Macoupin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.2) · D 29.4% · R 68.7% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -49.0pp toward R · 2008: 9.8pp · 2024: -39.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.2 2020: R+36.5 2016: R+35.0 2012: R+7.0 2008: D+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.39%
• Current HPI: 180.5544
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+77.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $79,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $79,500 Public Records
• 2025-03-10 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-02 Price Changed $88,700 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-06 Listed $99,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records
• 2003-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $44,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,428 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.