2301 Monarch Rd · St. Charles, VA 24282

$99,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,369 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 230 Days on market

Built 1935 0.37 ac lot $72/sqft · 165% above area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you are looking for a unique, peaceful beautiful log home in the country with an inground pool (18 ft x 36 ft and 3 1/2 ft to 8 1/2 ft deep), you will love this property! Log Home has been enlarged and lovingly renovated. For nature lovers, a four wheeler trail is approx 1/4 Mi away with access to miles and miles of mountain trails. Two lakes are close by for those loving to fish! The property sits on a nice level lot (public water & sewer) two driveways (one paved, one not), storage bldg (concrete floor) Enjoy relaxing on the front porch while listening to the Peaceful sound of the creek across the street (not in Flood Plain. House Priced according to recent appraisal. Inground Pool is Ready for Your Family To Enjoy!

Key facts

• Front porch
• Landscaped yard
• Enclosed porch

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• INGROUND SWIMMING POOL
• GAS LOG F/P
• KITCHEN DINING COMBO
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• LANDSCAPED YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $200 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lee County Public School District (rural): math 53% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #62 of 131 in VA (top 47%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($684 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Lee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 230 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $99k implies a 482% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1935 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 230 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1935 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.52%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $37,292
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: 165.47%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2533 Monarch Rd	0.22mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,288 (-6%)	15mo	$45,000	$35	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.89×
• Total profit: $24,635
• Equity at exit: $44,515

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.52×
• Total profit: $69,899
• Equity at exit: $68,602

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24282

• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,083 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$29 /mo · $353/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $831

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $256	-5% $228	+0% $200	+5% $172	+10% $144
Rent	-10% $114	-5% $157	+0% $200	+5% $242	+10% $285
Rate	-1.0pp $249	-0.5pp $225	base $200	+0.5pp $174	+1.0pp $148

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,000 Active 230 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 228 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 227 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $99,000 Active 226 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $108,000 Active 226 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $108,000 Active 225 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $108,000 Active 224 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $108,000 Active 223 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $108,000 Active 222 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $108,000 Active 219 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $108,000 Active 218 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $108,000 Active 217 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $108,000 Active 216 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    remarks 699-char remark
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $108,000 Active 213 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $108,000 Active 212 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $108,000 Active 211 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $108,000 Active 210 DOM
19. 2026-04-30
    price $108,000 738-char remark

    Show marketing remark (738 chars)

    If you are looking for a unique, peaceful beautiful log home in the country with an inground pool (18 ft x 36 ft and 3 1/2 ft to 8 1/2 ft deep), you will love this property! Log Home has been enlarged and lovingly renovated. For nature lovers, a four wheeler trail is approx 1/4 Mi away with access to miles and miles of mountain trails. Two lakes are close by for those loving to fish! The property sits on a nice level lot (public water & sewer) two driveways (one paved, one not), storage bldg (concrete floor) Enjoy relaxing on the front porch while listening to the Peaceful sound of the creek across the street (not in Flood Plain. House Priced according to recent appraisal. Inground Pool is Ready for Your Family To Enjoy!

20. 2026-04-30
    status Active 738-char remark

    Show marketing remark (738 chars)

    If you are looking for a unique, peaceful beautiful log home in the country with an inground pool (18 ft x 36 ft and 3 1/2 ft to 8 1/2 ft deep), you will love this property! Log Home has been enlarged and lovingly renovated. For nature lovers, a four wheeler trail is approx 1/4 Mi away with access to miles and miles of mountain trails. Two lakes are close by for those loving to fish! The property sits on a nice level lot (public water & sewer) two driveways (one paved, one not), storage bldg (concrete floor) Enjoy relaxing on the front porch while listening to the Peaceful sound of the creek across the street (not in Flood Plain. House Priced according to recent appraisal. Inground Pool is Ready for Your Family To Enjoy!

21. 2026-04-25
    historical 738-char remark

    Show marketing remark (738 chars)

    If you are looking for a unique, peaceful beautiful log home in the country with an inground pool (18 ft x 36 ft and 3 1/2 ft to 8 1/2 ft deep), you will love this property! Log Home has been enlarged and lovingly renovated. For nature lovers, a four wheeler trail is approx 1/4 Mi away with access to miles and miles of mountain trails. Two lakes are close by for those loving to fish! The property sits on a nice level lot (public water & sewer) two driveways (one paved, one not), storage bldg (concrete floor) Enjoy relaxing on the front porch while listening to the Peaceful sound of the creek across the street (not in Flood Plain. House Priced according to recent appraisal. Inground Pool is Ready for Your Family To Enjoy!

22. 2025-10-24
    listed $115,000 Active 738-char remark

    Show marketing remark (738 chars)

    If you are looking for a unique, peaceful beautiful log home in the country with an inground pool (18 ft x 36 ft and 3 1/2 ft to 8 1/2 ft deep), you will love this property! Log Home has been enlarged and lovingly renovated. For nature lovers, a four wheeler trail is approx 1/4 Mi away with access to miles and miles of mountain trails. Two lakes are close by for those loving to fish! The property sits on a nice level lot (public water & sewer) two driveways (one paved, one not), storage bldg (concrete floor) Enjoy relaxing on the front porch while listening to the Peaceful sound of the creek across the street (not in Flood Plain. House Priced according to recent appraisal. Inground Pool is Ready for Your Family To Enjoy!

23. 2003-03-19
    soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $353 · $29/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $812 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$459/yr (+$38/mo · 130.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 9 d/yr ≥96°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$353
• − Insurance: −$1,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,040
• − Management: −$1,040
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $849
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$204
• After-tax cash flow: $2,191/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102190
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -31.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $31,356
• Composite: 50.06/100
• National rank: #1913
• State rank: #62 of 131 in VA

Livability — St. Charles

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 796

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 22,861 people
• By 2030: 21,701 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 19,188 · -16.1%
• By 2050: 16,619 · -27.3%
• By 2075: 11,795 · -48.4%
• By 2100: 8,290 · -63.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.0) · D 13.8% · R 85.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -43.8pp toward R · 2008: -28.2pp · 2024: -72.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.0 2020: R+69.1 2016: R+63.2 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+535.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $108,000 TVRMLS
• 2026-04-30 Relisted — TVRMLS
• 2026-04-25 Delisted — TVRMLS
• 2025-10-24 Listed $115,000 TVRMLS
• 2003-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $353 · +105.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.