Keller Plan · Lakeway, TX 78669

$520,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,496 sqft · SingleFamily · 139 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.6/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Design a life you love with the Pulte Homes Keller floor plan, a versatile two-story new home designed to fit your lifestyle. Personalize your space with options like a quiet study, extended covered patio, 3-car garage, or a spa-like bath. Enjoy flexible new home construction designed for comfort, style, and everyday living.

Key facts

• Upstairs kids' oasis
• Welcoming entry
• Loft area

Tags

• WELCOMING ENTRY
• FIRST-FLOOR OWNER'S SUITE
• UPSTAIRS KIDS' OASIS
• LOFT AREA

🏗️ New construction. The $520,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $611,795.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $521k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $427k (18.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $373k (28.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $373k (28.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 1.7% in Lakeway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#330 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lake Travis ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #39 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 649 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($128k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($458k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $373,245 (28.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.78%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.96%
• DSCR: 0.60
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $611,795
• List price: $520,990
• Delta: -14.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22409 Rock Wren Rd	0.34mi	4/2.5	2,370 (-5%)	3mo	$520,000	$219	71
5517 Texas Bluebell Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,615 (+5%)	12mo	$510,000	$195	68
22332 Rock Wren Rd	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,674 (+7%)	1mo	$549,000	$205	67
5133 Texas Bluebell Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,286 (-8%)	3mo	$547,000	$239	67
21708 Agarito Ln	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,265 (-9%)	6mo	$525,000	$232	65
21940 Agarito Ln	0.22mi	4/3.5	2,658 (+6%)	11mo	$545,000	$205	64
6016 Sabino Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	2,741 (+10%)	1mo	$579,000	$211	62
22316 Verbena Pkwy	0.53mi	4/3.0	2,382 (-5%)	7mo	$535,000	$225	58
5612 Wild Foxglove Rd	0.27mi	4/3.5	2,840 (+14%)	3mo	$529,000	$186	56
22300 Verbena Pkwy	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,298 (-8%)	8mo	$510,000	$222	53
22300 Chipotle Pass	0.47mi	4/2.0	2,153 (-14%)	10mo	$525,000	$244	46
4603 Diamante Dr	0.62mi	4/3.0	2,843 (+14%)	12mo	$999,000	$351	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-179,206
• Equity at exit: $91,221

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.49×
• Total profit: $-255,133
• Equity at exit: $52,897

Cash invested: $171,303 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78669

• Home prices YoY: -16.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 649
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,732 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,208
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$765 /mo · $9,177/yr
• Insurance: −$255
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$784
• Net cashflow: $-1,279

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,352

Max offer price $426,672

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $152,949
• Closing costs: $18,354
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21824 Agarito Ln Spicewood, TX	5.0	4.0	3253	$3,500	$1.08	2d	1	0.28mi
22212 Coyote Cave Trl Spicewood, TX	5.0	3.0	2900	$3,600	$1.24	43d	1	0.59mi
22208 Coyote Cave Trl Spicewood, TX	4.0	2.0	1796	$2,990	$1.66	22d	1	0.59mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $520,990 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $520,990 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $520,990 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $520,990 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $520,990 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $520,990 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $520,990 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $520,990 Active 128 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $520,990 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $520,990 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $520,990 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $520,990 Active 122 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $520,990 Active 121 DOM
14. 2026-01-31
    listed $520,990 Active 326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    Design a life you love with the Pulte Homes Keller floor plan, a versatile two-story new home designed to fit your lifestyle. Personalize your space with options like a quiet study, extended covered patio, 3-car garage, or a spa-like bath. Enjoy flexible new home construction designed for comfort, style, and everyday living.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,789
• − Mortgage interest: −$34,270
• − Property taxes: −$9,177
• − Insurance: −$3,059
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,583
• − Management: −$3,583
• − Depreciation: −$17,798
• Taxable loss: −$26,680
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,403
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,949/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Travis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826470
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $101,194
• Composite: 55.13/100
• National rank: #1283
• State rank: #39 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lakeway

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #7227

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 22,145
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,592
• Household income: $128,000
• Rent vs Own: 7.9% rent · 92.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 45.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.06%
• Current HPI: 251.3551
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.36%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-31 Listed $520,990 Zillow